I have been bearish forever. I stated my concerns on this board back in March of 2007, which left me a bit too early and I paid for it. The only thing that makes me an ounce bullish is that fact that so many people are so bearish. The path of maximum frustration is higher, and while I think it is totally wrong, I would not be shocked to see us head that way. I am not pressing the short side here. The easy money is gone. I am happy to sit on the sidelines and wait. I am looking for the bond market to lead the way. If the inflation monster rears its head, I am jumping in short treasuries and long commodities.
Felix Zulauf has said we're still in a secular bear market from 2000. People shit on the TARP, but without it I doubt there would be a bank left. We haven't even stopped the bleeding at the banks yet. Housing is still falling (although at a slower pace) We're going lower. I really don't think it will last very long. But, all these baby boomers are gonna puke up everything in their 401k - what's left of them. We haven't seen any real panic yet. Then the 401ks will be nationalized - http://www.publicradio.org/columns/...rsonal/2008/10/nationalizing_401k_assets.html and the genius proposing this is an econ prof at notre dame and she was then proposing to give people a high water mark going back to the summer! "We'll erase all your 401k losses if you fork em over!" - http://www.workforce.com/section/00/article/25/83/58.php
its a good time to set up account with sharebuilder and put $1500 per month into 10 blue chips! by the time crisis is over you'll have nice nest egg build up! ;-))
What remains a mystery is why stocks fell so suddenly between Late September and early October. The sp00z lost 350 points in the span of two weeks, but has remained relitivley flat since then. It was if in the span of two weeks the whole world changed.
This is one of the biggest crises in history, so logically it would lead to a longer than average bear market with greater than average percentage decline.
This isn't my chart but it makes sense to me. I think that the market needs to sucker in a few more longs. There are several ways to look at the charts.. http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/2009-01-22_spx.png
Gee. It's all a mystery. Maybe the horrendous shape of an economy that's getting worse has something to do with it? Maybe corporate earnings' estimates and dividends are in question? If there was any doubt, no matter how little, that you are a troll, this sentence alone proves it. No one, and I mean no one, can be as stupid as you and have access to a computer and broadband.
The market is in a cyclial bear market so there are excessing forces on the upside, the markets to rise is like trying to swim upside a river, it's really hard to make any meaningful advance. Thats why we only got this small bounce from the november low point.
I dont think thats a great mystery in my book. Just look at the data... http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=table&key=278&category=8 You also have tax loss selling in the 4th quarter. Unwinding margin debt, tax loss selling. Thats why it fell. By the way, if the margin debt falls in the same proportions as 2000-2002 bear then it will level out at 176k which isnt far away. However if you believe that this time is much worse then last time then I would say the floor to the debt might lie in the high double digits-low 100s.
Normally, I'd move any stock_trad3r post into chit chat. But since he's finally showing some signs of reality, we'll leave it. Could that in itself be a sign?