Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. xburbx

    xburbx

    There is a lot more to this statement than what is posted.

    -How do you know what suits you/me best?

    -At first looking at the two techniques I thought it has to do with coming up with a plan like 1 or 2 and then just doing that same thing without fail. People say they break their plans and thats why they arent profitable. I would be willing to place some kind of bet in live trading that 1 or 2 wouldnt make me profitable if i did it for say a month without fail. I also dont think that is what TO was trying to say. I am not challenging the methods, but trying to grasp the message.

     
    #2661     Nov 21, 2011
  2. see the diff here!

    this one is a total waste of time

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMuTAo8Vqyo
     
    #2662     Nov 21, 2011
  3. the point is..have u ever looked closely at a 10 min bar when the price moves fast..measured the move in cent..knowing where u will enter and exit?

    if not..why not?

    in fact..have u ever looked at anything besides what is printed in books and posted on website?

    who is to say that anyone else know better than u..the big pension find managers..now that is a real joke:eek:

    if u have less time maybe..lets see

    how about using 30 min bars..and we do not enter until the 3rd bar is complete..and based on certain criteria..we place an order..and exit at close of day..stop below the low of day..and stop moved based on price movement..to lock in profit

    we win or lose..day in and day out..every trading day of the year
     
    #2663     Nov 21, 2011
  4. bogan22

    bogan22

    >as for the mental toll..well..that is up to u..and no one else..for the only person who can help u there is urself..but..as with all things in life..success does not come easy..and u must feel the pain before the gain..how much pain u feel will be determined by how well u stick to ur plan..simple as that!<

    Understood TO, and thanks for your prompt reply. I understand that the only way I can truly know about this is through direct experience. I've had similar experiences whilst investing. However, I was fishing for some of your experiences in dealing with these issue throughout your journey. There may be some handy lessons/tips/tricks I can incorporate before I initiate myself.


    Regards
    The Bogan
     
    #2664     Nov 21, 2011
  5. xburbx

    xburbx

    An example of the 10min question and my answer was YHOO today and yesterday. I actually used the first of the days 15min bar for this. First 15min today a short would have worked great and stalled to a good place. The day before, entering on the first 15min bar first min would have been a whipsaw and loss. A sample size of 2 is not exactly a good size but just and example
     
    #2665     Nov 21, 2011
  6. yes..of course u can look at what others have done..but don't be surprised if u can not use it right away..for..it takes a good while to learn to think like others do..and..most never do

    if u stick to some basic stuff..it can be a lot easier..as complicating things only makes it harder

    first step is get barry rudd's book if u don't already have it..stock patterns for daytrading and swingtraing..it is old..but has some very good practical stuff..that will help to make some sense of price movement

    after that.. i will send u something that might help u see a bit more..but as mentioned..do not be surprised if u do not see it right away..it takes time to understand..and thus..see it for what it really is

    TO
     
    #2666     Nov 21, 2011
  7. the one bar that i never use..is the 15 min..it is banned from my screens:D
     
    #2667     Nov 21, 2011
  8. xburbx

    xburbx

    ha. ok. so i looked at the last few days of YHOO to say enter on the first 10min bar of the day at a break of the first 1min bar as getting in the 1st min of the day can be very tough at a good price. i would enter on the break of the high or low of that 1min bar and hold for 10min until the 10min bar closes. if it comes back within the 10min and goes in the other direction of that original 1min bar and breaks the other high/low i would reverse. a quick glance at the last few days showed some small winners but mostly small losers and break even ish trades. i am not trying to fight you on the method but trying to see further into how a profitable trader can make this kind of technique work and a non profitable trader doesnt. does the technique have to have a probability associated with it or is something beyond that? taking that trade with out fail and with out question over what i could see (on a short glance) would not prove to be overall profitable.
     
    #2668     Nov 21, 2011
  9. bogan22

    bogan22

    Thanks TO, I picked up on NY and TE's references to the rudd book and the wiggly bits, but I did not spend to much time on the rest of the content. I'll review that over the coming week.

    Regards
    The Bogan
     
    #2669     Nov 21, 2011
  10. When you say 'see it (price movement) for what it really is' my interpretation is a trend those that 'understand' can see or make an educated directional guess. The big boys and MM's know how to shake the little guy out day after day. And only when you perfect entry/R:R can you compete and it FINALLY becomes easier.

    So, what would help see the higher directional probability in the market especially at the open? Today it appeared the open was the shakedown in the SPY and 9:30am was a buying opportunity. Turns out the 1st couple highs would've been great shorts. Should the ES opening down 3 points been enough to anticipate yesterday's high holding early and look for a couple legs down?
     
    #2670     Nov 22, 2011