RN, Thank you for getting back to me. --------------------------------- Thank Youâ¦, but straight up â I ain't looking for fans or followers I do - whatever it is I do on this forum⦠because that is what I do â period I Respect that. --------------------------------- Also, call me skeptic, but your posts are a little over the top imo Be that as it may You say youâve been listening to experts and still not doing wellâ¦. But you think listening to me will somehow change that⦠Hmmmâ¦, again call me skeptic. Yes I Mentioned I had listened to experts in the past and didn't do so well. Listening to you may or may not change that. call me skeptic, but how do I know I'm not listening to an expert right now ?, I don't. --------------------------------- You have questions, ask away right here in this thread â Iâll answer the best I can â IF â You first answer one question of mine How do you think I â could help You â be a better trader? I've been thinking what I should say here, There is no right or wrong answer, just an answer. So here goes; You could help me by answering some of the questions that I have about what you Sir and Mr Nysestock's have conversed about on this thread to help me narrow down and better understand what the obvious may be. I'll only know if im a better trader when the money in my bank account starts moving in a positive direction. Cheers DT01
RN Thank you for getting back to me. I wrote you earlier but for some reason it didn't show up on here. ------------------------- Thank Youâ¦, but straight up â I ain't looking for fans or followers I do - whatever it is I do on this forum⦠because that is what I do â period I can respect that. ------------------------- Also, call me skeptic, but your posts are a little over the top imo Be that as it may You say youâve been listening to experts and still not doing wellâ¦. But you think listening to me will somehow change that⦠Hmmmâ¦, again call me skeptic Yes I mentioned I was listening to experts and not doing so well. Listening to you may change that or may not. You have however got me to really think out of the box and to think for myself, is this a good or bad thing maybe yes maybe not. Call me skeptic, but I may be listening to another expert right now ------------------------- You have questions, ask away right here in this thread â Iâll answer the best I can â IF â You first answer one question of mine =============================== How do you think I â could help You â be a better trader? I guess there's no right or wrong answer here, so here goes; I think you could help me by answering some of the questions I have. By doing so I believe it would help me better understand some of the key points and view's you Sir and Mr Nysestocks discussed on this thread. Thus helping narrow down what the obvious may or may not be. I'll only know if im a better trader when my bank account starts moving in a positive direction. (consistently) cheers DT01
RN Thank you for getting back to me. I wrote you earlier but for some reason it didn't show up on here. This is my 3rd time trying to post on this thread so appologies if a few duplicates show up in the future. ------------------------- Thank Youâ¦, but straight up â I ain't looking for fans or followers I do - whatever it is I do on this forum⦠because that is what I do â period I can respect that. ------------------------- Also, call me skeptic, but your posts are a little over the top imo Be that as it may You say youâve been listening to experts and still not doing wellâ¦. But you think listening to me will somehow change that⦠Hmmmâ¦, again call me skeptic Yes I mentioned I was listening to experts and not doing so well. Listening to you may change that or may not. You have however got me to really think out of the box and to think for myself, is this a good or bad thing maybe yes maybe not. Call me skeptic, but I may be listening to another expert right now ------------------------- You have questions, ask away right here in this thread â Iâll answer the best I can â IF â You first answer one question of mine =============================== How do you think I â could help You â be a better trader? I guess there's no right or wrong answer here, so here goes; I think you could help me by answering some of the questions I have. By doing so I believe it would help me better understand some of the key points and views you Sir and Mr Nysestocks discussed on this thread. Thus helping narrow down what the obvious may or may not be. I'll only know if im a better trader when my bank account starts moving in a positive direction. (consistently) cheers DT01
DT01 Ask away, I'll do my best to answer Also - have no doubt - Thinking for our self - bar none, is the best..., and in this business - especially necessary RN
RN "Most traders do not have a clue about how to take money from other traders on a daily basis." 1. Who are most traders ? 2. who are the other traders ? 3. Can "Other traders" be different depending on what you're trading (stock, options, futures, forex) "Volatility is nothing more than wide ranges on a chart - you do not need Mr Boloxinger or any of that rubbish to help you pick the money from the palms of other traders." 4. I understand we dont need indicators, are trendlines, support and resistance also out of the question ? 5. Patterns may or may not repeat history, in the short clip from the matrix in the deja vu scene where Neo see's the black cat walking by twice signals that there has been a change in the matrix. Is this or could there be a visual pattern of price movement that is needed to be seen that signals that the whale is going to come to the surface soon and we must be ready ? 6. Nysestocks mentions we need superior information to help produce consistent results. Is the information available to the majority ? Could $PREM be of assistance in discovering the right frequency of the whale? 7. BLASH and SHABL about 90%, 90%-95% fail at being able to become successful at trading, is this related ? 8. BHASH and SLABL about 10%, is this 10% the small percentage of people whom are successful at trading? 9. A widely used setup used by S&P pit traders use OTF is it a necessity to fully understand how and when this is happening? 10. Randomness and Perception. "Maybe they are unaware that it is a gamble, and if they are to gamble, then they need to have some sort of way of putting the odds in their favor, but as we know the usual stuff is of no real value, else it would not be made available to the public, then what are we supposed to do? He mentions we need to put the odds in our favour, We dont know whats going to happen next, I don't know when price is high or low. To be successful at gambling is to place small bets whilst putting the odds as much as possible in your favour. So I've read. To put the odds in ones favour: (a) Is it by recognising a place on the chart (a certain pattern or style of price movement) that places the odds in our favour ? (b) Instead of just looking at price action has time on a chart have anything to do with putting the odds in your favour? Is there any correlation of price and time that is important in needing to know to help with making a trading decision, is time or the calculation of time part of in anyway to do with the obvious? (c) MTFA could this help in putting the odds in my favour ? (d) Is it something to do with how I execute my orders where I place the odds in my favour?. For example if i were to place Buy and sell lines 5 pips away with 10-15 pip take profit and if price were to move up i'm long if it moves down i'm short and knocked out of my long position either way im in. I do however pay if price moves up and down like a yoyo between the buy and sell stop loss. (e) Do I need to know the odds that price will move in a certain direction more than another? is there a way of knowing this ? (f) Profit vs Risk ratio vs probability of success on a trade which is more important ? (g) Is back testing necessary ? (h) Does the obvious require a kind of algorithm like the monte carlo method or kellys algorithm ? (i) In gambling when and if bank is bust we stop and leave the table, does the obvious require the same kind of strategy? Or can the obvious be traded in a way where you need to be trading it all the time for it to be successful ? (j) A casino has the odds over its patrons, it doesn't care where its roulette ball lands on the next spin or what the next card is going to be in Black jack all it knows is that it has the edge over its patrons on every game and if it gets people playing long enough it'll win in the long term. That as well as patrons will give most of their winnings back. Does the obvious require a person to trade how a casino operates and play's it's game ? If I were to trade as if it didn't matter what was going to happen next, it didn't matter if price was high or low but to just trade in a way where bets are executed where i loose little and win bigger long or short. Is this a way the obvious would be traded ? 11. "Look at what PDA means, and it is not that stupid little thing that allows you to trade when you are sitting on the jacks wiping your bottom with the WSJ paper" PDA does it mean; (a) Probabilistic Data Association (algorithm for detecting radar target in clutter) " used by NASA could this technology help with picking up the probability of which way price will move next ? (b) Probabilistic Data Association ? (c) Price discovery Analysis ? (d) Are or does any of these have anything to do with what the obvious may be ? 12. Is the obvious a discretionary way of trading or is it based on math, science and algorithms? 13. One of my last but not least questions for now is besides BOYD "the fighter pilot who changed the art of war" Nysestocks mentioned there was another book that would help with revealing the relative obvious but not the obvious. He mentioned he would hint which book it was "let me give a good one, I will update post shortly. " RN smiles after a very interesting one" would you happen to know which book he was talking about ? Kind Regards DT01
The market is already cracked,no need for ooda.NASA uses probability since the Universe is the unknown subject for them,for the most part.The market is already known.
DN01 1-3; There are traders who trade with purposeful intent â then there is everyone else Subsets of the above include, but are not limited to; big money, dumb money, smart money, institutions, day and swing traders, mom & pops, addicts⦠junkies, egomaniacs.. ad infinitum Both type reside in all mkts 4; imo trend lines, S/R, and an ema are quite adequate (However I fully acknowledge there are more way to trade successfully than I can count â so I would never disparage another trader, or their chosen tools) 5; Absolutely â and itâs obvious â but its not the obvious discussed in this thread 6; Yes it is available to all â unfortunately oneâs filter(s) make it near impossible to see/ As for $PREM being of assistance â I donât know 7; Yes Sir â max profit of any move â is always entering nearest to the beginning â of that move as possibly 8; No clue if thatâs has anything to do w/ the 10% (or whatever %) of people trading successfully â it has to do with seeing a trend⦠trusting it⦠then hopping on board 9; imo absolutely (but my trading is also as simple as shit) 10; Its going to sound as if Iâm talking out of both sides of my mouth â but Iâm really not Yes â the mky is uncertain Yes â each tradeâs outcome is uncertain Yes â we donât know what is going to happen next Yes we never know what is high or low And I proved trading is unlike gambling â to NY Above are all Irrefutable facts a) Yes b) Price and time are inseparable, as is volume â but all 3 occur on their own accord I do not believe time is part of the obvious referenced in this thread â but it could be c) Yes d) I assume you are referring to a bracket order â if so then I canât answer because I donât use them e) Both side of my mouth again â The mkt is uncertain â so all odds is 50/50 at best / having said that yes you can tell when the you are on the correct side of the mkt â then the odds become almost 100 (baring shocks to the system) f) How much you are risking is ALWAYS number 1 â and no one ever knows how much profit is available for any given trade g) For this response Iâll define back testing as; reviewing historical charts in order to become adept at identifying patters/ PA as it develops⦠Also I donât use the term patterns to mean pattern(s) commonly found in a book⦠Iâm referring to the pattern created by the mkt itself Yes â it is necessary â and I often refer to past history to get a read/ reference/ bearing on current trading h) Not to my knowledge â but then I can only speak referencing how I trade i) If youâre asking if we need to be in the mkt 100% of the time â no way in hell⦠always pick and choose your battles carefully⦠if youâre asking if we should stop trading after a windfall / or significant loss â every trade is separate and independent of every other trade⦠The real question to ask is; are you (mr/mrs trader) clearheaded and dispassionate enough to continue j) Have a set up (the actual set up doesnât matter â it only needs to be reasonable â then Every time your set up materializes â trade it Every loser â keep it small (and obviously each stop should be placed at a point (price) where that trade fails â as setting it any place else is simply wasting money) Every winner â let it run till its time to exit (and as no one ever knows how far price will run - for every given trade â you'll need to figure out a way to identify when it is time to exit that winner) 11; a) idk b) idk c) idk d) directly â no btw â I will never divulge someone elseâs stuff â need to ask NY⦠or possibly TO 12; I trade discretionary⦠and Iâm pretty sure NY does to 13; idk â NY had some stuff he was willing to share.., other stuff he was not (understandably) Any question I did not answer to your satisfaction Sir â just let me know RN
RN Thank you for getting back to me and answering my questions. Before I get back to some of the questions. if its ok with you would you mind if i asked you some questions about yourself ? I was just wanting to know; i. how long have you been trading for ? ii. how long did it take you as a trader before your bank account was moving in an upward direction consistently ? iii. Do you know what the obvious is Mr Nysestocks talks about ? iv. Besides being a discretionary trader, what type of trader would you classify yourself as (swing, long term, breakout, all rounder i understand these are all expert terms ?) 1-3; There are traders who trade with purposeful intent â then there is everyone else Subsets of the above include, but are not limited to; big money, dumb money, smart money, institutions, day and swing traders, mom & pops, addicts⦠junkies, egomaniacs.. ad infinitum 1a. Does the obvious require me to know the difference between these people ? Both type reside in all mkts 1b. Are the odds placed more in my favour by trading certain markets over others? like stocks over forex or forex over options or are they just all the same ? 4; imo trend lines, S/R, and an ema are quite adequate (However I fully acknowledge there are more way to trade successfully than I can count â so I would never disparage another trader, or their chosen tools) 4a. Is the obvious combined with support/resistance and trend lines ? 4b. Is an ema a great tool to use to tell when price may be moving in one direction over another ? 5; Absolutely â and itâs obvious â but its not the obvious discussed in this thread 5a. The obvious discussed in this thread, if i found out what it is today could it be put into action immediately ? 5b. Could it start turning my bank account instantly or would it take awhile to put into action ? 6; Yes it is available to all â unfortunately oneâs filter(s) make it near impossible to see/ As for $PREM being of assistance â I donât know It's available to us all: what do do you mean by filters: 6a. Psychological filters ? 6b. Indicator type filters ? 6c. Chart filters like bar graphs, candles, point and figure charts etc. 6d. Another type ? 7; Yes Sir â max profit of any move â is always entering nearest to the beginning â of that move as possibly 7a. Is it more beneficial to BLASH and SHABL than to BHASH/SLABL 8; No clue if thatâs has anything to do w/ the 10% (or whatever %) of people trading successfully â it has to do with seeing a trend⦠trusting it⦠then hopping on board 8a. Are you putting the odds more in your favour by BHASH and or SLABL 9. A widely used setup used by S&P pit traders use OTF is it a necessity to fully understand how and when this is happening? 9; imo absolutely (but my trading is also as simple as shit) 9a. Do you watch for how price is moving to figure this out or do you use some other way of figuring out when OTF is happening? 10; Its going to sound as if Iâm talking out of both sides of my mouth â but Iâm really not Yes â the mky is uncertain Yes â each tradeâs outcome is uncertain Yes â we donât know what is going to happen next Yes we never know what is high or low And I proved trading is unlike gambling â to NY Above are all Irrefutable facts a) Yes a.i Can i learn to see this ? a.ii What can I do to help me learn what i need to see to be able to put the odds greatly in my favour ? b) Price and time are inseparable, as is volume â but all 3 occur on their own accord b.i If forex is a derivative and i'm guessing the volume shown to me is solely based on the ECN i trade through, could that be helpful to making a trading decision in ny way ? I do not believe time is part of the obvious referenced in this thread â but it could be b.ii It could be in what way ? c) Yes c.i When you say yes do you mean you look for a set up on lets say a month or week chart then use lets say a 15 min chart to enter the trade ? or c.ii DO you recognise a buy set up on a month or week and only look to buy through a smaller timeframe like a 15 min ? d) I assume you are referring to a bracket order â if so then I canât answer because I donât use them Yes I was Sir. e) Both side of my mouth again â The mkt is uncertain â so all odds is 50/50 at best / having said that yes you can tell when the you are on the correct side of the mkt â then the odds become almost 100 (baring shocks to the system) e.i Besides the obvious of me maybe thinking differently and going down the path of testing different systems, watching price, looking at MTFA. If those are even a way to find out. How did you come across this method or way of knowning the odds become almost 100 in a market that is completly random. If we have no idea what is high or low and the odds are 50/50. Is it just as simple as just buying at one point of the chart with a short stop and not being greedy making sure you take profit more than you loose ? f) How much you are risking is ALWAYS number 1 â and no one ever knows how much profit is available for any given trade f.i I've been told and guess 1% is a good place to start, honestly thats also how im still in this game . g) For this response Iâll define back testing as; reviewing historical charts in order to become adept at identifying patters/ PA as it develops⦠Also I donât use the term patterns to mean pattern(s) commonly found in a book⦠Iâm referring to the pattern created by the mkt itself The market creates patterns experts write about and put labels on them. The pattern you see that the market has created; g.i Theres allot of books out there could this pattern not have already been mentioned in a book by an expert ? g.ii Is this pattern shown on every chart wether its a bar chart, candle stick, point or figure ? g.iii Is this pattern seen on forex charts, stock charts, option charts all types of markets ? g.iv Does this pattern signal to you wether you should be buying it or just selling it ? g.v Does the pattern signal to you when it is time to get out of the market? g.vi If and when the pattern occurs and you take the trade and it fails, do you take the trade again at the exact same point of entry ? g.vii Do you use any other markets to help with correlation of taking a trade or not ? g.viii Is this pattern part of the obvious Mr Nysestocks talks about ? Yes â it is necessary â and I often refer to past history to get a read/ reference/ bearing on current trading g.ix Does this pattern change and constantly need to be recognised through knowing where a current market is ? g.x You mentioned bearing on a current market ? what do you mean by that ? g.xi Has this pattern always been visible in the markets? through history ? h) Not to my knowledge â but then I can only speak referencing how I trade h.i I understand Sir. i) If youâre asking if we need to be in the mkt 100% of the time â no way in hell⦠always pick and choose your battles carefully⦠i.i Pick and choose, what happens if all the trades you pick when lets say you're awake are failures and when you're sleeping all the trade setups which present themselves are successful. how ever you're not there to take the trades. How do you go about this? i.ii Just like you mention in the answer below every trade is seperate and independent of every other trade. If you take 5 trades and they all fail and you're not able to take the next 5 which in turn could be winners how do you work around this opportunity cost? if youâre asking if we should stop trading after a windfall / or significant loss â every trade is separate and independent of every other trade⦠The real question to ask is; are you (mr/mrs trader) clearheaded and dispassionate enough to continue j) Have a set up (the actual set up doesnât matter â it only needs to be reasonable â then Every time your set up materializes â trade it Every loser â keep it small (and obviously each stop should be placed at a point (price) where that trade fails â as setting it any place else is simply wasting money) Every winner â let it run till its time to exit (and as no one ever knows how far price will run - for every given trade â you'll need to figure out a way to identify when it is time to exit that winner) j.i Cut your losses short and let your winners run. Is it really just that simple as having a simple set up even a fib set up and taking the setup every time no matter what ? I've been told that thats how we need to trade however the reason why so many fail is due to the fact that they dont stick to their system ? but this is what the experts have said like Dr Van Tharp, Richard Dennis, Dan Gramza, Ed Seycota etc etc. 11; a) idk b) idk c) idk d) directly â no Indirectly may of be some use ? btw â I will never divulge someone elseâs stuff â need to ask NY⦠or possibly TO I respect that, I'll keep looking for the hint Sir. 12; I trade discretionary⦠and Iâm pretty sure NY does to 13; idk â NY had some stuff he was willing to share.., other stuff he was not (understandably) I understand Sir. Any question I did not answer to your satisfaction Sir â just let me know Do I need to know what others are thinking and where they are trading to be able to understand the obvious more or is the obvious as simple as a PA pattern that occurs and i need to be there ready to take advantage of it? Thank you for your time. Kind Regards DT01
Morning DT01 (and apologies for misspelling your name in my last post) Although admittedly I am a crass redneck, details do matter ========================================== As I can see youâre a trader of few wordsâ¦, we may as well get to the point Iâll be more than glad to answer the questions you last posted â if you but once again answer one for me first â w/ some stipulations Your answer; Must be well thought out Must make sense Must answer my question specifically, and be specific And we must assume the set up is reasonable iow â buying support in a DTâ¦. or selling resistance in an UT -> Is not reasonable â unless one is adept at picking potential turns and/or scalping potential pullbacks ===================================== My question; Why would the below not work.., assuming a trader actually stuck to their system â whatever that system be =================================================== Have a set up (the actual set up doesnât matter â it only needs to be reasonable) â then Every time your set up materializes â trade it Every loser â keep it small (and obviously each stop should be placed at a point (price) where that trade fails â as setting it any place else is simply wasting money) Every winner â let it run till its time to exit (and as no one ever knows how far price will run - for every given trade â you'll need to figure out a way to identify when it is time to exit that winner) +++++++++++++++++ Cut your losses short and let your winners run. Is it really just that simple as having a simple set up even a fib set up and taking the setup every time no matter what ? I've been told that thatâs how we need to trade however the reason why so many fail is due to the fact that they donât stick to their system ? but this is what the experts have said like Dr Van Tharp, Richard Dennis, Dan Gramza, Ed Seycota etc etc. +++++++++++++++++++++ For if something ainât â then surly it must be btw â there are no experts⦠but there are some pretty damn good traders (not specifically saying tharp is or isnât â because I donât know) ========================================= âWhy should I care what other people think of me? I am who I am. And who I wanna be.â RN
Good Evening RN No worries Sir. Your answer; Must be well thought out Must make sense Must answer my question specifically, and be specific And we must assume the set up is reasonable iow â buying support in a DTâ¦. or selling resistance in an UT -> Is not reasonable â unless one is adept at picking potential turns and/or scalping potential pullbacks ===================================== My question; Why would the below not work.., assuming a trader actually stuck to their system â whatever that system be =================================================== why would it not work, well there is no reason why it shouldn't and there is no reason why it should. The only way a trader will find out is if he follows that system's rules diligently without veering from them in any way. I'm aware that i dont know anything and what i am about to share and say are my beliefs and only that: Have a set up (the actual set up doesnât matter â it only needs to be reasonable) â then Every time your set up materializes â trade it I believe that a set up is a good idea however that's what i learnt in books that so called experts have written. Maybe were taught to trade this way for a reason, so the other traders will be able to take our money from us with ease. I believe that I do not know what is high nor low, neither know what is going to happen next and that every trade is separate and independent of every other trade. I believe having a setup may work for a certain period of time. However may not work as the market's move and change as price plays, a set up used today may be of no use tomorrow. Maybe its just a simple drawdown or the system is faulty. I believe i may sometimes confuse drawdowns to a system not working. The only way im going to know is if I trade the setup diligently sticking to every rule along the way. Every loser â keep it small (and obviously each stop should be placed at a point (price) where that trade fails â as setting it any place else is simply wasting money) Every winner â let it run till its time to exit (and as no one ever knows how far price will run - for every given trade â you'll need to figure out a way to identify when it is time to exit that winner) I believe that keeping losses small is very important, however i dont know whats going to happen next so placing a stop where i may think price may fail ? is randomly placing a stop on a chart 'hoping' price doesn't execute the trade. Cutting losses short and letting winners run I believe works in a random environment. I agree Sir no one knows how far price will run. Something I struggle on is identifying when it is a good time to exit a winner. Am i cutting my winners short by exiting now or as we know each and every trade is separate am i stoping this winner from turning into a loser. I will only find out when I learn the probability of certain signals happening over others through trading my system. Something i ponder is whilst trying to find a system that works and testing and curve fitting it to a market. Do my beliefs lead me away from following a system completely through, at first signs of the system having a draw down i usually hang on however by the third drawdown im convinced the system is not holding up to the current market and i need to change it to make it work. This has always confused me, is it my system or is it the current market which is not working with the system. I don't know. Im aware that my answer/s is for and against and that is what may be the cause of whats holding me back. Kind Regards DT01