context and confirmation........ I guess this is part of the reason that so many traders get Elliott work completely wrong.........they start their count and then stray from the basic tenets..........most often they usually just get the rules wrong or invent stuff that doesnt belong.........so confirmation is also about context........a five in one direction is not immediately with the trend until alternatives are eliminated........wave structures are also relative which the inexperienced or impatient trader does not see.........a 5 in one direction can also be pro-regressive........it is how the trader decides to interpret the context and the relative behavour against the trader own desire of price direction........ uh-oh.......had too much coffee J
oh, another one I like......... "Elliott is based on Fibonacci"...........HAHA!.......that one always cracks me up.......... ......the first implication is that; without one I can't have the other........bollux......fibonacci was later discovered (uncovered) to work well for targeting..........this is best combined with channeling in both impulsives and corretives........helps to target for relative structures (A=C for example).......again that is for finding probabilities but I'd never use it ina stand-alone way.......just doesn't work........this is also what makes Fibonacci based black-boxes make traders lose......... they're indiscriminantly placed.........jeez that stuff gives me the willies........Elliott structures are NOT restricted or confined by fibonacci.........often the same structures are defined soley by geometric measures........ as Elliotts structures, so OFTEN, adhere or terminate on Fibonacci extremes, then, hoards have taken to assuming that this should set a standard, which, of course, the smart money learnt a long time ago to fade.........I watch this unfurl regularly in FX........"oh, look, oh look.......a fib number on the EUR/US at 1.618.......yeahaa.....I'll go for that" .........yep and that's exactly where the big fish will wait for you trip your trade and then trip you stop and then they'll bail at the 178.6 mark ..........classic........you see........it's not the discipline its the person who employs it.........how many people can recite ALL of the Fibonacci % outloud without having to think ? .......very few.......and therein lays a large weakness........not in the numbers.......the weakness is in the traders propensity to rush to the easiest and laziest conclusions......... nice day to be long......... cin cin
Here is a link to a thread that covers it in detail. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=80582&highlight=Odd+Tick
The charting you use, the time increment or increments you use, the indicators you use and how you view the markets do not show you confirmations in the market. I view the markets in a different manner and I see them in real time. Everybody has a little different take on how they think the markets operate. Everybody has their own or wishes they had an edge. Don't tell someone their "edge" is non existent until you completely understand what their "edge" consists of.
Was that a universal, think outloud, post ? What is advancing, in this discussion, maybe, is to delve into what is a confirmation rather than what is not........ I am discussing Elliott and did not mention anybody or any edge especially.............your edge has nothing to do with me .........my question has always been, as far as confirmative waves are concerned, is; are we seeing a confirmation of our thinking and/or open position, or, are we witnessing a diminishing of any alternative.........one is an aggressive stance and the other is a protective stance.......both may achieve the same end result however both call for two different biases as far as capital protection is concerned........and yes, I may only speak for my own point of view just like the other billions ............. specifically, only one thing gives me confirmation: Price. be well J
Michael Jai White from Thick as Thieves while transactions abound and therefor human interaction abounds we cannot say, with exclusion, of all, or any other probabilities, that we see a confirmative wave pattern....... life and price comes at us at a variable speed, constantly, we are left with a consistency of likelihood of price movement.......even if it were true that a wave structure was truly a confirmative wave then it would be momentary, fleeting, until it changes and therefor rendered useless to me........whether a trader has invented a wave idea that is confirmative ......it is not as Elliott uncovered, in my opinion, however, he does clearly show from so long ago, that, because all degrees are operating at all times, what dominates must be defined but cannot be set in stone until the price is printed and becomes hindsight.......this print (still) in my opinion is, thus, a history of (future) probability and nothing more.......outside of Elliott work there maybe an invented "edge" but it remains adjunct to the origin, both in concept and in practice..........this is my position........may only define my edge not anyone elses..........therefor, I propose; as we cannot trade hindsight prices we look to them to assist in dismissing what is most likely to NOT (now) occurr...... I have heard that 10 different Elliotticians, given a chart, may come to 10 different conclusions.......so what! I only care about my own opinion, about my account, my own well being.......this is the beauty of Elliott as his work embraces all stances and we are unable to be seperated from the market becasue we must all eventually agree on one simple thing; price............he asks us to see and think clearly with distinction.......however, this thread is about Elliotts work he assists us to define immediate price action, present and operating price action.......the body of work is enough without dillusion.........I have seen some very good expansion and extrapolation on his work and have witnessed some horrendous employ and publishing that makes me reach for the puke-bag........I only ask for a level playing field as so many are quick to say that "Elliott doesn't work" again, not that I care much........but the market brings enough challenges without having all the womble stuff outside which is also the reason that the good Elliott traders rarely speak out.........I surely would like to speak to traders who can articulate what stops others from "seeing" wave structures but the truth is that the same answers recur over and over which is the exact driving force that is seen via Elliott.......2 years ago I spoke to an options educator and he confided in me that almost 95% of his students would fail even though he also had the 5 % of students with exactly the same knowledge who would go onto become wealthy........ Think of Elliotts work like this; an umbrella works great in the rain unless you hold it upside down.........most poeple come to his work on paper and then attempt to apply to the markets without dealing with their own propensity first....."but it can't be me"........ ........bingo......like circular breathing....... J
Nitro, very interesting post! how does the complex plane relate to the market. I mean one deals with imaginary numbers and the other with real numbers. Phi is derived from the square root function you mentioned, but it's existence is confined to real numbers isn't it?
I do not mean that phi and EW lead directly to the complex plane. But Dynamical Systems and Chaos do (although note that the fifth roots of unity, which are related to phi, lye in the Complex Plane.) In Classical Mechanics, the phase space of an observable (eigenvalues) is a real number. In Quantum Mechanics, the phase space of an observable is on the complex plane. This is why Hilbert Spaces are useful. It is worth understanding what this gives you... There is an interesting connection between phi and dynamical systems (phi is the most "irrational" number). The road to that though is not trivial. Non of this stuff is... nitro
Here is an elementary paper by a great mathematician. It won't make you rich, but if you have a mathematical bent, it will fascinate you. There is nothing more beautiful in heaven or earth. http://www.fen.bilkent.edu.tr/~franz/ant06/algn.pdf Phi is one of the numbers studied. nitro