Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

I will postulate 'Market Direction' = "The Obvious".
As to "why" it is not so obvious is due to Trend Relativity.
(MTFA) The current environment can just as accurately be
described as "down" or "up".
This is the phenomenon which engenders opportunity as
well as disaster. I can display a monthly chart with no more
difficulty than a 5s chart. When the "Not So Obvious" *first
begins* to become "The Obvious" *within its context*, my
ODDS of being able to *exploit* "The Obvious" go way up.
I may then decide whether BLASH/SHABL or BHASH/SLABL
is the appropriate strategy and if my threshold of pain
will permit me to allow for the necessary margin for error.
(e.g. SKF lately, whew)
This only works (for me) on those days when I am mentally,
emotionally and physically prepared to DO what needs to
be done. (my challenge) - When I AM in sinc, I cruise.

 

There are couple options

1.) go to the next larger time frames until you dont see the ups and downs.
This is only meaningful if the range is small enough. If it is big enough, then it indicates something else

2.) look for the "abnormality" of the up/down pattern.

3.) as you indicated in 'C'

But in trading, time is of essence, you enter while the "thing" is happening, not after, not before.

Question for you nysestocks

a.) how do one know if the move is real or fake?

b.) what technique can one utilize to enter fast market-, because, most of the time the strong up/down moves will have many large price spreads one stack on top of the other.

Thanks and regards

 

Sorry but I don’t know what you mean. I tried for several hours to define a trading business plan from these statements. After many attempts I gave up. Then I had a great idea. I would talk to some one younger than me who better understood this type of business language. So I emailed my savvy nephew who is in high school. Here was his reply.

Yes, all textbook stuff which is absolutely of no real value!
He relied "every dude in his school says, Yah Man!”

The exit is not the most important thing when trading, as most traders will try and tell you, but the entry is very important!
He replied “Wow, trading has the same principle as they teach in sex ed class!”

BLASH and SHABL about 90%

BHABH and SLABL about 10%

He replied “I’m kind puzzled by these. The only one I know is the SHABL." He said he wants to kiss up to his hot English teacher and he would "use SHABL of Suck Hot A-- with Big Lips.” Sorry I couldn’t write what he actually said.

But the good news is if you teach the course at NYU he said he will sign up. Then we can all figure out what you wrote.

 

Then may be it is time for some of us who are “Idiots” to leave ET and find another forum where we have the freedom to discuss our trading ideas. If ET cannot handle dissent in its forums I doubt it will survive another year. This is the price of freedom; to give all a chance to have their say even if it means a small percentage of the population abuse the privilege. And it remains for those who are level headed to overlook these few responses so we all can gain from the majority of meaningful discussions. And most important each day I still remember my buddy’s in Vietnam who had their heads blown off so I can sit here and write. They paid the ultimate price for me and I take my freedom very seriously…

 

I simply called you out.

How is that off topic?

I truly think that what may be obvious to you may be obvious to others as well, but not necessarily any kind of psychological epiphany.

 

Non-Sequitur.
Proves you can't think.
(Off topic, sorry.)

 

You are right sir. About both of my previous notes. In the heat of the moment I did not use my head. I apologize and have learned another of life’s lessons. ...

 

Brilliant post. Thank you, sir.

 

Hi nysestocks,

for BLASH, what constitutes LOW?

As a retail day trader, one seldomly be able to buy at the bottom of the day. So LOW will be a price based on the reference of a previously occurred price.
Or are you talking about the pivot of a pullback? or high of the previous bar ?
(if one waits for the price to be above certain price reference, such as high of the previous bar, it is really BHASH)
Or are you implying that there is another way to identify the LOW?

Thanks and regards