I surely know my IQ is pretty low (and the quality as well as readership of threads on ET is generally high), but, Do you guys really understand what the following thread is talking about? (Please be honest to yourself!) Use simple and plain English, please! "Why Is The Obvious Not So Obvious? http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=151802"
I wasted about two hours of my life reading that thread (which is now over 500 posts). I learned nothing. I think that thread should come with a warning. After a few hundred messages, the OP starts writing like Dr. Seuss. Really! So, sorry, I'm of no help, but at least I'm brief about it.
Odd Trader: NYSEstocks started the thread. He was puzzled by some things. Now he no longer participates and the interim control of the thread fell to TO and he has been described above. Personally, I am spending three days on the thread to illustrate live calling, the building of capital, and the consequences of compounding. I am using a beginner or advanced beginning level of sophisitcation. Tomorrow ends three days of building capital by doubling the capital where 30 points of profit in ES e-mini is the instrument. To switch the conversation from "inventions" to maiking money, I began with the concept of making calls a few bars before each taking of profits of segments. Now others illustrate the market flow with coordinated charts. Yesterday I just tabbed the trades of the day and called the end of the day so the open entry this am would be covered. Today I did the opening trade (the long call from yesterday) in detail and showed the next beginning of a short. There was a long on bar 26 so now the day is in its third hold. Tomorrow will complete "doubling" of capital in three consecutive days. Then I will move on. TO who took over from the original OP (NYSESTOCKS) has been acting out and part of that is fragmenting the thread to only include those he can control.and relate to. In a month he will have his new invention completed, he avers. The thread topic under trade management is a good one. Most people never see the market. By calling and demo'ing doubling capital in three days, it is possible to put some light on how the trader partners with the market (on a beginner level) and then "reads" the OOE's of five logical aspects as they intertwine to make everything in the market operation quite obvious. This is the original theme of the thread. I do calls 2 to 3 bars ahead (5 min) so everyone can be focussed on what is going on. The routine is MADA. And the method is named SCT a fallout of PEP the foundation of my three methods. The other two are PVT and SSR. All is based on the now named softwre RDBMS. SQL is a populare rendition that uuses the requird finite maths.
Why the obvious is not so obvious boils down to a few things. The markets are systematic and this is not generally known nor understood. to bring forth the precise operation of markets, it is required to obey mathematic principles and moreso logic principles. No one at all really does this for reasons of their chosing. In 1957, I felt the obligation to do the design and development of a system using SA. I recognized that if I made mistakes, my mind would be affected and I could not erase the mistakes. Engineering training and theortetical phyicis advocates this and both punish violators. In EE, electrocution was prevelant at that time as an eample to me. By 1957, stepping in front of a Nike antenna would simply fry a person on the spot as well. As an undergraduate I was made an MTS at BTL and before that at WECO I was offered a life time job. I went to work for IBM, my only job in my life for 5 years. The market's operation became obvious to me in one month of trading. I deduced a paradigm. The paradigm has a HS and a PM. Boolean Algebra is the fintie math to use. Keynes explains how "like kind" Hypotheses are required and the set must be complete. Carnap created the lgoic theory which uses Boolean Algebra. Neither of the above expected that the PM would be a binary vector which would be used in the Algebra. This bridge made it possible to work primarily with the Behavioral Finance of markets. People had to be the subject of the paradigm and the logic used to make the paradigm function pragmatically as a system. The trader has to have an analytical orientation to the market; hence systems analysis. The APL lab at UCSC had 2 360's back to back when I was there. RDBMS came out of that research for languages around which to design computers. Granularity was the key foundational element that made a complete fully rational system of the market's operation a pragmatic reality. A poor nun took advantage of granularity to build a system of integers into Arithmetic and it is named for her. the learner's mind goes through a wonderful experience. (Montisori) The finite cases of two adjacent bars yields the same type of sytemmic result. The market becomes obvious. Completely obvious. A set of ATS's result for various trading systems like PVT, SCT and SSR. They all come from PEP as a paradym with a complete HS and a complete PM. QED.
Sorry, I cannot render an opinion (as in rendering fat), because every day I search on Jack and read only his posts. He is the best very ET has to offer, and I don't waste my time on anyone else. If you found the subject thread incomprehensible, perhaps you should do as I do.
The thread is about the entries.That is,the enter is what most important in trading,if you get the entries righ - you win,if you get the entries wrong - you lose.This is what the thread was about,until the oral derailed it.
If a neophyte was interested in learning to understand the language used in the system being traded by Mr. Hershey, where might he begin? I followed along yesterday and this morning and was intrigued by what I glimpsed. Unfortunately despite seeing it in action through a window that was opened a sliver, I cannot grasp what rules were used.
the obvious, is not so obvious, because it is not obvious... People generally try to outsmart the market instead of realizing that it is a living beast that is always changing, adapting, and reacting. Its not a mathematical formula that you can define( and trust me ive tried).. its like a blade of grass ... depending on the type of grass seed it come from it could have thousands if not millions of different phenotypes that can emerge from one single seed.. and even then the amount of sun, water, and nutrients it gets can change how it grows. The soil and combinations of different surrounding plants can effect how it spreads... that is the market ... billions of things combined in billion different ways creating billions of billions of outcomes.. none of which can be predicted by anyone.. but one can grow to understand the life of the market... I can see when the seed is planted, I can see the seed crack and the tap root emerge, I can see the root sink deep into the earth.. While I cannot predict the weather or know whether the seed will thrive I can see that the conditions at present are dry or wet, sunny or shady, I can see the leaves pop from under the dirt and I can watch as the plant grows and gives fruit. at any point in time the future is random.. there could be a drought, there could be a monsoon... but thats the beauty of it isnt it.. most people can not change the mindset from control and conquer to watch, listen, and assist. Read the flow of the market like watching the flow of a river and just go along for the ride...