Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. xburbx

    xburbx

    If you are talking about the reverse engineering the perfect trade conversation, I would look at the price, conditions and characteristics of VIX for one of those trades.

     
    #2001     Oct 18, 2011
  2. achilles28

    achilles28

    Okay. So how would that look? You mentioned rangy days are better for you? And trendy, not so much? What does the VIX look like on rangy days? How would you apply it?
     
    #2002     Oct 18, 2011
  3. rossky

    rossky

    When we see wide moves in both directions, it probably means it has been a period of higher than average levels of uncertainty. And, when the market is trending the volatility is lower because the participants feel more confident about the direction.

    I hear that volatility tends to cluster. I'm not sure if I interpret it correctly. It looks like if we are witnessing something happening then it probably last for a while, but we can never be sure for how long it's going to last.

    Patiently wait for the right conditions to trade?
     
    #2003     Oct 18, 2011
  4. xburbx

    xburbx

    I'm the guy that looks for trend days and I think it was rocky that wants range days. Regardless to answer your question, my knowledge of vix is that over a certain number on it tends to be considered high volatility. I am not sure about it's actual intraday price structure. I don't know if just simply being over x number would create the right conditions or if it needs to be in an uptrend. That I will have to investigate.
     
    #2004     Oct 18, 2011
  5. achilles28

    achilles28

    Yes, and tying volatility to underlying fundamental drivers is correct. I would caution and say that trending environments can - and often - do occur in a high VIX environment. 2008. This past August. Volatility clusters because it's largely news-driven. Crisis don't manifest or resolve themselves overnight. When the market finally sits up and takes notice, politicians and CB'ers must act. Given the plodding nature of humans and bureaucracy, solutions take time. This is why volatility tends to "cluster", or continue.

    As for the VIX... Is there a correlation between it and your trading performance? For example, during low-VIX periods, is your trading a net loss? And when the VIX is high, it's a net gain?
     
    #2005     Oct 18, 2011
  6. achilles28

    achilles28

    Good idea... Come back and let us know....There should be a correlation between your PnL and the VIX range (high or low). Correlate the days where the VIX is high, medium or low with your performance during those same periods and let us know the result.
     
    #2006     Oct 18, 2011
  7. we are really gathering momentum now..and i see we have some new flatmates:D

    time to step back and look at the blank canvas..so as to speak

    why does one person look at a painting and see the VALUE in it..when others will look and just see more of the same old thing..some stupid artist throwing more paint onto a canvas to impress others with his views on certain aspects of life..what the hell can anyone see in paintings..anyway:confused:

    when u look..into the book
    what u see..is what it be
    if u stare..what is not there
    soon u know..u miss the show

    price will move..into the groove
    when it's in..time to grin:D
    but know this fact..it is no act
    too many gloat..and miss the boat:D

    so u say..this and that day
    all i need do..is trade like YOU
    but when i try..to reach the sky
    i always find..i'm trading blind

    if u are blind..then u must find
    the reason why..u have no eye
    for now u know..it's all a show
    to win u must..learn to adjust

    NY did speak..of one so bleek
    a hump so big..it was no twig:D
    ding dinga dong ..a merry song
    it's now the time..to SEE the chime

    so let us think..what in the ink:confused:
    to look and see..be bizzy bee:D
    and when u look..into the book
    know for sure..there's but this cure:)

    for any mind..with simple hind
    can look and see..what need to be
    the need is there..and never care
    to lose so small..will make it tall:)


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    #2007     Oct 18, 2011
  8. directly...NO

    indirectly..YES

    Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

    The Obvious Is Not So Obvious..because...It Is So Obvious:D

    when u work this out u will never look to any other trader for guidance..for..u will have arrived and will KNOW what it is all about

    u will only KNOW when you have learned the difference between saying and doing..for..the bizzy bee is not called bizzy for nothing:D

    TO
     
    #2008     Oct 18, 2011
  9. rossky

    rossky

    Achilles, honestly, I have never used VIX as a tool for the analysis of my performance, but when I see wide moves in both directions I also see more signals and because the ranges are wider I have more successful trades. CounterTrend and With Trend trades work more often.

    Do you imply that I must specialize more? You said that it's going to be the process of elimination. I must admit that the elimination process is the reason there's no consistency in my performance. This particular thread has always been the hope for me that my search will be over and I will be able to do same thing day after day after day.
     
    #2009     Oct 18, 2011
  10. so let us see..what diff there be
    for one so blue..is not best clue
    as u can see..there many be
    in and out..with no real clout

    we do not care..what others dare
    all we need know..where is best show
    to find out same..and have no shame
    we use PC..to see what be:D

    the sectors be..like grape on tree
    but thanks to Bill..we now have skill:D
    to find so fast..never in the past
    like mighty Thor..roar the ADR:D



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    #2010     Oct 18, 2011