Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. NY is the chap, to make you feel hap
    TE is the lad, to make you feel sad:D
    if you feel, got raw deal
    tough shit, ur a git:D

    MK's on the way, since yesterday
    MN is no fool, as he has the tool
    RN is the guy, with the extra eye
    he now has the way, he calls is "IA":D

    you will do, what you do
    what you do, is for you
    when you do, what you do
    like you do, not for you:D

    so fuk off, u dumb toff
    get ur brain, out of drain
    for clear it do be, that u can not see
    u are but a know all, who knows, "SWEET FUK ALL":D
     
    #1171     Jul 19, 2010
  2. yoramva

    yoramva

    I think this is the obvious:
    Take all methods/system that are generated by the so called experts and novices alike.
    Buy into these methods setups when they are signaling to sell
    (buy to the point before they start sell and bail out(sell) when they start)
    Sell into this methods setups when they are signaling to buy(sell at some point beforee they buy and bailout -buy back when they buy).
    Alwasy now where orders are located on the charts and just trade your way to them.
     
    #1172     Aug 15, 2010
  3. Gee, your a poet and I didn't know it

    Great Post!
     
    #1173     Aug 19, 2010
  4. great poet, It's one of the most interesting poet about trading i've ever read
     
    #1174     Aug 25, 2010
  5. LOL. And enlightening!
     
    #1175     Oct 5, 2010
  6. chartman

    chartman

    So have I. In fact I have sit all day with the best bid/ask and watch hundreds of trades go by on the tape worst than my price. Talk about screwing the poor public suckers. There is no such animal as the NBBO. I have documented trades several times and provided it to the SEC. No reply. The obvious is obvious. The game is stacked against the small retail trader.
     
    #1176     Oct 5, 2010
  7. RedDuke

    RedDuke

    Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

    Because it is the opposite.
     
    #1177     Oct 28, 2010
  8. for those who cannot firgure it out :p, please learn how to trade:cool:
     
    #1178     Oct 31, 2010
  9. XEC10

    XEC10

    What is it that a trader should do when considering to take a trade? Answer that and the 'required OBVIOUS' should become clear.

    We look at a price chart and within our timescale of interest, we decide where price may go to as a possible target, and where it may go to as a possible stop, or whether price may not move much at all. We use our experience of interpreting charts, observed S/R levels, market indices, futures, news and conclude the likely future direction and extent of a price move.

    Some traders have more trading experience and access to information than others, which can be used to narrow down the uncertainty of price movement. The lack of precise information means that we consider a range of possible outcomes of a trade and we try to manage the uncertainty and risk:reward by thinking in terms of probabilities, of our target being hit before the stop:


    Expected_gain = Expected_win x Probabilty_of_win - Expected_loss x Probability_of_loss


    We try to choose the entry, target and stop so that the expected gain is positive and that the risk:reward is sufficient:

    RR = Expected_win / Expected_loss.


    Each trade is unique and won't be repeated, but we take the trade on the understanding that if the trade could be repeated with our choosen entry, target and stop under the same conditions, except for those aspects that are uncertain, then the odds are in our favor the we would gain in the long run for that particular trade.

    This is what the 'required OBVIOUS' is to me as a gambler.
     
    #1179     Nov 28, 2010
  10. smili

    smili

    I read about the first 55 pages of this thread.... No idea why.

    Here's about all I can gather:

    It seems it's obvious that the Price moves, but it's not obvious why the price moves.

    You go to Wal-Mart and you can buy something all day long at the same price. Why is there a different price every 5 seconds on the exchange? This seems a very artificial or abnormal market. It should surprise us that day trading is even possible.

    Why should the price of anything change so quickly? And I guess even more to the point - to whose advantage is it that prices often swing wildly? There's this casino that's been built, and we all come and play in it. per this thread 95% of day traders lose. Who is winning - and would they be winning without the volatility? Is the volatility artificial? Is it just noise arising from a complex system? Should most stocks daily charts be roughly flat? I don't know, just throwing things out, but the underlying theme I'm getting from the thread is there isn't a meaning behind most of the short term price movements. They just happen. Nobody really talks about the underlying value of anything in any of the posts - at least from what I can recall. Everybody is just talking about trading a chart - trying to guess where everybody else thinks the price should go before the other guy thinks it.

    The other thing that strikes me from this thread: it's very possible to make a correct trade in all aspects and still lose. (like Picard points out to commander Data - it's possible to lose without making any mistakes.)

    Anyhow, my $0.02
     
    #1180     Dec 5, 2010