Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. rossky

    rossky

    Thank you, The Oracle.

    I feel more in sync with this thread now.

    Here's how I see your style:

    ---
    I never teach my pupils. I only attempt to provide the conditions in which they can learn.
    __- Albert Einstein

    ---
    You have to lead people gently toward what they already know is right. - Phil Crosby
     
    #1701     Oct 2, 2011
  2. poland

    poland


    Yes I am because i need to make living.

    I do not believe in trading courses/gurus...and there are too many trading books...and I do not have an close friends who are trader....

    I guess the best bet is to scan thru' cyberspace as there might be 1 or 2 kind hearted traders willing impart some knowledge....
     
    #1702     Oct 2, 2011
  3. aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahahh......aaaaaaaa

    AAHA.............AAAAAAAAAAHAHAAH

    I love you guys.You are right obvious not obvious.Oracle come here i kiss you!

    :D :D :D :D :D
     
    #1703     Oct 2, 2011
  4. poland

    poland

    1) Use 20k as trading capital for 1st 6months
    - 80k goes to the bank

    2) after 6 months if there is no profit, repeat step 1)

    3) if after 6 months still no profit; Close shop and look for new job with 60k left.

    4) if there is profit; increase capital with 50% profit (6 months profit)
    - keep on repeating every month...each time reduce profit by 10%

    5) Until you hit trading capital of 100k.....any excess profit goes to bank...
    From there, trading capital always maintain at 100k....
    and also no leverage from beginning....
    I take this example from a fisherman that is happy to cath fishes with only 1 net....enough is good enough.
     
    #1704     Oct 2, 2011
  5. rossky

    rossky

    Змей, родимый, ты чего такой злобный?

    Помог бы, чем мог. Несогласен с чем, будь добр, объясни.

    Ну жалко смотреть и стыдно как-то даже за тебя. Говоришь же иногда по уму вещи. Приятно и есть чему поучиться. Навредить то ведь толком никому не сможешь, к чему так лениво и тупо свою злобу изливать? Объясни.
     
    #1705     Oct 3, 2011
  6. Íå âåëè êàçíèòü,êíÿçü,âåëè ñëîâî ìîëâèòü!

    Êàê æåøü ÿ ìîãó ïîìî÷ü òî,êîãäà òóò èçâåðãè,ñîëîâüè ðàçáîéíèêè, îêîÿííûå Îðàêëû ñèäÿòü äóìó äóìàþòü.Ñèäÿòü äóìó äóìàþòü, äà ëþäåé â áëóä çîâîäþòü òî. áëóä çàâîäþòü òî äà ñàìè ïðàâäû èùóòü òî.Ñàìè ïðàâäû èùþòü òî äà íå íàõîäþòü ñåé.

    Òåáå á êíÿçü ïîñîâåòîâàë íå ñëóøàòü èõ îêîÿííûõ èáî ñãèíåøü òû ,ñãèíåøü íà ïðîñòîðàõ ÷óæåçåìíûõ.Òàì íà ÷óæáèíóøêå áîÿðå çäðàâûå äà êíÿçè ñëàâíûå.Êíÿçè ñëàâíûÿ,çëàòîì áîõàòûÿ.:D Íå ðîâåíü íàì ñ íèìè êíÿçü ñèëóøêîé òÿãàòüñÿ òî,íî òîêìà çíàíèåì.Îäîëåòü ëèõèõ ïðèñòóïîì íå ïîëó÷èòüñÿ äà îáûãðàòü ñîëîâüÿ â ðóëåòóøêó.

    Ãäå-òî òóò ñðåäè ëåñà òåìíàãà áðîäèò ñòàðåö îäèí, ìóæ çåëî ìóäðûé.Òû ñòóïàé ê íåìó êíÿæå,äà âîçüìè ñ ñîáîé âîäî÷êè.Íå áåðåò îêîÿííàé ìàíåòàþ.Òû âîçüìè êàðàíäàøèêè ðàçíîöâåòíûå, äà áóìàæêè ëèñòîê ïåðãàìåíòíàé.Âñå çàïèñûâàé çàðèñîâûâàé íå êîìó íå ïîêàçûâàé äà íå ðàññêàçûâàé.Êàê íà÷åðòèøü òû ëèíèþ ìèëèîííóþ,ñðàçó ôîêóñ òî è ðàñêðîåöà...Íà îáðàòíîì ïóòü åäü â îáõîä òû ñîëîâóøêè,çàìàíèòü ïîïûòàåòñÿ èçóìðóäàìè...

    ~~~~~~

    :D
     
    #1706     Oct 3, 2011
  7. Thanks, Redneck.
    Nice to see someone finally actually post some genuine content in this thread!
     
    #1707     Oct 3, 2011
  8. Onra

    Onra

    +1

    Newcomers, pay attention!
    The rest of us had to wait almost two years for this moment...
    The market is easy compared with the stress of solving all these puzzles and riddles.:)
    Thanks RN!
     
    #1708     Oct 3, 2011
  9. Redneck

    Redneck


    All I've seen this morning is a meat grinder with an ever so slightly upward bias


    Obviously the person who held on to this opinion – is a total dip shit

    RN
     
    #1709     Oct 3, 2011
  10. rossky

    rossky

    Limited Capital. How do I know how much I can afford to lose?

    Given I have 100,000 to trade with, if I lose 100 dollars on one trade and make one hundred dollars on another, I'm at break-even and even slightly negative because of the slippage and the commissions. Not every trade is a winner. The truth is I think I have a spell on me, because no matter what I try, I still guess it right only 35-50% of the time. What a bummer!

    Thus, I probably, must target to make at least three hundred dollars profit on every trade. Then, over the large number of trades, even if I guess it right only 30% of the time, all my losers are covered and I'm at break-even and 50% winning rate brings me money.

    A very short sample, twenty business days with one trade per day. (Let's look at the best case scenario - 50% winning rate, because 30% = 0) Over that sample then, 2,000 dollars total will be at risk. Half of it will be lost and another half will bring $3,000. $1,000 will be used to cover the losers and 2,000 is left as profit minus commissions.

    And you call it money, you may ask. Well, can I put $1,000 at risk then? Let's see if it's possible.

    Suppose you know that you can risk $0.20 based on the setup you can see on the chart. (Forget about the setup word, let's simply say it's the point in price per share where you entered and the point where you know you are absolutely wrong to stay in the trade if it goes against you and must exit with a loss). How many times $0.20 fits into $1,000 - that's the number of shares you need to buy. = 5,000 shares.

    ---
    The desire to maximize the profits led me in the past to several mistakes: trading a lot on margin, and fooling around with money I made and stop loss levels.

    - I would put a lot of money at risk and to make up for losses I had to use the margin to go in with a proper size.

    - a winning streak would boost my confidence and instead of putting $100 at risk I would put $1,000 from the money "I have made".

    - the consuming desire to make more on every trade would force me place a very tight stop loss, not where the stop would belong.

    ---
    The main lesson that I've learned the hard way (despite the fact that the answer was there all the time) is that the amount at risk must remain constant!

    (Until you double your entire trading capital! And if you don't take anything to the bank, (silly, I know), you can double the amount at risk on any given trade.)

    ---
    Things that I've studied but failed to figure out a solid answer for myself yet:

    - do I trail the stop loss or not,
    - despite the fact that I try to hit the profit target that is three times my loss, I'm still not sure if this is the only solution.

    ---
    If I could only know what the "Obvious" is and "Why the obvious is not so obvious?" it would give me the remaining 10% required to master the trade. I imagine, at least, being on the right side 50-70%
    of the time and still hitting 1/3 Risk:Reward Profit Targets.

    Happy trading to everyone! Cheers,

    rossky
     
    #1710     Oct 3, 2011