Discussion in 'Options' started by 1a2b3cppp, Sep 2, 2018.
10% profit, 15% loss, on margin.
Who conducted the study? What is the sample size? How did they exit? Stop loss, on market bid? There are a lot of nuances. Aot of research is meant to push a certain narrative... That why research and backtesting is so key (especially your own stats)
Perhaps you missed the 11 winners 1 loser part. And, yes I know you can't verify my experience. Properly managed means following your plan. My plan with IC's is 10% profit and 15% max loss targets (less than 15% loss is OK). Rolling the wing when the deltas of the short strike double.
Also losing 15% 22 ‰of the time .. Is not that great. Especially since I bet your losses are more than 15,% per trade. Real life is probably closer to 20... Mm also like to gun for stops, so that's an issue too
An ATM put or call is 50D absent rates. WTF are you sourcing a one lot 30D IC? You cannot approach 30D by using an ATM leg. You cannot structure a one lot 30D IC that's ***OTM***. Sure you can go deep ITM on one of the verticals, but that's hardly 70% prob, now is it?
Perhaps you missed my flawless math that states 11/12 times you win all the time.
C'mon. I'm with Elite Traders!!!! A 30 delta spread has a +70% chance of finishing OTM. Managing winners improves those odds. Are you going to tell me that you can't beat that holding to expiration?
Using the 30D C/P as the short outside combo for Sep21:
Sep21 2850/2870/2935/2955 is 7.90 last; risking 12.10. 5D at inception. 30? Please show us a IC where you can structure it OTM and approach 30 deltas at inception. You cannot.
I will gives you monies if you can show us a one-lot 30-delta OTM iron condors right now...
1. You're off your meds. 2. What about the IC mentioned above! it's only a 5D so it's got a 95% probability, right? 3. WTF are you finding 30-delta iron condors?!
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