Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. no need to do that ML..for there is nothing wrong with being wrong..for that is how we learn anything of value..is it not

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    #2981     Jul 2, 2012
  2. Chart :D
     
    #2982     Jul 2, 2012
  3. ok ML..firstly..when TO looked at the ES chart this morning..he said to himself..odds are the price will be run up and then drop back..so that will give a good chance to BUY a put when it runs up..not SELL a put:D ..at a reasonable price..to make a few points after the open

    so..TO decided to just do that..with a near option as the trade was only planned for a few hours..not for a few days..and the price that TO decided he would pay..was 7.00 even..after looking at what was happening on the ES option matrix..with 7.00 having a very good chance of being filled..which it was with lmt order

    this is the trade with the times..in GMT..u have to adjust for US times

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    notice what time the trade was closed..on mobile phone app again..btw:D

    damn..TO can't find the stupid chart..will have to search harder

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    #2983     Jul 2, 2012
  4. while TO is searching for the chart:D ..how about picking another option trade for tmrw..and let's see what happens..but remember..the trade is a loser until it proves otherwise..so we must place it knowing that it is a loser:)

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    #2984     Jul 2, 2012
  5. All right I am a certified idiot now. Pulled the wrong chart :mad:

    Here's the right chart and surprisingly only one contract traded at both points and must be yours :D

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    Also forgot you are UK time so you trade after market too!
     
    #2985     Jul 2, 2012
  6. TFF never lies..as lying gets u nowhere:)

    no option trade for tonite..as not best time to pick..so..here is the chart..and as mentioned..TFF never lies:D

    i think my chart is bigger than urs :D

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    #2986     Jul 2, 2012
  7. I am sorry if I came off like an idiot. I was just trying to use my B&E to co-relate the information with my system, ended up pulling the wrong chart - which still co-related somewhat and came to a wrong conclusion :( No way I intended to imply you were lying.

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    Famous quote - Co-relation does not imply causation!

    I hate ToS charts. They have tons of shit indicators imaginable and then some to put on a chart but god forbid you want to do something simple like a comparison chart with different scale and bar type. :mad:

    Also found a smiley you might like!

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    #2987     Jul 2, 2012
  8. Now that SPX is sitting at a major s/r level - anything is possible. In your quote above what stands out is the volume of 1.14k @ 1345 OTM put.

    I also saw a high OI of 5k @ 1380 call.

    So it could be a WRB day tomorrow and based on overnight action + how it opens, a trade can be placed.

    It can also be another NRB day with no direction defined and a signal to stay put (no pun intended :D)
     
    #2988     Jul 2, 2012
  9. bogan22

    bogan22

    Sorry don't have data for those instruments. Is that a liquid market at the times you were trading it? Interesting following along MK and TO, could you toss in some losers as well?

    Its also very interesting to note the two instruments overlayed.

    Cheers
    Bogan22
     
    #2989     Jul 3, 2012
  10. about time someone asked..as most people only want to show their winning trades..and not their losers..i wonder why:)

    so B22..TO did enter another lmt buy for the jul06 1355 put..this time at 4.50..but it was bad decision..as TO had appointment today and got delayed..so was unable to modify/cancel order..and now stuck with a put..when it should have been a call..at least it is a long put..and not a short call:D

    and to make it worse..we have the bloody 4th jul..so more time decay:mad:

    good thing is we still have a chance to recover some money..or even make a profit..so we might leave run to expiry on fri and see what happens..either way the loss is taken as a given anyway..as every trade has to be this way..but..it was a bad trade as TO knew he would be tied up..so no one to blame only TO

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    when we move on to stocks u swill see more losers..as losers are but a part of trading..and TO has no problem with losing..at all:D

    i will post the updated chart so that u can see what a bad trade is like :)

    TO
     
    #2990     Jul 3, 2012