Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious?

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by nysestocks, Jan 25, 2009.

  1. Mysteron

    Mysteron

    I dislike psychometric tests as I've had to do a few when applying for jobs in the very distant past. On one occasion the HR person gave me instant feedback and stated that according to the test I was "justice orientated", and asked if I agreed. Well, I wasn't interested in playing the game so I just agreed to get it over with. It was only some time afterwards that I realised that maybe the real test was how a candidate responded to an idiotic statement about themselves, or maybe the HR Dept did take the result seriously, I don't know, and then again the statement itself seems open to interpretation and not at all objective. I didn't get the job but did get another eventually, but, as a result of a merger I ended up working for that same company after all.

    As this is for fun and not a job interview (or is it?) heres my response: (and please don't tell me I'm "justice orientated")

    1 - 2
    2 - 3
    3 - 3
    4 - 4
    5 - 5
    6 - 1
    7 - 4
    8 - 2
    9 - 3
    10 - 5
    11 - 1
    12 - 3
    13 - 2
    14 - 2
    15 - 4
    16 - 4
    17 - 4
    18 - 4
    19 - 4
    20 - 3
    21 - 4
    22 - 4
    23 - 5
    24 - 3
    25 - 3
     
    #1111     Jun 2, 2010
  2. Mysteron

    Mysteron

    I believe that if 23 people are selected randomly the probability of at least 2 sharing a birthday is greater than 0.5, and for 22 people selected randomly the probability is less than 0.5. I did a course in probability as part of my education and recall that problem was set as a task to solve. The key to solving it is to turn the problem around ("think differently") and consider (1 minus) the probability of a group of people all having distinct birthdays.

    As I have familiarity with basic concepts of probability I can see how the problem is solved and therefore there is no mystery for me, although when the number 23 was calculated there was a sense of suprise. For anyone who does not have an understanding of probability concepts though then the mystery will always remain.

    So to solve some problems the correct way of looking at the problem is needed together with the right mindset or concepts.

    TE, I don't know what the "obvious" secret is yet, despite spending many a happy hour looking at charts, but it has occured to me that for the "secret" to become obvious then charts may need to be looked at in a particular way and with certain concepts in mind. Is that right, and if so how do I go about getting the right mindset?
     
    #1112     Jun 2, 2010
  3. Mysteron

    Mysteron

    I've been reading through this thread but haven't completed it yet. Theres never enough time these days to do everything I'd like to do.

    Based on what I've read so far I suppose the simple answer to my last post is to spend time to think and research how the markets work, and then the understanding which follows will provide the right mindset to see the "obvious".
     
    #1113     Jun 2, 2010
  4. 1. The main theme seems to be "use your brain & eyes". Learn to think correctly, have a plan/process, and always think before you act.
    2. If you don't use your brain you're just going to rely on others and never get anywhere.
    3. We haven't been educated to think; most of us have just been taught to memorize what's in books and to glorify others instead of relying on ourselves.
    4. One can develop a process for themselves and figure out for themselves what are the "key" things they need to know. A person can also do puzzles or brainteasers or something that requires them to use their brain.
    5. One will know it when they know it. It'll have the ring of truth to them when they know it.
     
    #1114     Jun 2, 2010
  5. TE,

    Who is the person you learned from and how were you lucky enough to learn from him/her?

    Did the person teach you how to trade, how to think, or both?
     
    #1115     Jun 2, 2010
  6. A wise man learns from the mistakes of others:D

    Take what you can from others, remember the good bits, forget the stupid bits, and ALWAYS do what you MUST do, not what you THINK you must do:eek:

    I taught myself the best approach for me, but, I did learn a few KEY things from others that showed me what I needed to know in order to be able to make GOOD money, for, it is easy to make money trading, easier to lose it, but, it is very hard to make GOOD money, each and every day. and, that is why the real TA is required, for, some of those I learned from had one big problem, and that was, and probably still is, that they are unable to hold on to the GOOD money, and, then you must ask what the hell is it all about, for, it is no good making GOOD money if you are unable to hold on to it:cool:

    You have been shown enough to make GOOD money, whether you make it or not, is up to YOU, but, one thing is for sure, and that is, unless you do the required work, you will NEVER make it.

    TE
     
    #1116     Jun 3, 2010
  7. Do not waste time like most do:eek:

    Trade 100 shares until you GET IT RIGHT, for, then, it is just a MATTER OF SIZE:D

    The Generals move the market, so trade with The Generals.

    ALWAYS set yourself a TARGET, and, ALWAYS have a VISION of where you want to be in a few years.

    THINK BIG, not small:D

    If you think you are a loser, then that is what you will be, for, you are what you think:cool:


    BTW, you can think about winning the lotto all you like, but, if you never buy a ticket, you will NEVER win.

    TE
     
    #1117     Jun 3, 2010
  8. I bet the first was numbers, and the second letters:D

    My laptop with the brain book is not with me, so, will have to wait for the answer:D

    BTW, those pictures are my own, with a FUJI camera I paid about $100 for:eek:

    EURUSD looks like it wants to test the 1.18 lows, but, as usual, we must trade what we actually see each day, and not what we think we see, for, Time = Money :cool:

    It is amazing what people are using computers for these days:D

    TE
     
    #1118     Jun 3, 2010
  9. Redneck

    Redneck

    :)


    For good... and bad....

    RN
     
    #1119     Jun 4, 2010
  10. odlareg

    odlareg

     
    #1120     Jun 4, 2010