"Foreword to Mark Fisher's Book Paul Tudor Jones Chairman and CEO of Tudor Investment Corp. My first face-to-face encounter with Mark Fisher occurred in the silver pit in the early '80s on the COMEX in New York where he often resided. An occasional visitor to that club of gentlemanly behavior, I was given an order to buy 200 contracts of silver on the close by one of my upstairs friends. The treatment I received was something akin to that of a piece of red meat thrown into a cage of half-starved lions. I remember being pounced upon by four or five "locals," not the least of which was this short blur of energy shouting, cajoling, and talking to me so fast that I could only recognize the badge FSH (or "Fish" as he was known to thousands on the trading floor). As he always does, he somehow innately knew exactly how many I had to buy and waited until I had bought all but 20 or 30 contracts before selling me the top tick of the close. There was no one better and there never will be anyone as good as Mark Fisher when it comes to smelling an order that a pit broker has in his hand. It will not take you long in reading this book to realize that Mark Fisher is being powered by some type of energy source that is not endemic to the normal human condition. And to say that he is a control freak is an understatement. But to anyone who wants to learn how to trade and takes the time to read this book, there is zero doubt that Fish's messianic willingness to share with the public the successful system he has developed is an opportunity to be exploited. He details in very methodical and systematic fashion a unique way of approaching markets and creating fantastic reward/risk opportunities over virtually any timeframe, from day trading to long-term positioning. Creating these favorable reward/risk trades is the genesis of all profitable trading and his plan is one that has been successfully implemented by hundreds. I know this first hand as many of the traders who worked for me when I had a floor operation used his system successfully to trade profitably. For anyone starting out in the trading business, Mark's trading experiences and ACD system provide an invaluable blueprint for trading success. Central to his trading methodology is his incredible discipline, which has been his hallmark as a trader over the years. As he stresses throughout the book, the most important factor for traders to identify is the point at which to get out if they are wrong. If traders learn nothing else from this book, the lesson of knowing where to get out is one that will spare them much physical, emotional, and financial pain. While presenting a "logical" method to approach the market, Mark also shares with the reader, colorful and entertaining stories of the breakdowns and breakthroughs of several traders who he has worked with over the years. In addition, Chapter 7 entitled "The ACD Version of Ripley's Believe It or Not!" presents incredible, real stories from the trading pit. Experienced traders will see themselves and their flaws in these stories, while novices can learn from these professional traders' mistakes. When I meet someone who is interested in learning the trading business, I always refer them to what I consider to be the four Bibles of the business: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre, the fictionalized biography of the fabled Jesse Livermore; Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by McGee and Edwards, which was written in the first half of the 20th century and whose tenets still hold today; The Elliott Wave Theorist by Robert Prechter and A. J. Frost, a classic; and finally Market Wizards by Jack Schwager, which is a compilation of interviews with great traders. Reminiscences is a wonderfully entertaining read that mostly illuminates the emotional highs and lows that go with trading and tape reading. Technical Analysis of Stock Trends and The Elliott Wave Theorist both give very specific and systematic ways to approach developing great reward/risk ratios for entering into a business contract with the marketplace, which is what every trade should be if properly and thoughtfully executed. Finally, Market Wizards is a great read if but to learn one lesson over and over again from virtually every single trader who tells his tale in the book - that is, to make great sums of money you first have to learn how to lose much smaller sums of it when you're wrong. I mention the other four books because, after having read The Logical Trader, I am going to add Fish's book to my list of must reads for the beginning trader. Having seen hundreds of traders matriculate through the doors here at the Tudor Group, I am consistently amazed that virtually all of them have different ways of approaching and reaping profits from the marketplace. There really are dozens if not hundreds of ways of making money. But ultimately, though all of them may have different techniques, they share the common trait of somehow creating very favorable reward/risk ratios for trading despite their myriad approaches. That is also what The Logical Trader accomplishes in a straightforward fashion. It gives you a well-developed, systematic way to competently apply leverage in the marketplace and garner great performance from it. How could we not pay close attention with great gratitude to the vision that one of the most successful floor traders of all time has decided to share with us? Over the past 20 years that I have known him, Fish has been a giving and generous person in every aspect of his life. This is but another in a long line of incredibly valuable gifts he has given to people that he both knows and doesn't know. Thank you, Mark."
i understand your points and they are well taken at first glance. You are also correct that it is not testable in the traditional sense. however, no one other than neely has ever attempted to objectively define the wave. may i kindly suggest that you read the book, then give me your thoughts on neely's objectivity and research. in addition, in respect to mr.artie ( god rest his soul), may i suggest to contact peter borish ,ex tudor investments head of research, with your EW assertations. regards, surf
Praying won't make your itinerant life any more pleasant, MS. And if you have such an inside track on Tudor's specific methodology, by all means share it with us. Ohhh Wipe Out!....Ventures playing in the background.
You are correct! I've been following him for more than a year. Tony is the Master of EW, bar none. Not only has he quantified the entire history of the US stock market in EW terms. Which he did over 20 years ago. But he also applies EW to individual stocks, which nobody thought could ever be done. My first read everyday.
The base of EW is the Fibonacci ratio and number series; there are many examples of the fibo ratio and/or number series in plants, computer code, musical and painting composition, polls and voting results, and 'EW formations' can be seen on various electronic display monitors. EW reflects the base, human trading psychology â behaviour, innumerable B/S decisions made by 'that' total market often resuting in what appears on a Price chart as an EW PriceTime Movement. The fibo ratio/number series can be said to be a 'natural phenomenum' since it appears so variously, however no one has yet explained why the ratio exists. Some financially traded instruments have a high EW correlation, others do not; note the difference between the current formations of the DJIA, SP500, Nasdaq; distribution.
What would be interesting is to see someone start a paper trading journal on ET based of EW theory and see if they're profitable. cm69
It doesn't. Which is why I started the thread. Amazingly, this seems to have whizzed by a number of posters. Saying that EW works because it represents mass psychology or because it's based on fib ratios means nothing to me. I was hoping for more original insight but I'm prob asking for too much on ET. The wave patterns appear because they exist, say the fans. They just ARE. Like gravity, it just IS. Don't try to explain why gravity is 9.81 m/s sqrd. It just IS. Right? I really enjoy the parallels between elliott waves and music. For ex, the octave is composed of 8 notes, etc. see http://goldennumber.net/music.htm I guess no one will ask, why do we have all those fib numbers in music. That's just the way it is. The only way I can reconcile all these facts and their existence is by simply assuming that a higher intelligence 'programmed' or designed things in a repeatable way, using the same basic programs or simple rules.
Its more of the same junk that scammers to try to sell you. Anything that allows you to look back in time and magically redefine shit so it works is a joke. Its sorta like saying, everytime you see 3 green candles, go long and it will make you money. When you show the guy 3 green daily candles that failed, he simply points to 3 30 min candles that worked that day and says SEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE. Dont waste your time.