Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

What your answers truly reflect, is that not only is the mkt uncertain…, but so are you, and your thoughts – on everything trading related



Unfortunately – I could answer your questions till the cows come home – and I believe nothing would change – for you

I am no different – giving my answers – than the “experts” you’ve already read – and there is absolutely no reason for you to believe me – anymore than you do them

=======================================

I also get from your answers; that you are in a perpetual loop (of doubt, of not trusting, of not believing, of not buying it, of not grasping it)


It goes something like this

I know what I’ve read – I don’t believe it as they may be lying to me to get my money – I know I need a set up – what do I do when it doesn’t work – I know the mkt is uncertain – but I need to know – and I need a set up that works all the time – else I won’t know if it is me – or the set up not working – I know the mkt is uncertain – yet I need to know when to take profits – I know I need to use stops – but I don’t know where to place them – and wherever I place them is random – I know trading involves losing – but I don’t want to lose

on and on and on

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My suggestion;

First;

You need to clear out your head – so figure out how to do that (and as you’ve mentioned tharp – he has a way – try it)

Second;

Pick one instrument – get on a sim – and watch that one instrument – day after day… month after month

At first it will be boring and you won’t know what you’re looking for – or at…

Take notes – and keep watching

Also don’t be hesitant to print out historical charts of that one instrument – and study them

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Take notes on / study what ???

Simply what you are seeing…. specifically what price, volume and time are doing


For at some point what you see will repeat itself – maybe not exactly… but close enough

That close enough will be the makings of your first set up

Also learn where you should be placing a stop for each trade (where that trade fails) – and learn why that is – by reading price, volume and time

==========================

Third;

You must unconditionally accept uncertainty – specifically the uncertainty associated with the mkt… and with trading


These are irrefutable facts – yet you challenge them (question/ doubt/ do not believe);

Every set up will work – and every set up will not work – at times

No one ever knows how far price will go

Every trader loses

A set up is nothing more than a condition where you think price will do one thing over another

To trade consistently successful – requires repetition

No one knows what price will do next

There are no experts

The mkt is uncertain

No one knows

==========================

Our brains – for better or worse – are hardwired to find/ create certainty…

And it’ll go to great lengths to find it – even to the extent of fooling us

The mkt exploits this basic need – repeatedly – and to our detriment


Few things are truly certain

We were born (else we wouldn’t be reading this)

We must have air, water, and food to continue living

We will die


Pretty much everything else is uncertain… including our actions when faced with the mkt’s uncertainty

What we must work toward is making our actions certain –> when we trade –> and with each trade we take – regardless of what the mkt does

And we must repeat these same exact actions – ad infinitum / ad nauseum – until the day we retire, or die

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Honestly Sir..., nothing I say –> can…, or will – change you…

The necessary changes must be within you... and be prompted / perpetuated by you

Above are some steps – tis your choice whether to follow them – or not


Learning to trade… and actually trading – really easy

Learning to think, and act - like a trader – is the real bitch

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I will still answer your previously asked questions if you wish Sir – but I feel my answers will only add to your current confusion



RN

 

RN


I understand what you're saying and you're absolutely right. My state of confusion is where I am right now on my journey.
The good thing about it, is im aware of that.

This whole thing they call trading is really as hard as we want it or as easy as we want it. I've never experienced anything like it in my life. The market is what the market is however we change how we see it through the filters we have over our eyes, those filters being our life experiences, our beliefs, our values.

There is so much information out there, so many people's beliefs, so many ways to trade, so many ideas. I'm more confused about the way i need to go about finding out the answer than what the answer might be.

I want to thank you for your advice and suggestions and specially for your time Sir. You've made more sense to me than any person or book i've read and helped me with a direction.

For the next few months im going to follow your suggestions and really learn what the market is saying. Im not ready to have those previous questions answered Sir however I do thank you for offering.

If I may when the time is right may i ask for your advise again Sir ?



Kind Regards

DT01

 

DT01

You are Very Welcome Sir

And whenever you're ready - ask away


RN

 

PRICELE$$
One of the best posts on ET.
Learn it...love it...live it.
RN, you're what I call "a good'n". RCn10ec

 

RCn10ec

Thank You Very Kindly Sir

RN

 

Sir,

I hope you've been well and trading has been going well for you.


I've been doing allot of research on trading software, data and brokers.
There's allot out there and i understand the decisions made will be made upon my personal preference for what is needed for the job at the current time. I have an idea of what the pro's use and what i would be able to handle myself, not being to compatible in c++ language.

Remembering to keep it simple and remembering what im going to be using it for,,, to analyse time, volume and price. to see, watch and let the market tell me how it moves and trade a pattern from that.


This is my plan:

I'm looking at Multicharts as a platform. maybe ninja trader (its free, is free cheap though ?).

CQG as a data feed. they offer volume data, tick data and all the exchanges.

Broker: Amp Global or Interactive Brokers. or maybe just a Bank like IG markets.



I would just like to know what you think and get your opinion on a few things if that's alright with you Sir ?


1. Is getting data from an alternative source to your broker feed important ?, ( I understand if i was needing it to back test it would be, however im just talking about data to trade and analyse the market ?)

2. What to trade?,

Besides the obvious differences between an auction exchange and a market maker ECN Exchange.
In your opinion is there an advantage to trading through one exchange to another ? is one more transparent or more manipulated than the other ? does it really matter ?

As well as the fundamental difference's between stocks, indices, options, futures and Forex.
I understand with some of these derivative markets im watching, looking and acting upon the underlining market. Trading futures or Indices would you recommend doing this or staying away ?

I need to select a few instruments to analyse so i figured I'd start with one from each sector:

Dow 30
S&P500
Futures: Natural Gas
Stock: I dont really know at the moment.
Forex: AUD/USD

These are just to start off with. I understand once I've watched them for awhile i might find similarities between them and in them. Is this a good idea ?


3. Brokerage: DMA, Market Maker. I understand the fundamental difference's between them. Of the two which is the one you would trade through ?

My plan is to use a basic platform that's easy to use and allow's myself to analyse volume data from that exchange with price and the time that it happens. Obviously I don't have an exact idea of which markets to trade so I am going to start sifting through and trying different markets to see which ones I like. So I want to get a good quality feed of data with access to all markets so i can analyse a basket of them to learn their characters, then once i have an idea of a system, hook up to a brokerage.

I understand we're at where we're at in this game of trading. I would just like to know are there any pointers or advise you could give me ?

Kind Regards

DT01

 

Been right as rain Sir – Thank You for asking

As for trading – win some…, lose some

Of your 3 questions, let’s start with the most important - #2

Imo it doesn't matter what you pick.., but it matters greatly that you pick ONLY ONE – then stick to that one for an extended time…

Just be sure it has enough VOL (1M or more per day)... adequate ATR (movement)... and relatively low/ manageable volatility...
(All 3 of these are potential killers - so please keep them reasonable)

Learn it… inside…, outside…, upside..., downside…, backwards…, and forwards

Learn when its sick.., healthy.., happy… sad…, lethargic (sounds like I’m describing a human doesn't it – go figure)

=====================================================================

Nuances exist between instruments….

Enough that you’ll learn something useful in one..., only to abandon it after switching to another instrument..

When in fact had you only modified your new found knowledge a skosh – it would work on this other instrument(s) just fine

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


As for 1 & 3 – it will really depend on how you ultimately decide to trade


Direct access – will suffice

Direct access – with an addition data feed(s) – will suffice

Calling in your trades – will suffice

Calling in your trades – with a data feed.., sans a direct access platform – will suffice

Again – ultimately depends on how you decide to set up your trading business – as to what tools will serve you best


=============================================================

Regardless the tools – my answer to #2 is most important for learning – imo

Also appreciate this will take some time… all instruments go through cycles…

Not only up/ down cycles we label trends/ pullback/ retracements/ turns/ tops/ bottoms/ ect.

But also daily/ weekly/ monthly/ quarterly / annual / seasonal/ bull/ bear / presidential/ economical cycles

Every instrument does the same thing – but every instrument goes about doing that same thing - uniquely

Every instrument reflects the unique.., but collective – personalities of those trading it - and the internal/ external influences/ struggles they face

========================================================

Learn to read PA / Volume / and Time
Learn the various forms of support and resistance
Learn to create useful context
Learn to identify low risk setups
Learn every thing works – at times… and every thing does not work – at times
Learn and create your rules – then learn to follow your rules – without exception

Do this on one instrument - THEN apply it to others
================================

There is a lot to learn in this business – potentially, and quite probably – there is even more to unlearn - for each of us


It is a journey after all

RN

 

Sir

I get it, I understand what you're saying. Once again Sir Thank you very much for your advice.

One instrument. Price action, volume and time.

Is the type of volume I learn from important?, meaning I'm looking at a few platforms which specialise in order flow, delta volume as well as just the usual type II data where buying and selling of Market Makers is shown (there presence is shown).

Watching, learning and combining the way the volume flows with price is what I've been learning and thinking of doing. There are hundred's of platforms out there, one however that seems to combine price, volume and time all together is Market Delta. Maybe you've heard of them?

In your opinion is it a good idea to learn through a platform like this (market Delta with order flow) or a platform which has Level II data showing Ask and Bid volume OR just stick and learn with the traditional charts, Level I, basic overall volume just like MetaTrader 4 platform ?

Kind Regards

DT01

 

DT01,

Volume is volume… but – as its been my experience – volume on some TFs is more telling and useful than volume on other TFs

As for the MD platform - no opinion


imo – best way to learn – is take some graph paper and a pencil – pick one instrument – and hand graph it

Otherwise – asking which platform is best, FOR YOU – is like asking me; how long is a piece of string – I dunno

===========================================

Please read the following carefully;

Tools will not a trader make… traders are forged out of a human’s conscious / subconscious

To trade successfully

Everything you’ll need to trade – is on a simple ole chart…

But every thing you’ll need to be a trader – resides inside you

===========================================


Final thought;

One sentence you wrote stands head and shoulders above the rest;


“Watching, learning and combining the way the volume flows with price”

The above could quickly evolve into the age ole chicken/ egg bitch fest – until – one learns the way markets really work – then the above sentence is the key

It is not the key – as you wrote it… or the way you mean it – but nonetheless the key is there

The key to trading that is… NOT to becoming a trader – as there will still be those pesky wins, losses, routine, and uncertainty to deal with


RN

 

RN

I hear you, keep it simple and basic.
Its funny when i posted that message up yesterday. I was comparing platforms and was reading some reviews and I came across this quote from one of the traders on Big Mikes Trading Forum:

"Reading the order flow on the order book. What has traded at each price is only half the story, which as i've mentioned in a couple of other posts is why I don't rate software like market delta/md spin offs or stuff like that order flow analytic crap (the worse one i've seen to date)

The way I personally look at it is that it's like boiling an egg. There's two options, the normal way which works fine, or the lazy man way where you go out and buy a $120 gadget that says it will give you the perfect boiled egg every time, but never does, then just breaks.

Carrying on the the analogy, just get a pan and water to boil your egg, it's worked for as long as eggs have existed, you can get it exactly how you want it, and being able to boil an egg is a basic skill you need if you want to be a chef, or in this case a trader.

I understand there are no experts and its an opinion, however I think he makes a good point, along the same lines of yourself.

Alright Sir i'm going to be picking one market and im going to watch it, study it, record it, eat with it, sleep with it, learn it,,,,,Trade what I see. With the the understanding that yes there will be losses and there will be wins, just as long as my bank account is heading upwards im on the right track.

Thank you very much for your time and your advise. Its great knowing that there's people out there like yourself who are so helpful and for that I thank you. I hope you are well and trading goes well for you Sir, until next time.

Happy trading.

DT01