When many people start to ask this question, I think it's the beginning of the end, meaning that oil is close to the top. The same way as the housing market.
Pretty easy answer 0)Steady demand and RELIANCE 1)Lack of potential supply 3)Geo-Political factors in supply zones 4)Dollar ain't worth jack 5)SPECULATION #5 clearly takes the cake and will continue to tip the scales until our govt takes an aggressive stance on alternative energies. If our govt was to actually put major money into new alternative energies this speculation factor would disappear and the price of oil would plummet. But currently our govt is happy to subsidize and encourage our oil reliance and generally non-green energies and use of energies. Instead of bringing the oil execs into congress twice a year to chastise them but not actually accomplish anything, if congress would take some simple actions such as jacking up the mpg standard and create some massive tax deductions for production of and use of alternative energies we would instantly see oil tank. We need to stop doing things like giving the coal based energy plants tax breaks and subsidies and start offering money up for innovation. Innovation is what makes this country stand on top but we currently have a strangle hold on it because of short sighted greedy politicians.
Also news that they have documentation that Chavez is supporting the FARC and their terrorism in Columbia. This has the potential for a US embargo on Venezuela as Columbia is our buddy and Hugo is not. If we put an embargo on Venezuela, well hot dog oil will fly.
And then just then maybe the market might see we don't need their oil. What would the market do if suddenly inventories were not falling despite Venezuela shipping nothing? That would mark a likely top.