WHY is Elliott Wave supposed to work?

Wishing won't help you in the market either. Combined with a lack of insight you might be in real trouble. All the luck I can wish you probably can't help you either.

 

Yes, I have Mandelbrot's book. Very interesting and insightful. I think he hasn't received the acclaim he deserves because the whole industry of finance was built on the nonsense promulgated by his doctoral student, Eugene Fama (the academic bully who started the whole scam called passive investing/index tracking). But I believe in 20-50 years, Mandelbrot will be recognized for the truth bearer that he is. That's the way history works I'm afraid. We progress from one dead idea to another.

Note that Mandelbrot does not have a causal model for fractal behavior. It just seems that the power law distribution is the best descriptive of many facets of nature, and hence by induction one can conclude that markets could fit in because they are driven by human fear and greed, which are as natural as the tides of oceans, earthquakes etc.

 

Hey Potty Mouth,

Your little snippets are old and boring. Nononsense did it a lot better than you, and he had the smarts to stop posting on ET. Follow your master and you just might preserve whatever little sanity you have left, if any.

Hypocrite.

 

So you've changed your signature?

And become increasingly irrational in your insults. Not only disrespectful to ET and its members in general but to specific members as well. You should be ashamed of yourself - it was bad enough when you didn't spell your master's name correctly.

I would wish you good luck but I now know it can't help you.

 

What's the matter? Running out of lines to come up with? LOL

Obviously your mama didn't teach you any self respect, or you would truly be ashamed of swearing at people in other treads and then sanctimoniously judging others as potty mouths etc.

Pretentious. Arrogant. Hypocrite. Potty Mouth = Kiwi Trader

 

You're starting to look pretty sad. Any worse and I'll start feeling sorry for you.

Best of luck.

 

james bond 3rd:
“It is understood by scientists now that price movements follow a statistical distribution called
“truncated Levy flight”.”
isn't it that ‘truncated Levy flight’ distribution is able to be applied to price movement . . .
and
“. . . because he has to think in EW language, he believes it’s EW that’s working.”
just like the ‘truncated Levy flight’ thinker.

When one examines the use of/occurrence of the fibo ratio/numbers it’s usually a perfect form — phyllotaxis, the fibo/golden section balance in some paintings and presumably beautiful melody.

Financial trading instruments are continually evolving organisms that unlike the gzillion generations of perfectly formed fibo daisies, vary instrument to instrument, within their group and group to group.

We know with the EURUSD a positive US Farm Payroll report will send the pair lower, and that the pair may travel sideways for hours sometimes days prior to the report’s release. While the daisy has achieved stability in its form, the form of financial instruments have no stability; the numerous ‘morphogenics of financial instruments’ are the result of human activity, behaviour.

There’s only a couple of ‘perfect form’ instruments I know of, gold and crude oil
both ‘conform’ to EW/fibo ratio/numbers, why ?
what’s different about their ‘genetics’ compared with the EURUSD or DJIA or MSFT ?

 

I have no idea what you're talking about.

EW theory claims to be able to predict. Truncated Levy flight is not a prediction. It's a statistical distribution. That the price movements obey certain statistical distribution is an observation. The difference between the two is like the difference between astrology and astronomy.

Do you have the statistical analysis that shows gold and crude both conform to EW/fibo? I don't believe anyone has shown it.

 

james bond 3rd: my error —

there should have been a break between my comments to your post and what I wrote next

I'll first leave it to you if you want to re-reply


“It is understood by scientists now that price movements follow a statistical distribution called
“truncated Levy flight”.”
isn't it that ‘truncated Levy flight’ distribution is able to be applied to price movement . . .
and
“. . . because he has to think in EW language, he believes it’s EW that’s working.”
just like the ‘truncated Levy flight’ thinker.


`````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````````

When one examines the use of/occurrence of the fibo ratio/numbers it’s usually a perfect form — phyllotaxis, the fibo/golden section balance in some paintings and presumably beautiful melody.

Financial trading instruments are continually evolving organisms that unlike the gzillion generations of perfectly formed fibo daisies, vary instrument to instrument, within their group and group to group.

We know with the EURUSD a positive US Farm Payroll report will send the pair lower, and that the pair may travel sideways for hours sometimes days prior to the report’s release. While the daisy has achieved stability in its form, the form of financial instruments have no stability; the numerous ‘morphogenics of financial instruments’ are the result of human activity, behaviour.

There’s only a couple of ‘perfect form’ instruments I know of, gold and crude oil
both ‘conform’ to EW/fibo ratio/numbers, why ?
what’s different about their ‘genetics’ compared with the EURUSD or DJIA or MSFT ?

 

I think that this is a really interesting question to ask.

While I am not an EW expert, why EW should be at least a primitive model of market movement makes perfect sense when EW is is looked at from its mathematical foundation of Golden Ratios and Fibonacci numbers.

I will only hint at what you need to know to dig deepr. I suggest you google the rest and follow links. It is actually fun math. Here are some things to google:

1) fifth roots of unity (will lead you to Galois Theory if you persevere long enough)

2) phi^2 = phi + 1

3) cos(2pi / 5) = 1/2 (phi -1)

phi (pronounced fee) is the Golden Ratio, or (1 + sqrt(5)) / 2

http://mathworld.wolfram.com/GoldenRatio.html

Once the domain of your function is a circle (which is what the three statements above hint at), the entire mathematical theory of Harmonic Analysis is in force. In other words, periodic (or quasi-periodic) movement.

You then realize that taking square roots cannot be generalized to a continous function over the whole complex plane, and how that generelization takes you to a Reimann Surface and Complex Analysis and Topology. Complex Analysis is amongst the most beautiful math in existance. It is amazing how much mathematics has been invented to deal with taking square roots in a general setting. Galois Theory, probably the most beautiful math there is, was also motivated by the need to take square roots in certain [finite] fields. (the word field is used in the mathematical sense)

All of it applies to understanding the dynamics of market movement.

nitro