Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. DrEvil

    DrEvil

    This kind of opportunity is very rare, it's like buying corn at 30 year lows around $1.50, there is around a 99.999% chance that it will not go to zero.
     
    #291     Mar 22, 2009
  2. Bear Paws

    Bear Paws

    Could the obvious be to do the opposite of everyone else? I am a new trader just barely hanging on and would love to find an edge.
    This thread is quite fascinating.
     
    #292     Mar 22, 2009
  3. Chart two closely resembles the ES on 3/13/2009. I'd guess the P&F chart is of an index or an equity.

    [​IMG]
     
    #293     Mar 22, 2009
  4. Kudos AllOrNothing! Can't see how you can get closer than that!

    Also, thought that I'd add something that is "obvious", but has not really been mentioned much during this thread. Charts like this and various other indicators are, for the most part, simply tools for displaying MARKET SENTIMENT. My initial reflex to the question, “What is this chart of?” might be a ‘channel up’ or ‘cup with handle’. But why do so many of us believe that we gain an edge when correctly interpreting these visual displays?

    To answer this, I think we should all agree that the market is basically schizophrenic! How could it be falling one moment so dramatically, then rising the next, if it wasn’t suffering from some form of a bipolar disorder??? And of course the market is schizophrenic because traders are schizophrenic! So to the extent that a trader can proficiently utilize these tools to diagnose this enigmatic head case called the market, they will enjoy success! Perhaps this sounds a little crazy, but maybe with all of our charts, indicators, news feeds etc., all we are actually doing is asking the perennial therapeutic question, “So Mr. Market, how are you feeling today???”
    :D
     
    #294     Mar 22, 2009
  5. Redneck

    Redneck


    Sir.

    What do you think a chart really is

    You also say the market is schizophrenic (ever hear common sense is not so common)

    90% lose, 10% win - consistently


    I wonder if these are related in any way - Yes Sir - I just wonder


    Redneck
     
    #295     Mar 22, 2009
  6. It is "obvious", that a chart displays MARKET SENTIMENT, which as I said has not really been mentioned much during this thread ... perhaps because it is sooooo "obvious". What is not so obvious is the answer to the question, "So, Mr. Market how are you feeling today?" Perhaps the 90% that loose in the market incorrectly perceive the answer ... or incorrectly perceive that they can answer the question ... or lack a strategy that can make them a winner regardless.
     
    #296     Mar 22, 2009
  7. TraderD

    TraderD

    nyse,

    Where the charts posted vertically on purpose?

    Is 90/10 ratio between BLASH and BHASH dictated by the market? How, if ever, situations are handled where ratio is different?

    Does BLASH always lead to BHASH?

    Do you use PNF charts to estimate risk/reward or manage risk?

    Thank you.
     
    #297     Mar 23, 2009
  8. rcn10ec

    rcn10ec

    nysestocks,

    Noticed you have not posted anywhere in a while... sure hope all is well. :)
     
    #298     Mar 25, 2009
  9. JScott

    JScott

    Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

    Is this a trick question?

    How clearly can this be stated . . . It's all obvious !

    Why are there overweight people who don't want to be overweight?

    All that is need to be known is known. Only after many trial and errors (some people call it "experience") will you know what you need to know and know what you don't need to know to accomplish certain things - lose weight, trade successfully, whatever . . .

    If this is not obvious to you, then you only have one thing to do . . . keep forging ahead until it is. It's all obvious ! Trust me.

    Keep trading.
     
    #299     Mar 29, 2009
  10. nysestocks

    nysestocks Guest

    Yes, rcn, all is well - thank you.

    I am but an average person like most, but I really do not like it when others think that they are "experts", when the facts show the exact opposite!

    This pullback from the 810 level was expected, although many were expecting a further follow thru!

    Look at the volume since 10 Mar!!!
     
    #300     Mar 31, 2009