Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. achilles28

    achilles28

    Hard not to be... I'm the same way. Off and online. People are generally aholes. On the plus side, it makes me appreciate my family and close friends. Great call on the short @25.
     
    #2481     Oct 31, 2011
  2. achilles28

    achilles28

    I know he'll appreciate it :D
     
    #2482     Oct 31, 2011
  3. baron193

    baron193

    :D
    got to go, good chatting with ya, good luck.
     
    #2483     Oct 31, 2011
  4. achilles28

    achilles28

    you too. Take care
     
    #2484     Oct 31, 2011
  5. Thanks RN,

    Sometimes i'm so confused i don't know which questions to ask. But mostly now it's just me reviewing my set ups and asking myself the questions.

    Again, i appreciate all the sharing and info you provide.

    good trading to you

    jas

     
    #2485     Oct 31, 2011
  6. ye sure did..and don't do it again:eek:
     
    #2486     Oct 31, 2011
  7. Mysteron

    Mysteron

    Actually it was TO who said "the ultimate obvious is not attainable". On the one hand the statement seemed to be saying that there is an ultimate secret that will never be revealed. On the other hand I thought the statement was possibly just word play meaning: the ultimate obvious is not in TA but is in being able, i.e. in oneself.

    I did previously state: "faith without evidence is delusional BS." Thats a general statement about any form of faith without evidence, such as religious beliefs, astrology, homeopathy, luck etc. When I said it, it was in response to the reference by TO to "a small big secret rare" after I had asked a question about trend lines. The reason I said it was because any mention of secrets that are not going to be shared, explained and for which there is no apparent way to gain an understanding, requires an act of faith to accept they are true.

    The Expert, who you may have heard of, used to post on Trade2Win (and ET too). On that site there was a discussion of opening gaps and H-L, C-O ranges. He claimed there was a secret that would not be revealed and that it would 'blow your mind away' when it was seen. When I attempted to discuss this much later on a private site I never got any meaningful response, so over a long period of time I tried to discover the secret by looking at charts similar to one shown, and considered all the possible relationships and correlations of opening gap with H,L,C,O of the previous and current day. Eventually I discovered it, or so I thought and was very pleased with myself. Not long after that I found an error in my program and realised that I had in fact not found any secret at all. After that experience I concluded that The Expert had also, most likely, made a mistake and was wrong. Of course I may be wrong, but without any other evidence I have to rely on my own investigations which failed to find any useful property of gaps.

    So now if anyone suggests that there is a secret then I'm only inclined to believe it if there is some means of acquiring evidence too. The concept of chocolate teapot comes to mind!

    [​IMG]
     
    #2487     Oct 31, 2011
  8. well PO..it all depends on what u are trading..and what u call a large number of trades!

    are u talking about scalping?

    we have seen the fx experts in action recently:)..i am not sure how many trades they done as i stopped reading after the first few posts:eek:

    TE sent me an excel file for the little old stocky fellows:D and i plugged in mr big fx to see what came up..needs a little bit of tweaking..but not much

    i am not going to use the file..but i might look at it some time later..to see what this T&S is all about..unable to share the file right now..but maybe TE will change his mind..if the bold boys start behaving themselves:eek:

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    #2488     Oct 31, 2011
  9. xburbx

    xburbx

    those screens actually look familiar as about 3 years ago i was looking at trading with a similar basis but couldnt make anything out of it. go figure. i had a program for esignal that showed the bid/ask spread tick by tick. it was really high speed movement but it was interesting to see that when size came in when the bid/ask spread increased it caused the market to turn. the chart ended up looking identical to those.

    it makes sense as there are no buyers/sellers taking the new price so price had to go up or down
     
    #2489     Oct 31, 2011
  10. well MN..u should never believe anything u read on public forums..has that not been mentioned enough times already

    of course there are secrets..every person has them..so what..why should that bother anyone else!

    if u try to copy someone else then u might just end up wasting a ot of time..or/and losing a lot of money

    TFF has always said that the most important thing..above all else..is the % risk per trade..for..for OBVIOUS reasons

    gaps are but one play..and like all other plays..nothing is ever certain or guaranteed when trading..so..it looks like u have been in search of the wrong thing..altogether

    that file TE sent me was not very good for fx..but i have made a small adjustment..and now it is better..it was a very simple adjustment..see if u can make out what the adjustment was when i post it..it might help u..or it might not..it depends on you
     
    #2490     Oct 31, 2011