Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. Redneck

    Redneck



    B193

    I won’t coddle, sugar coat, enable, or make excuses for - any one – in any way

    But if you think for one moment I was talking down to you

    Then I sincerely apologize to you Sir



    Market is quite capable of handing me my ass in a split second – been there done that numerous times, and not even a Tee shirt (probably could have bought the damn factory by now)

    I am no better than anyone


    RN
     
    #2111     Oct 21, 2011
  2. baron193

    baron193

    We don't know each other personaly, but it appears the way someone expreses him/her self on a forum speaks volumes about their personality, at least i think so, as like trading we never really know for sure, do we?
    Nonetheless, you sir, i admire.
    Sincerely, Ant.
     
    #2112     Oct 21, 2011
  3. Shanb

    Shanb

    IMO...the lowest risk entry is selling the intraday spike into resistance. Whenever you get a wide-spread move into a level like that it means that move is getting extended. The reaction off of the resistance level tells you that the sellers have came in.

    It like action/reaction...don't sell a grinding move higher into a resistance area. Its had enough time to build energy to move through. The vertical move hasn't.
     
    #2113     Oct 21, 2011
  4. baron193

    baron193

    I don't remember! without the benefit of intraday trading you have to exit as soon as you get a hint of wrong direction, that is unless you are near a good S/R, where you might have a chance of salvaging the trade somewhat.
    Overnight can be brutal huh?
    I don't trade Daily and definetely not stocks.
     
    #2114     Oct 22, 2011
  5. Redneck

    Redneck


    Dissect what you see

    You have no idea if there is resistance up there or not


    Side note

    Whenever we review a chart – we must always be careful not to induce hindsight bias

    We’ll never have that luxury – but we can use it to learn… then as the day unfolds in front of us – exploit it


    Also – never assume high is too high… or low is too low

    Make price prove it to you, otherwise you will be unhappily surprised - time..., and time again

    RN
     
    #2115     Oct 22, 2011
  6. Redneck

    Redneck

    You are much too kind - Thank You

    Now let's figure out the obvious :)

    RN
     
    #2116     Oct 22, 2011
  7. baron193

    baron193

    One i just played now and made a mess of, i won't explain what the marks on the chart mean, you all are experienced enough to know where the entries should have been and why..
    [​IMG]
     
    #2117     Oct 22, 2011
  8. Redneck

    Redneck

    Define a "hint"

    btw in the current environment - using a hint will get your ass whipsawed. racking up commission, and losing to boot

    So what do we do???
    =======================================

    On another note....

    How would you define "good" S/R

    What would it look like - either after the fact... and/or as its being formed

    Both are exploitable after all

    RN
     
    #2118     Oct 22, 2011
  9. baron193

    baron193

    OK, give me a bit of time and i'll show you on the chart..
     
    #2119     Oct 22, 2011
  10. xburbx

    xburbx

    RN - Here is what I have from 1000 yards to the 5min

    The weekly and daily just broke the down channel line to the upside. Monthly and weekly bounced off support (what i see as support). This is in picture A. It cut through the demand and bounced off that spike from 10/1/06. I saw 35.41 as first monthly support and 32.34 as second but it didnt bounce until 27.46 in the current month.

    Then on the daily there is a clear down channel where price was riding the top of the channel. It breaks over the upside of the channel on 10/10/11.

    ^^In my mind I am seeing a bounce off monthly and weekly support and a break in the daily channel so I am thinking longs are in play^^

    Then on the one hour we have support spikes at 33.24 that seem to be dealing with the demand from 10/7. We have resistance at the earlier monthly 35.41

    Then there is a 1hour upchannel break on the hourly 1 oclock bar. On the 5min I could enter on the first 5min consolidation break for a short after the 1hour breakdown bar completed. I can target the resistance because my ADR is roughly 2.00 and I have 1 dollar to go with a stop placed above the upchannel line. This is a 30 cent stop.

    ((This does not consider any outside factors vix, futures, trin, tick etc)).

    ---Here is the mind F***. With monthly and weekly and daily suggesting up, not knowing if those s/r areas are the right ones in general because there are a million ways people pick them, hourly overall price movement is sideways, daily just had its downchannel broken so the only thing telling me to short his is the hourly 2 day break in the upchannel line and the bounce off of resistance. The majority of what I see tells me long.--
     
    #2120     Oct 22, 2011