Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. Redneck

    Redneck


    I’m sure….


    ============================================

    I PM’d you, and a few others, a bit of information – if I had wanted it shared with the world - did you ever think that I would have

    You violated a trust

    ========================

    It would have been nice to have a somewhat quiet place on the net to have an open dialog about actual trading

    You blew that one to hell

    ========================

    The lookie what I found;

    You didn’t find shit, I sent you the link, that TO sent me ..

    You lied


    I’m not sure if you wanted the attention…, was trying to impress others…, wanted to draw attention (where it was not wanted)… trying to draw detractors (again where they were not wanted)… or trying to show you had some sort of inside scoop

    I don’t know…I don’t care…

    What I do know is this;

    There was absolutely no reason to post that link

    There was no reason to “shove it” in anyone’s face

    And there was absolutely no reason to bring attention…. or instigate detractors


    None…, whatsoever

    Btw;

    If only you had taken some initiative and investigated, you would see some folks already reside at both locations, (and no I am not referring to the “group”)… so word would have eventually gotten around anyway…

    But in the meantime – we would have had a rare opportunity for a bit of unmolested and straightforward conservation

    =========================

    I’m here to tell ya; it’ll be a cold day in hell before I ever post to you again

    ==========================

    I am completely disgusted… and disappointed

    I don’t like my trust betrayed

    I damn sure don’t like liars

    As for the “lookie what I found” – choke on it

    And an opportunity fubar’d - for f'n no reason

    Schools out dumbass

    RN
     
    #3341     Jul 20, 2012
  2. Elsewhere a person named HatetoRisk mentioned that he had entries and exits down quite well but he was really anxious about the hold in between.

    So I responded to him to divide this hold time into portions that could be handled in different ways. This would make only a few bars something to be concerned about during hold.

    Later I posted a sketch of a trend where I noted particular important things. That illustration had a file name HatetoRisk chart.

    the period you are speaking of had only one kind of reversal class. The class was named on that chart as "Quickies". Further, the chart shows that quickies can only happen in the beginning of a trend AND the trend terminates with the given quickie.

    I also did the "quant" on the quickies elswhere.

    So you have now discovered how the "context" of trading trends becomes so important.

    This goes a long ways towards making the obvious MORE obvious.

    Always turn to the notion or idea that it is very important to keep on the correct side of the market. One of the visuals for this is how the price is moving toward the dominant (right to left) or how and when a retrace is there momentarily (left to right) to set the scene for a quickie end effect.

    During any day I have five reference three ring binders concurrently being flipped to provide the richness of the facets of the OOE's in the interrelated "sets" of trend information. On weekends I just write and merge illustrations.

    It is beginning to look like a very classy movie can be done. we can have a bunch of "guys" named joe and Bert and hypo hovering all around me tading. They would all be like the "Ted" character of the movie "Ted".

    Ted keep writing letters to Hasbro about why his stuffed teddy bear image did not have a "dick". It is the same for these other "guys"; they have missing "stuff" so they can't get the job done. Humor would go far is showing these degrees of freedom that are not so obvious.

    Look at the chunks ending on 14, 17, and 22. The lead in reversals were on bars 4 and 9.
     
    #3342     Jul 20, 2012
  3. I am deeply sorry and humbled sir for this transgression. You are absolutely right, I didn't find it, so I lied. And I breached the trust in doing so.

    I wasn't seeking attention, far from it, never did.

    I did check out the place and various threads but didn't see any familiar names (granted I am not familiar with many on ET). I was hoping there would be some interest generated from the new as well as the old crowd.

    That lack of response or impatience if you will combined with momentary lapse of reason made me post the link for others to see.

    Yes, the wording was cheesy, I apologize again for that.

    Knowledge is the only thing which multiplies when shared. Keeping it confined does a disservice to both the holder and the seeker.

    I hope you will forgive me some day.

    I wish you very well in your trading and life in general.

    My apologies once again.

    Regards,
    ML
     
    #3343     Jul 20, 2012
  4. river

    river

    I appreciate your detailed answers to my recent questions in this thread. Thank you.

    I must have missed your exchange with HATEtheRisk.

    I’m still trying to differentiate these “quickies”. Is there a list of these 7 quickies and the 10 other kinds or is this left up to us to try to deduce from information you have provide so far?

    Off to the Laurel Highlands; it’s time again for the annual pilgrimage to Idlewild…

    -river
     
    #3344     Jul 21, 2012
  5. So far in two threads I have posted three day series that contain both calls and trades taken.

    The list is well over the p> 0.05 requirement.

    each three day process yielded on several analysis columns of Excel's that by trading a minimum of contracts and compounding contracts, that a person's capital is doubled. The take is also less than the market's offer.

    The first two times I mentioned the analytic methodology to "sort" End Effects you either missed or did not apply it.

    This time I recommend strongly that you get your Excels up to speed and merge the Excels

    Everyone now knows the market has a Pattern and they know the price part of the Pattern overlaps. eveyone has heard that the RDBMS type approach Is the only analytical tool to use to measure the categories and their relationship to one another.

    You also know there are five interlocking and interrelated OOE's involved.

    i have mentioned that there are 24 tables to be used in coding the SQL which is a system of deploying SQL.

    you now have the end of day and its carryover in the bag and you can use it eveyday.

    I did a "read" of hatetherisk's bar by bar major problems and gave him TWO major ways to reduce his problem by two mesures that handled 50% of the problem as a first 50% and then a second 50% of his residue.

    There is a lurker here who is focusing on me to not be able to understand his perplaxing difficulties. Eliminate from yourself his difficulties.

    The pattern has five volume named pieces and one of them has six subparts total (four new parts in addition to the one that began and was first divied into two almost original parts).

    Keynes is very clear so is Carnap.

    You have few choices.

    I believe you have made the following corerect unique required choices:

    1. You chose to deduce building a system.

    2. You deduced that the combo of granularity and market participants having sentiment only permits that market segments (I call them trends) MUST overlap.

    3. You now know that a trend MUST begin when the trend overlap begins.

    The above cannot be gibberish nor babble. It is deduced from market unintended characterisitcs that were totally unknown to the creators and managers of markets.

    Convention holds that the financial industry just "grew" like "Topsy".

    there are movies that appear to be historical documentaries of the financial industry giving up its integrity and replacing it with willful criminal un detected behavior. See the comedy "inside Job"

    Nothing has changed, though, for making money by taking the full ofefr of the markets. the markets operate by human psychology and this ages old behavior is translatable into mathematics ONLY IF YOU UWE THE MATHEMATICS OF THE MARKETS.

    I HAVE PROVIDED TO ANY USR, THE pATTERN.

    I HAVE DEFINED THE PIECES OF THE PATTERN AND i DID IT MATHEMATICALLY.

    Handel covered the resulting power musically.

    Sister Montisori took the trouble to dd color to her pieces. Little children built in their minds Arithmetic as a consequence.

    You sit with the pieces. You know that the PATTERN is a magnificent creation.

    I have posted how there are brief duration trends where the full offer of the market is taken.

    So you pick up a piece and only use that piece for a few bars and you complete a trend segment.

    Can you imagine a chalid learning that 2 plus 2 plus 2 is a a blue stick. The blue stick is in a class called an "answer". teend segments are callede "anwsers to the problem of a complete offer of the market in a given sentiment.

    Children learned addition, subtraction multiplication and division.

    I worked at IBM when multiplication was called "repeated Addition". we named one factor by one name and the other factor by another name. then we sat there and decided how to make 12AU7's into little montisori rods that became known as bi stable multivibrators.

    In trading and getting very very rich very very fast, you have to do what IBM called "THINK".

    The market is divided into pieces. the pieces have names. the pieces can be put together like NO ONE EVER BELIEVED!!!!!!

    I have said that there is nothing new for 54 years.

    In designing computers, it was decided to do it with an application in mind. IBMhad a Heaven. It was called Endicott. they made cards go through a sorter at 5,000 a minute. then they made cards go through at 8,000 a minute. I had a responsibility in poughkeepsie to make chacks got through a sorter even if the checks were bent spindled or mutilated. How? put more magnetic ink in characters and put the ABA in an audience candccollect checkes they fucked up and sort them flawlessly. the night becore a computer got filled with aexcfess water from an over head AC.... BUT we sorted those checks the next AM.

    I could sort checks visually and tell you what damage was the most dangerous.

    I gave you over 100 trend segments. I gave you the pieces. I told you how to analize the sample.

    I got to stand behind all the bankers and give a high sign to the stage to "run the sort" wqhen the baskets were collected. I knew the bankers in the audience coul;d not fuck up a check.

    So I am working here on trying to get you to THINL further with the pieces and then "know that you know".

    there is only a finite number of ways to fuck up a chanck when a banker is doing it.

    Today, as you saqw in inside job there are only so many ways the "cheaters in the finanial industry" can fuck up a trend segment .

    See if you can THINK through wht I know that no one else knows so far. NO ONE ELSE.

    sister montessori, finally remembered the spelling, is looking at poor children and she has no money to teach them. BUT she can THINK. So she does the THINKING just once. And from then on poorness was not abarrier ofr children in mathematics.

    I want to build minds that can be filled with ingredients to take the full market's offer.

    Take the detractors. They are so poor mentally that they do not have a START button left on their pimpled asses.

    Take the quants; they are smart and mentally fucked too. No C in quants. the C is missing but an extra Q and A (think the wrong way to do Q and A). If you are a cunt becoming a Q and A added quant is nothing.

    Try to THINK.
     
    #3345     Jul 22, 2012
  6. RN,

    Curious your thoughts on profit taking for scalps (2-5 points) in the ES. Would you recommend trailing stops, scaling out or 100% garbage in garbage out?

    It's hard for me to accept not being perfect, I know very small brain, so I tend to just wait for exit signals now but sometimes I get slammed as IB booktrader taint the fastestest

    BD
     
    #3346     Jul 24, 2012
  7. Redneck

    Redneck


    BD

    Straight up I don’t trade the ES, so I can’t comment based on it personality/ idiosyncrasies / volatility


    But if you’ll permit me – let’s take a generic example and walk through it

    ==============================================

    Paraphrasing here

    I trade _ _ _ _

    When I enter; my profit target is 2 – 5 points

    Should my exit strategy be;

    Trailing stop
    Scaling out
    All in/ All out

    In the meantime; if I use PA to try and identify when I should get out, there are times when price turns so fast against me it ain’t even funny

    Man I should be able to read price better…..


    If I paraphrased incorrectly please say so…..

    =========================================
    My response

    Ahh crap…. the age old question – where and how do I get out.., to get maximum profit

    Truth is neither I nor any other trader knows for certain – and if I did; I would be a qinn-trillionaire (if that is even a word)

    Also a truth;

    Some swear by all in.., all out
    Some swear by all in.., scale out
    And some use trailing stops

    SUCCESSFULLY

    Btw – some also enter with minimal size…, then scale up as price moves their way…

    again; SUCCESSFULLY


    What each of us must do, is find and use what fits our personality


    ================================================================


    So let’s break it down and see if you can come up with an answer that will help you find what fits you

    And feel free to take any/ all these question in a rhetorical vein - or ask for clarification



    When you enter – are you trading with the trend, or counter

    Do you have a profit target identified

    Via analyzing historical chart data in your trading TF;

    When a move goes against you / against the setup you’re using – typically how far does it go

    Does the move against you invalidate the trade set up you’re using, or simply shake you up a bit

    Does price typically reverse back your way

    Can you identity the typical amount price moves in your favor…, before it moves back against you (2 – 5 points is a big dog gone delta imo)

    Are you possibly trading noise (being whipped sawed)


    What I’m suggesting is do some analysis and see if you can identify your sweet spot for exiting

    Maybe it is a 2 point target
    Maybe a 3…, or 4…, or 5 point target is better
    Maybe drawing a channel (horizontal or diagonal) and targeting the other side is appropriate
    Maybe it’s the close of the current bar on your trading TF
    Maybe something all together different once you analyze it


    Iow – become an expert with your set up, analyze what price typically does when your set up materializes, select an exit strategy that you are comfortable with;

    Then use a stop and trade it

    Another fact; No one gets all the marbles, all the time…

    ===================================
    As for reading price better, comes with screen time, but even with experience - price still does the unthinkable at times and catches us off guard

    Always use a stop

    I am not perfect in any way. shape of form - yet you still talk to me.. :)

    ================================
    fwiw;

    Back in the day when price tended to trend – I was a scale out trader

    These days I’m an all out trader… and yes price will…, and does moves more in my favor – without me - at times

    But it hit my target, so exit I did… fully knowing there is always another trade looming on the horizon

    Heck I may even reenter if price is showing no signs of relenting


    ================================

    The real key imho BD…, find what fits you…, stick to it… scale up


    Oh, and before some idiot steps in and says; Well you can’t scale up forever dumbass… You are correct


    Day trading generates capital

    Swing trading & Investing generates wealth

    RN
     
    #3347     Jul 25, 2012
  8. poland

    poland

    Thanks RN for sharing.
     
    #3348     Jul 25, 2012
  9. Redneck

    Redneck

    PO

    You are Welcome Sir



    BD

    Forgot to mention an obvious - duh

    Identifying if the day is an inside day.., or an outside day – could give a clue whether price is trending.. or chopping/ ranging

    And of course help us in deciding which exit strategy we may want to implement

    RN
     
    #3349     Jul 25, 2012
  10. poland

    poland

    hi RN,

    can you explain what you meant by 2-5points in terms of cents?
    in a previous post you gave an example of a 4 cents stop loss.

    Please correct if i didn't understand your meaning correctly.
    You said you define your stop loss by how much you are willing to lose....not in terms of your % of your account.

    Yes, I agree with this method. But sometimes I think stop loss should be define on the chart where there price is likely to fail if reaches that level.

    But in this case, it might be > than 4cents(just for illustration)???
     
    #3350     Jul 25, 2012