I'm not asking for a crystal ball but if you are shorting at 1000 or if you are buying at 1250 you must have some opinion that those levels are the wrong price. If someone claims the market should go down because the economic data is bad they must have some opinion as to what level the market should have been be to rally on that data.
I made a new thread about this, but i think its as applicable in this one: "What to expect from this September? I see lots of financial trouble, mainly from EU, creating turbulence and upsets! Good luck to all, and enjoy the ride!" I DO vote down
sept is normally a bad month but because those in power refuse to let the market adjust down and any negative news is down played or the talk of more stimulis is leaked to the press to keep the market propped. this sept will probably go like last year, up up and away.
If you think the fair value is distorted then you must have an opinion as to what the undistorted value is. I am now nuetral on equities. Unemployment doesn't matter. Spx earnings are 80. Give this is the largest most stable companies it should trade at a pe equal to the long term treasury. Earnings generally grow because of innovation but there is greater risk in equities to treasuries so I figure they cancel out. (this is all rough math anyway). So pe is roughly 15. Long term pe should be 20 (as long term rates are like 5percent in general) but given the uncertainty on near term earnings a discount is warranted. A pe of 12 is not (1000) but 15 to 17 is reasonable. So I think 1250ish is a reasonable price. The liquidity pumping hasn't grown the economy so their should be no expansion and this contributes to the discount. Accordingly I cut my macro long today and am just trading my single stocks (which have their own stock specific theses). Just want to know what the short thesis is regarding price and the macro data is.
I believe "Fly Down" is posting under a new name now due to his/her brutal trading calls in 2010. I'm actually thinking this Gordon Gekko is a possibility.
You're a fucking moron who makes all the good people on this board making money look like losers hanging out with people like you.. How much money did you lose today? How bad are you down for the year? How bout that family?
You seem overly protective of "Fly Down", a fictional person who trades very badly. Hmmm, what could that mean now .
I don't think the public on a large scale understands that we won't be seeing any economic growth. When there is no good news, they will look for good news and markets will come up. When the rose colored glasses come off once again then markets will sell off. Price action is largely based off emotion and blind optimism (the general rule is people like to see stocks go up rather than down), why are there so many people in this thread surprised to see that markets are rising in a shitty state of affairs? It's not like this hasn't happened before.
Both of you are fags, especially for randomly labeling me as a troll... obviously given the seemingly high level of reject morons on this site, it's not much of a surprise. Although you do sell me your losing shares, and I buy your losing ones whn I cover. What is it that attracts you to a game good people like is work at?