Today's close was interesting. Rally fizzed out once OBAMA's panic speech began. "Infrastructure Projects" as in another Great Works socialistic shovel project is needed? Hummm? They, the pundits tried as hard as they could to sell the glass half full. This is beyond a gift to short. Of course, the Risk is there but one can smell the bullshit from a mile a way with the market's volume. 1250 is key resistance as some one pointed out to me. Very true, but what is going to push the S&P to 1250? Majority of CEO's in this country see no growth, to little growth, are not hiring, are saying OBAMA and CONGRESS are standing in the way of a recovery in General. Job numbers are not going to come in positive, no matter what way these clowns well spin. Not sure how far we can sell off but I can see this Dow going into 9000s easy over the next quarter. There is nothing in sight that tells of a recovery. In fact credit markets are pricing in a Recession. There is a divergence between the Credit Markets and the Stock Market. I'm betting the Stock Market has it wrong, no matter how far out the market is looking.
Great post. Its nice to hear when someone (for once) nails it on the head. I was wtching CNBC as I ate lunch alone, for the first time I heard one guy get it right. Not trying to sound like a genius, but these phonies on the market channels are so easy to spot.
If there is a recession and you are right about everything, what is the "right" price for the sp500. Not what it can trade to but where should it trade and why? (a 100 point band would be okay)
In January 2009, the month Obama took office, the average price of a gallon of reguar gasoline in the US was $1.85, and Deisel $2.38. Prices have risen steadily since, but are still well short of the $4.12 average price seen in May of 2008. It seems to be very close to the high price it was when Bush was in office. No? Here is a site which tracks gas & oil prices, which may be of interest: http://zfacts.com/p/35.html REFERENCE: http://www.quora.com/What-was-the-price-of-gas-when-Obama-took-office
I haven't watched CNBS in a long time, but the years I did watch it wee enough to last a lifetime. And to think that 12-15 years ago, it really wasn't that bad. Granted, the amount of denial and self-rationalization has gone parabolic in the past decade, but still... Anyhow, it's just a basic rule of thumb that 95% of all media pundits are cheerleaders for the market pump. It might not be stocks, they might be fully invested in energies or metals or more than likely just "always in" equities. They can always rationalize away getting killed in 2008 since most of their peers bit the big one as well. But if they are not fully invested on the bull side and the shit rips 10% higher, well that might be career suicide. Even many of the so-called hedge funds are up the creek on the sharp declines. It's all groupthink gone wild.
That's very true since we've seen that Fed injected liquidity can temporarily distort whatever the so-called "fair value" for the market might be. Of course, perma-bulls get all bent out of shape with this notion that artificially low rates, currency debasement and an overly active central bank might trump whatever "fundamentals" that they ascribe as the main catalyst.