Big mistake. It is down right now. Should have waited out the rally. Short is obviously the way to go...
This is slow move today off the bell is a great sign for the Shorts. Productivity is down, Unemployment still super weak, no mater how they spin it. This market looks to have stall'd dead in it tracks. Of course, manipulation could come .....but where are all the "INFLOWS" of money the idiots on CNBC and BLOMBERG speak of for the 401ks et al?
I would say SHORT is the best Risk/Reward. I wouldn't say obvious. It's obvious we are in a recession, it's obvious that the credit markets back the idea of a recession, it's obvious the economy is getting weaker, not stronger.....BUT when it comes to the US STOCK MARKET....it's obvious that it's manipulated, not obvious to short. If an QE3 is a go ......this market will scream for the short term. the scum bags on Wall Street are praying for that.
Fair point about the economic backdrop worsening, and fair point about QE3 being manipulation of the markets. But why is the US being in a recession mean that Short is the best risk/reward? Why do you think that the recession isn't priced into the markets?
ISM shows three production reports lower each time. NO, the market has not priced in the recession. If that where the case, IMHO, Dow would be closer to 9000. QE1, 2 prop'd this market up with hot air. There never was a "RECOVERY". Do not take my word for it. Look at all the Productivity reports from 08 til today. A normal hint of a recovery, 250k jobs are created during that first stage. We have no where near that. Bottom line. Read between the lines and throw all the old school talk about the "Markets Priced in the Recession". They want you to believe that in order to keep money flowing in. So just like the plague of Structural Unemployment hitting this country now, same with the "Market" theories. They are old, most no longer apply and we are in un-charted territories. One could look at Japan's Lost Decade to try and measure. But over all, no one knows what the hell is going on. And keep in mind, We are going into a serious uncharted territory for the Election Year. It's Socialism, (OBAMA) Corporate Socialism (Republicans) vs Capitalism and Free Markets (PAUL). This is a huge cross roads and I'm sure the market will be all over the place with Volatility.
If it is that obvious, then it is an opportunity for you to short the market at the top. That is a golden opportunity to take advantage of something that you are so certain will happen. Carol
I think you are making very valid points about the economy, the lack of a recovery, and about the uncharted territory. Why do you think we should be trading at 9000 vs 11000 or 7000? I am personally concerned about the uncharted territory and that being a precursor for more volatility.
I agree with this statement. I can't account for all of the stocks in the market, but the stocks that make up the DOW appear to be pretty high. I have a large holding of shorts and everytime the market/dow has a nice drop like a few weeks ago, I close a lot of short positions profitably. Long positions go up slowly, but the shorts move quickly. It's just ugly to look at the open short positions while the market is slowly moving higher, but every few months holding the shorts pays off big.
I agree It is hard to understand why we continue to "trend" higher. I can understand moving in "fits & starts" but the way it's moving I guess the downgrade and any other lackluster economic news is unimportant to the idiots. Didn't we just plummet a few weeks ago???!! Everyone thought the world was ending.