That is the whole point! Who ever gets the charts right knows something about the markets. It really is not that hard if you stop and think! If I say the markets now, then I will only do those that want to think an injustice. For those who do not want to work it out - fine, but I am not interested in holding people's hands in case they fall - much better they slip a few times and get back up, then they wont fall as fast the next time!
How about we dismiss all this talk about "expectancy", and how it will allow you to make more money trading! As someone has already explained it better than me, I will borrow some text to explain. If you want the book I am sure you can find it after a few simple searches - that is how I got it "We can calculate the odds of a series of coin flips or rolls of dice, but for many real trading scenarios a strictly mathematical approach is not possible and our intuition is inadequate. It would be nice to describe trade results in some compact and easy mathematical formula. One tool that has been used is expectancy, which is the most probable return for an event. What we will discover is that expectancy is easily misused when it is extended to a series of events or trades. When it is extended to a series of trades it must be compounded and also account for the risk management strategy that is used. It fact there are two types of expectancy that are presented in a later chapter. Even introducing a second type does not solve the problem of comparing various methods of trading. The fact is, there are a wide range of possible outcomes and a single number like expectancy cannot describe the whole population of possible results."
Trader D is making me feel bad - I must be getting soft in my old age Hints in no specific order. 100th of one plus seven Over thirty at thirty six
Johno, I'm not entirely sure about the first part of your comment, or even what you were implying with the above quote. However, the part about prospective (and existing) traders not comprehending the requirements and implications inherent in buying low and selling high or buying high and selling higher really stood out to me. What is apparent and yet not so obvious to many, is that repeating "sell high and buy lower" or "buy high and sell higher" is totally different than actually being able to psychologically do this in practice when it's your livelihood that is relatively at risk in every single trade. I do it everyday, so I'm not speaking as a spectator. The fact that risk is implicit in every trade is something that I think most people on this website have difficulty accepting. Largely because they began trading without sufficient prep or guidance and became fearful of losing which, makes it difficult for them now to pull the trigger and overcome memories of how it felt to be wrong (lose) over and over in the past. That is assuming of course your style or strategy is profitable -- or that you're capable of trading it anyway. What isn't initially obvious to new traders is that what is at risk in each trade is more than $$$$. To make the $$$$, you have to be more careful about how you take risks with the intangible things that you risk in every trade. I don't know why the obvious is not so obvious. I don't even know what the aim of that question is. Maybe 'obvious' is only relative to your perspective. Maybe using the word obvious is far too open-ended to actually attract an accurate response. Either way, this is a good thread. I rarely post and this is definitely my longest post ever.
Is the secret that price does not really represent what one would initially assume it represents? ...or at least not all the time?
Guys, I am sick to the teeth of so called "experts" trying to explain to traders how they will make money. The reality is that it is very hard to take money from other traders! If you are smart enough to understand what it is I am talking about, then you will stand a far better chance than most! This is not rubbish talk - it is just plain and simple facts! Most so called "experts" are nothing short of idots, as they are living an illussion! Believe me when I say they do not know how the markets really operate.
"7:3" ...no problem. -A little better actually. -For years. "taking money from other traders" ...no sweat. -Do it every day. "Stupidly give it back" ...bingo! Guess I answered my own question...
NYSEstocks: The chart(s) are not market based, but are noise randomly, (like most market specific moves short term) like a Cardiologist/Radiologist medical chart. It is thrown in as a zinger to prove a point about the tendency of humans to "see" "patterns" in things like stock charts when non-market noise depictions seem to show the same attributes.
Given your comments hinting at aspects of the EMT, while noting the difficulty of taking money from other traders, it is amazing people are not able to get the crux of your arguments. It is also fair and correct to keep it a secret, for reasons already discussed and a host of others less impacting on those in the know. Further, I mostly but do not entirely agree trading is gambling, it is calculated speculation, which is not the same as gambling in the sense most understand it. If you have the edge, as a casino does, they cannot account for the linear *distribution* of wins or losses, but their edge on each play due to rules implementation assures them of winning over time. I agree with most of your assertions, though, you do not come across too well but that is not the point here...