Pundits are calling for a short covering, which I do not see that happening. Would one rather go short over the weekend or Long? The idiotic statement that "EVERYONE IS SHORT" makes zero cents. Look at the VOLUME!!!!! Everyone is out of the market for the most part....and the clowns that are in the market are long in their 401KS. So, is "EVERYONE" long this market as 401ks now make up the bulk of the "holdings" along with Pensions? Bottom line, Bulls have zero hope other than QE3. This could come at anytime. Including an emergency announcement over the weekend. But never the less, the Risk/reward is on the short side. Tomorrows numbers will not surprise to the upside, the cat is outa the bag. The ISM numbers, once looked into ...were not good. ISM above 50 is just clinging on to HOPE AND CHANGE. The Presidents Rush to start the Great Works Project TWO....is a joke and anyone with half a brain knows it will not create enough jobs and it will cost tax payers billions. Bottom line, Economy is not getting better, it's getting worse. It will take main street a few quarters to wake up...Wall Street will scream, kick and draging the GLASS IS HALF FULL crap. Remember, being a fool is one thing....to understand reality is to be awake. Does not meanyou become a "Gloom and Doomer", just means you are aware of what the hell is going on and how to prosper. Gloom and Doom is reality...but plenty of people making money, in all kinds of industries.
You're insane buddy. You think this is a Depression. It's not. You'd argue the sky is red when its blue.
Hey, I'm brand new to ET. My first post. For the past week, I've just been bouncing around and reading posts. Funny to watch people fight with each other over the internet over silly things. Anyway, I just wanted to throw in my two cents about this market. Obviously, the market doesn't know it's ass from a hole in the ground right now, as you can see from the volatile whipsaw action that takes place. I think the most telling thing is that the market tends to ignore news. This says that so much is already priced in to every announcement. The reality is that anyone who is bearish, has every logical reason to be. The economy stinks. Companies that are doing well aren't spending or hiring. Europe is in a guillotine ready for execution. Asia isn't exactly the teacher's pet anymore. The problem is exactly that though. For any of these markets to find a direction, the cash has to have a good path to flow from the garbage. The dollar sucks, but so does everything else. Gold is too expensive, but then again, is it? There just isn't a distinct place for the cash to run, so the markets jump up and down frantically looking for the secret. The point is, I think that everyone needs to realize that the trading environment has changed and probably won't go back to the way it was for a long time. Expect global stagnation until something epic or catastrophic happens to shake it loose. I've been trading 12 years and I've never seen markets like this; not the tech-bubble burst, not 9-11, not even the crash in 2007-2008 is comparable. Everyone is shrugging their shoulders in anticipation for "what's next?". In my humble opinion, the best bet is to plan short-term trades, stay small in your positions, and avoid acting on speculation. It's just too dangerous. The market will likely float down, but slowly and with lots of bounces. Thanks for entertaining my comments. Keep your chins up.
^-- regarding volume: me, possibly you too, and all other wall streeters are enjoying vacation now. Doesn't mean they're all out though, just light *trading*
What happened to your promise to leave this place? Do you actually think that you have an audience for your stupidity?
In case you haven't noticed, gas prices go down during recessions. January 2009 was the peak of the recession, oil consumption was low. Markets rally when oil moves higher because it tells you there is growth. You obviously do not follow markets when you "trade". The ignorance on these boards is staggering. No wonder traders lose money.
You sound just as full of shit as Dead-Ender. The price of oil can increase as a function of currency depreciation as well, especially for a country that imports the bulk of their supply. And as we have seen, "Growth" can be revised dramatically months after the headline numbers are released. So now that the world knows all of the past year's "growth" was nothing more than a mirage, care to re-think your whole oil rising as a function of growth theory?
Oil declines on dollar rise which is safe haven in times of market collapses, which is the pattern the past 11 years. Oil trades in US dollars. Furthermore, you add recessionary pressures and we get oil at 30 on negative growth, an extreme low. The low oil of the 90's was mostly due to a strong dollar, low inflation, and an abundance of supply due to the dumping on US markets by the Saudis, Mexico and Venezuela. Domestic oil filed a petition, clearly outlining the scam by those exporters to keep US consumers on fossil fuel binges with high consumption vehicles, nipping in the bud alternatives . In the end, that over-consumption at such low prices kicked in the higher prices of the following decade, but prices are always relative. From 2000 to 2002, oil prices dropped from 28 to 16.65, a 40% drop, due to the recession. Then followed a period of growth, but this time triggered by a lower dollar, a recipe for extreme higher oil. Do you trade oil? I don't think so. I do, every day. Along with related currency pairs. In any case, it is moronic to attribute low gasoline in January 2009 to anything other than the depth of the recession and a dollar bid against the euro (60% of DXY) on safe haven appeal.