Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

The Oracle · Oct 16, 2011

Quote from rossky:

Snake,

Thank you for your poison. Everybody could use it to cure their wounds.

...
The Oracle,

Snake is what we needed here, IMO.

You are the only guru I listen to now in the entire universe. I don't know how many, but I'm definitely on the hook here. If you stopped that would be one thing, but you keep on going. Doesn't it bother you that you are responsible for those who listen to you?

Maybe one day a supertrader emerges from this kind of teaching, but there maybe one that will throw himself from the bridge.

Coming to this thread is like going to church and listen the speeches that are to help you understand God!

Sometimes I like to think about the universe. Thoughts disappear and you just fly into the infinity. Everybody has done that. It feels good. It improves my mood and clears my mind a bit but what it's good for otherwise?

You post a chart, for example. Where's the title for it, what is the task. Next time you post, how do I know it's a follow up. There's no closure either.

I put Jack Hershey on ignore because I realized that despite the fact that he speaks about a lot of interesting things, ultimately what he speaks about doesn't make sense.

Yes, we started to make some progress and as a leader you got sloppy. You just said yourself that we are in a serious business. Well, then why fool around with serious stuff!

If you don't like it you may leave you might say. Well, maybe I will. But it would be very sad to learn one day that I left because you failed.

Yours sincerely,

rossky
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RY..the worst thing in the world for anyone to do is to listen to others..have u not seen that posted many times in this thread?

as I have discovered myself..many years ago..it is far better to think for yourself that let others think for you

i am no leader of anyone..nor do i ever intend to be

all we do is help those who are willing and able to help themselves..by pointing in the right direction..if someone decides to ignore..then that is their decision..and if someone does not understand..then they should ask questions..but the questions must be related to the main topic..otherwise it is just a waste of time for both posters

in summary..what u do..or anyone else does..will be a direct result of how you think..and thus act

if u are not progressing..then it is obvious that u are not thinking correctly in relation to trading..and what is required in order to be profitable

i do not agree with you about snakey..for it is obvious that he is only a time waster and has no clue about trading..nor has he any intentions of ever learning..and as such..he will be treated accordingly..for..everyone gets exactly what they deserve in life..that is just the way it is..and the sooner one accepts that fact of life..the better it will be

TO

The Oracle · Oct 16, 2011

Quote from XEC10:

As I said before but this time emphasising two key words: "Confirmation is that thing in your process derived from price charts that convinces you that a potential trade is in a low risk area and that timing is correct to start a trade. "

Confirmation does not mean certainty, it means having sufficient information to make a decision despite knowning that the decision could possibly be incorrect.

Over the past few years my job has involved radar seekers, detecting targets in a noisy environment, uncertainty and deception is the norm. When dealing with target detection the first step is to specify an acceptable false alarm rate, i.e. when noise alone could falsely trigger a detection. That provides a detection threshold which defines the probability of detection when a target is present. A confirmation process then follows where the radar performs repeated looks, and if say 3 out of 5 looks result in successful detections then the target is considered to be confirmed and tracking starts. Thats only a sketch of course but the point is that at no time is there any certainty. In fact the signal being tracked could be a false echo intentionally generated, and if the signal suddenly ceases then a search and detection process starts again. The algorithms within the radar software are designed to act and react to the uncertain environment in which it operates. Same is true for traders - obviously.

In this situation the underlying probability distributions are known unlike in trading (as far as I'm aware), but there are some similarities. Risk is predefined, false alarm rate = stop loss. There is a confirmation process to decide to track a target = enter a trade.

Surely we should have a rational method for deciding (confirming) when to enter a trade, for otherwise the alternative is to trade haphazardly by gut feeling.

What do you mean by simplified thinking other than thinking logically and behaving rationally?
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very good post about the radar X10..but..we are forgetting one thing..and that is..trading is gambling

let us look at your words

Confirmation does not mean certainty, it means having sufficient information to make a decision despite knowning that the decision could possibly be incorrect.

confirming = establish the truth or correctness of something

decision = a conclusion or resolution reached after consideration

knowing = done in full awareness or consciousness

now..if we really believe that trading is gambling..and that the probability of losing is far greater that that of winning..for the majority..then..surely we do not need any confirmation in relation to any one single trade

but..we must of course make a conscious decision on how we are going to gamble our money..and what odds are we going to try and play

and..if we know the correct odds (double zero)..then..and only then can we say that we now have a valid approach to gambling that will make us money over time

is it not obvious that most are looking at trading from the wrong perspective..as we all know how many lose when they try out trading..for..it is not the next trade that will make you money..it is your combined trades..and..this leads us on to the most important thing that we need to understand..and..if you want to say..we need to come up with!

it is mentioned above..WHAT IS IT?

SnakeEYE · Oct 16, 2011

did anyone get something?

"very good point about radar.....blalalalalalalalalalallaalalalalalallalalalalalalallalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalallalalalalalalalalalallalalalalala..........

WHAT IT IS?"

jerk.....dumb,stupid,damaged,idiotic clown jerk!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

you are the real deal zeracle!

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

The Oracle · Oct 16, 2011

Quote from baron193:

I think there are simple methods to tell you when to enter and when to exit a trade, they have been around for a long time but we seem to prefer complicating things by adding extra shoite on our charts we don't need,however markets have become more complex in the way they move (we can't have them too obvious now ,can we?) so you'll have to know when fakes are likely to come and be prepared for them, which is easier said than done.
I don't trade one timeframe and i have a simple rule i follow, when PA is too messy in a fast TF i look at higher ones so i don't get lost in the noise and vise versa and this is where multiple screens help.
I suppose when PA is messy it is also telling us something.
Ohh, you may take the above with a grain of salt as i'm not a guru just a guy voicing his opinion
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in relation to stocks..the price moves depending on how different groups interpret information..and..how key data figures will effect the future value of the company

as daytraders..we do not care one hoot about the company..and if it makes 10 $Billion in profits..or loses a 100 Billion..all we care about is the odds of us making money of the next trade..which is executed as part of our overall gambling strategy..and..if we are unable to execute our trades..as and when required..then..it becomes a futile effort

T=$

what is a daytraders worst enemy?

btw..there are no gurus..just bullshit artists..but there is ONE expert..and he goes by the name of TE

The Oracle · Oct 16, 2011

Quote from SnakeEYE:

did anyone get something?

"very good point about radar.....blalalalalalalalalalallaalalalalalallalalalalalalallalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalalallalalalalalalalalalallalalalalala..........

WHAT IT IS?"

jerk.....dumb,stupid,damaged,idiotic clown jerk!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

you are the real deal zeracle!

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
More...

xburbx · Oct 16, 2011

To

Do focus in on individual stock news or overall market news when looking for potential volatility? Or is that not what this quote below was pointing at? To me it is saying to not try to interpret individual stock news but to be ready whichever way it moves pending news.

Quote from The Oracle:

in relation to stocks..the price moves depending on how different groups interpret information..and..how key data figures will effect the future value of the company

as daytraders..we do not care one hoot about the company..and if it makes 10 $Billion in profits..or loses a 100 Billion..all we care about is the odds of us making money of the next trade..which is executed as part of our overall gambling strategy..and..if we are unable to execute our trades..as and when required..then..it becomes a futile effort

T=$

what is a daytraders worst enemy?

btw..there are no gurus..just bullshit artists..but there is ONE expert..and he goes by the name of TE
More...

The Oracle · Oct 16, 2011

Quote from xburbx:

To

Do focus in on individual stock news or overall market news when looking for potential volatility? Or is that not what this quote below was pointing at? To me it is saying to not try to interpret individual stock news but to be ready whichever way it moves pending news.
More...

of course it is wise to know about pending news events like earnings, or whatever else may cause people to buy/sell..but..the question was in relation to something else..more so the trader..than the stock itself

what is a daytraders worst enemy?

it is two words..and it is not snake eye..even though that is also correct

xburbx · Oct 16, 2011

Big loss

The Oracle · Oct 16, 2011

Quote from xburbx:

Big loss
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very good answer XX

not what i had in mind though!

here we go again

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SnakeEYE · Oct 16, 2011

''of course it is lalalalalallalalalalalallala=useless shite=lalalalalalallaal=i`m so dumb that i cant answer the simple questions=lalalalalalaal=but i`ll continue with my babbling since i wannabe guru=llallalalalalalalallaa=WHAT DID I JUST SAY????"