it has been 3.5 months since the October 10th plunge an the major indexes keep edging lower. There has been no meaningful rebound since then. I figured by now we'd see the dow at 10,000 by now. but this kinda sucks. People should consider not selling anymore.
I asked myself this same question sometime in 2001 and it wasnt answered until late 2002. We are only a little over 1 year into this. Bear markets usually last a good 2-3 years. We are not even half-way through. Guys like Jesse Livermore traded nicely through bear markets, but the last time I checked, you are not him. Therefore, my best advice for you is to stay away from the market and save your money for the next 12 months. Have some fun while your at it. When the fire is out and the smoke clears, only then will it be good to get in. If you have current long positions and you refuse to sell, you may not see any appreciation for at least 3-4 years. Probably even more. Cisco never returned to its old highs. I wish you well, but now is not the time to be looking at the markets. Its time for you to work, have fun and save. Come back when its good again.
Wrong again. Sorry friends, but the average Bear market since WW-II lasts roughly 15 months (the average recession, about 11 months), with the average S&P decline being roughly 34%. http://www.investmentmoats.com/on-great-fund-managers/perma-bear-steve-leuthold-growing-horns/ http://thedowtheory.com/bear&recessions.htm
The main hinderance for an expediated economic recovery is certainty in the US tax code. The current tax regmin is due to expire within a year and there is no concrete agreement as to what will replace it. Going forward, CPO's and small business do not know how to allocate capital so as to minimise tax consequenses. After all, Adam Smith and Milton Friedman taught us that individuals and businesses react to market and govermental forces in ways to enhance the bottom line. The best solution to this economic morass is to make permanet the current tax regimine-or establish the fair tax.
How would you rate the current time to other times? I would say that this current time compares very well with the Great Depression. This isnt a simple recession, but one of great magnitude and proportion. I would say that we hit lower lows in the next 12 months. This is one where you want to sit on the sidelines a while longer and watch the fun.
When "most" of the people will be feeling exactly like you, we will have a bottom, -- As Zewig has said, people will become very apathetic at the market bottom after many attempts to rally fails, then bull market begins. However, market has not read those lines or studied past statistics, so deciding that this recession will finish at certain time based on prior data may prove to be incorrect. I also think that reaching bottom means that we go up, it may just be a U-shaped bottom, where you sit at the bottom for many months.
Come on people wake up this bear market will go down in history as the longest. If you think this bear market is going to end in 18 months or 2 years your a fool. This bear market is going to be here for years to come. See you at new lows very soon.