It's shoudn't come as a surprise, there has been talk long overdue Usd bounce for a while now. Compared to other western currencies the FED (now at 2% interest rates) have little room for further cuts. Considering this, I think that the recent attempted breakout in Eur/Usd was an attractive place for many to take profits.
USD going up? You mean just during the last few days. I look since 2002 and the only way for the USD is south.
the us dollar will not fall forever.. currencies always trend for years and it is time for the dollar to rebound.. .. dollar goes higher of the next four years until the euro and dollar are very evenly matched.. this should occur while we have a new president.. pull out of iraq.. and clear up the real estate maket... you yourself should look at a long term dollar chart.. say going bakc 30 years adn see how the currency actually moves for years at a time. The dollar i believe has hit its lows.
Iran now selling oil in euro and yen and Argentina/Brazil commencing cross border trading without the dollar as the pivot currency just may be two small examples of a trend towards shrinking the dollar reach. In fact if you cast around you will see many examples of the dollar reach shrinking. If this is a growing trend, then where is the dollar heading regards f9
I have to disagree here. The US dollar is an extremely flawed currency backed by a wreckless government that doesn't care about inflation. All this news that the FED will stop cutting rates at 2% is making the dollar stronger but the rates are still <b>way too low</b>. If we take 5% as the mean value inflation should still be a huge factor with 2% rates. Just the notion that the Fed portrays it's actions as disinflationary is sending the euro crashing. This is all smoke and mirrors in a veiled attempt to keep the dollar from dropping even more, which it will. It is in inevitable the US government will stay on its course of wreckless debt-financing and massive liquidity injecions. The US dollar is going down in the long run... this move we're seeing is strictly short term. You also mentioned 30 year chart.... well here is one: <img src="http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wood/2008/images/0502.h1.gif"> Dollar was extremely strong going into the mid 80's because interest rates were at 20%!!!. This cheart actually looks increadibly bearish to me, with us sitting now at all time lows.
look.. you can state all the fancy statistics you want... us dollar will stengthen or move sideways here.. i do not see it mocving much lower... obviously our difference of opinion is what makes the markets move! anyway.. i think anyone shorting the dollar (longer term) over the next several months or years is in for a rude awakening.. you are not taking into account how terrible the US image is right now! This has pushed our currency down.. also oil prices.. cannot be maintained at this level.. the government is not going to lose out on taxes so they will start to prop up the dollar to get oil prices lower.. Lets make a gentlemans bet... today is May 3, 2008.. the us doillar index closed at 73.69... i say in 6 months (october 3, 2008) the us dollar is higher than it is now.. you want to take the opposite side? We'll check back in six months to see who is right.. this way we can prove one of us right or wrong.. no face rubbing I promise when you lose!! Have a great weekend nice chart.. YOU SHOULD INVERT THAT CHART.. SERIOULSY PRINT IT OUT AND FLIP IT UPSIDE DOWN.... IF WE WERE TALKING ABOUT A PARABOLIC UP MOVE ..IF THAT CHART WERE AAPL... OR WHEAT WOULD YOU SERIOULSY BE A BUYER..UP AT THESE LEVELS.. I BET NOT.. I THINK YOU WOULD BE WISE TO SHORT IT buy) .. THAT CHART INVERTED REMINDS OF THE DOT COM BUBBLE BUT IN THE REVERSE.. look markets have thresholds.. its due to rebound strongly over the next few years..
Fancy stats? Was it the chart I posted or the fact that I said interest rates were at 2%? In any case, I think there are legs for a short term rally in the dollar so I can't say for sure if we'll be crossing the lows again in 6 months. I will bet on a longer term horizon though... (and this time for money).
Most people would expect what you are saying to be true and logical considering consistent downtrend of USD. But it isn't so. According to Economist's chart from 2-3 issues back, USD portion of reserved currencies in developing countries hasn't changed at all. In developed countries, USD gave up 1-2 % to Euro. So nothing changed in this matter.
paul.. its funny how now that i put it out there.. in public.. for no money period.. just a bet.. you say i will do it for Real money..lol.. what ever.. okay.. i will bet 1 billion dollars on it just like soros and the pound... you also said.. oh yeah it will be lower at some horizon in future.. thts like saying yeah in the future there will be a tornado in georgia.. of course at some point in the future... with trading you need to be able to pick an entry.. have a traget in mind and know exactly what your time horizon is going to be for the trade.. anyway.. i think the dolalr hit 78 or 79 durign some point in the next six months... i do not hink it will drop below 68.80.. so my "demo trade" would be bu it now with a stop at 68.80 and a target of 78 over the next six months months... if i am wrong.. so what..