Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. Very true sir. I have come a long way in how I perceive things. Used be a typical always right and big headed. Slowly I started to see more but still couldn't get rid of forcing my opinion and the way I saw things on others. Now I don't care about that anymore and simply take pleasure in knowing/seeing things the way they are.

    The news/media has a whole new meaning to me now. I sometimes burst out laughing listening to some piece and people wonder what's so funny about it. But I don't bother explaining it anymore, either they see it or they don't. Sooner or later they might. Its a self development process which has to come from within. Forcing the opinion does the opposite, people go back into their shell even more.

    Now I am learning how to apply this neutral mindset to trading. I have already seen the light - I don't know jack shit :)


    As a side note RN, I am curious what kind of instruments you dabble in. I might have read it in a previous post but don't remember. Do you play stocks or futures (or both)? Also that you are in US do you bother with section 1256?

    I am trying to come up with a short list (2-4) of stocks/futures to keep a watch on daily basis and try to figure out their movements and learn something.

    Regards ML
     
    #3331     Jul 19, 2012
  2. river

    river

    A couple of questions Jack if you are still following this thread:

    Today's first reversal was on bar 1?

    Tomorrow morning we are short at the open and a pt3 just formed on bar81 in the OOE? (I'm finding the outside bars 77, 79, and 81 combined with the end of day volume effects rather confusing).

    -river
     
    #3332     Jul 19, 2012
  3. Redneck

    Redneck

    BD,

    Long time Sir

    Unfortunately TO is no longer

    ===============

    What would you say to this;

    H/Ls represent “boundaries”..., and the “moneyline” is simply the path…, price takes…, getting from one boundary to the other


    To add; boundaries are present from a sub bar trading TF...., all the way up through decades – need to identifying the ones which make sense



    Please don’t do this….

    We don’t know shit… so no since thinking shit..... Always remain neutral and listen to price

    I could retire on the money I’ve lost – from thinking price was going to……


    "A reporter once asked Edison, "How many times are you going to fail at creating the light bulb?" Mr. Edison replied, "Son, I haven't failed! I've simply discovered another way not to invent the light bulb!"


    Applies to one's trading journey as well

    RN
     
    #3333     Jul 19, 2012
  4. Redneck

    Redneck


    With regard to day trading

    I trade stocks

    Specifically I only trade one stock at a time

    Then depending on if it dries up/ I find myself getting lackadaisical – I’ll swap it for another from very small basket I maintain


    No Sir I do not file under sec 1256


    My suggestion is to pick one, and only one stock/ future/ what ever – and stick to it

    Learn it… learn its personality…

    Come to know it like you know the back of your hand

    Remember volatility = risk..... be conservative with the one you choose


    RN
     
    #3334     Jul 19, 2012
  5. Hi river:

    Bar one was an Outside bar, so it represents two points.

    The first boint set up the N+1 condition for an End Effect.

    As you saw the bottom of the bar came first while the case was a stitch.

    this allowed you to carve the turn and thne the long was underway.

    BUT you need to be more certain usually so it is wise to use pt2 as the N+1 signal. Technically you see that when pt2 is created. The "doji" aspect came before this and before the doji was the appearance of the "spike" off the bottom.

    There were many other leading indicators, as well.

    the principle of staying on the correct side of the market is THE MOST IMPORTANT.

    I would say that most potential traders really do not have a handle on the way ticks work inside of the market's sentiment. How the mental progression works to get to the comsumate stability for making money trading comes mostly from the operation of two things: Getting the transfer waves that conduct information from the sub conscious to the conscious and more important, how the subconscious is allowed to control "knowing that you know".

    Most people cannot just settle in on a trading fractal. They always sniff around on other fractals and then their minds are forming spectrums for each fractal and NOT interconnecting or finding the interelationships.

    Mostly everything we achieve does not come from the conscious mind.

    Today, we did end up in a short trend for carryover on the open tomorrow.

    For me, bar 76 was a trend end. I set bar 77 as the beginning of the short trend. both of these determinations have to do with the type of end effect of a trend. I only have one class of end effects where the EE is also pt 1 (P1).

    As you say, bar 81 was pt3 (the second trough of volume).

    I see some chatter in this thread about how much money is being made by various methods of trading.

    By looking at he average daily "take", it is possible to estimate the number of days for doubling capital. But there is another dimension as well. financial planners have traditionally earned their keep by giving clients advice on building wealth. Today, most financial planner advice, if taken, would put the average client at other than the peak of his capital building.

    To become immune from this CW arrangement, it is very important to always be growing capital all of the time. There are no rules around that obligate anyone to not be making money all of the time.

    If a person finds a standard for making money, it usually comes from appraising the market's off appropriately.

    I posted my trades for the first three days of this week. I also posted other lists for other days. As was seen I did not go any further than a beginner or advanced beginner level of knowledge and skills. A lot was left on the table, so to speak.

    the net result can be shown on various runs using Excel. It is easy to see that making 1/3 of the margin daily, lets any person double his capital in three days. BUT as usual the person has to use his capital to trade during RTH.

    What is more conventional in ET, is to read about people coming off the sidelines occassionally and doing an entry which is fololowed by retruning to the sidelines. This approach makes a marginal amount of money.

    the sweet spot is "all in" and "always in". This is quite frightening to most people. It is not done using the financial planner's system of thinking.
     
    #3335     Jul 19, 2012
  6. The_Oracle is the same person as The_expert.
     
    #3336     Jul 19, 2012
  7. Redneck

    Redneck


    There are times it is best to keep your mouth shut

    I’ll have more to say on this later



    In the meantime….


    I am a fool...., but will not make the same mistake twice

    RN
     
    #3337     Jul 20, 2012
  8. xburbx

    xburbx

    Mek. Any chance you want to edit your last post?
     
    #3338     Jul 20, 2012
  9. RN sir, I realize it was foolish. Lesson learnt.

    XX, I cannot edit it (past 30 min) so I have made a request to the mods to edit/delete it.
     
    #3339     Jul 20, 2012
  10. river

    river

    Posted in another thread earlier today:

    Perhaps it’s just the small sample size or just the relatively low volume summer days but I notice recently when the carryover from the previous day is past the pt3 in the OOE I find the opening several bars difficult to decipher and I struggle to find the right side of the market and when the carryover is just past pt1 in the OOE the opening several bars trend nicely and staying on the right side of the market is rather easy.

    Today, for me, was a constant struggle through the first 20 bars or so until the short you mention above.

    Is there a lesson in this for beginners, Jack? Can we infer how “trendy” or “choppy” (to use CW words) the next day’s opening bars will be based on where we start in the OOE? Can we infer anything else?

    -river
     
    #3340     Jul 20, 2012