Discussion in 'Trading' started by longsword, Sep 12, 2006.
Can someone please try and explain?
The oil money outflow has to be deployed somewhere.
We can also reason by contradiction. What are the Bear elements? They are:
Oil - Plummeting
Middle East Conflict - Quiet
Tech Sector - No alarming
Crowd Psychology - This is the most important of all above. Why they are upbeat? I don't know.
Well lets see.....
Real estate has deflated and is tame without a bottom falling out.
Wages are finally starting to reflect some growth with the release of latest numbers.
Commodities are crashing. Cost of materials going down just as Bernanke stated in his thesis last meeting. Just imagine the fuel surcharges coming down from all those trucking companies now and profits increasing.
BBY has good numbers and this X-mas is probably not going to be the start of Armageddon.
No substantial hurricane damage to U.S. soil this year.
Organized terror attempt thwarted through international cooperation/counter-measures.
5 year 9-11 anniversary behind, uneventful.
Did I mention oil is cratering?
Back to school season was acceptable, not dismal.
Goldman Sachs knocks cover off ball yet once again.
China is still growing.
Did I mention China is still growing and commodities are down?
Lost count of how many quarters in a row of double digit earnings growth.
Fed most likely going to stay on pause through 9-20 meeting (although it's debatable if its next move is tighter or looser).
Iran is being proved a paper tiger.
Israel and Lebanon situation is "stable".
Oil storage numbers above 5 year trend, plenty of black goo around.
Did I mention oil prices are cratering?
Others may feel free to add anything else.
The reason doesn't matter, as long as you make money.
There are always thousands of reasons to buy or to sell.
I was just rereading parts of Mark Fisher's book last night and one of the things he says is: if you cant figure out why the market is going up, stay long.
And if you have figured it out?
this is a pretty typical options expiry week.
haven't you noticed all the IB bulletins of exchanges being down...same ol bs expiry week.
big boys cleaning house so they can place their new orders...
a good example was gm this morning, the bid ask on IB was over 50cents for the first 10minutes once the market opened.
I pulled up arca, island and brut as the smart spread was 30-50cents while the others were approx a dollar on the bid/ask...
this is so shorts can't get out and the market is pegged to go long...you will also notice this week a larger amount of block trades are done premarket and after close that will flow through your existing working orders...especially on the nyse.
what is scary that 95percent of the stocks today were long....large percentages...I personally have about 100 stocks that I watch....not trade...in all sectors for sentiment reasons...usually when you have a day like today...all long...lately we get the opposite the next...it is total bs when all are up..standard usa market manipulation....
here we suggest our traders take their profits on the first cycle as usually they can exit their trade and re-enter at the same or a better price.
you may also notice stocks continually making new highs everyday like rmbs,nvda...some 52wk highs every day or too like aeos, gm...
but no matter what we usually find this week the best and most profitable.
Thanks nassau, thats some great information. So the market could also be equally directional, bullish, bearish on an expirations week? What do you mean by first cycle?
Things are too bullish for me.
My contrarian brain is telling me we're in for a rocky fall.