I've seen you and copperovergold express the "its already priced in" argument regarding inflation. However, my counter to that is you CANNOT price in high/chronic long-term inflation. Its impossible. Because the money doesn't exist today to bid the assets up to a value they can be bid up to in the future when the money supply is [300%] higher due to the government continuing to print money at a [25%] annual clip. Prices just will keep going up and up and up and up. Fed will raise raise rates and engaged in QE tapering? Haven't they said they are not going to do any of that through at least the remainder of 2021? And even after that, won't they still have to buy U.S. Treasuries to fuel the large, and getting larger, U.S. deficits? Money supply will likely continue to increase at a 23%+ annual clip (probably only growing) for a looooong time IMO. I don't see how that can't lead to very high if not chronic inflation.
Call me crazy, but look at the dollar index (DXY). See that nice clean 10% reduction on the dollar over the past couple years? Part of me wonders if the didn't hijack COVID to weaken the dollar by 10% It's all part of the grand plan, my friend. The next story will be an interest rate hike. (Image credit: Marketwatch)
Warren Buffet is reporting seeing significant inflation - in so many warns that this is not just 'transitory'. Some large fund mgrs warn the Fed they are playing with fire, & urge them to raise interest now before we go over a cliff.
Agree. Unfortunately both are bad for the citizenry. Just how is it that (1) everything you buy costs more and (2) the money you have will buy less... is good? Taken to the extreme, which historically is what happens, almost every "common citizen" becomes effectively bankrupt. Where's the good in that?
Sorry could not read the article since I don’t have membership. Could anyone please post it here? So far, I don’t see it mentioned Black Rock.
Seems logical but I don't know that we can count on that this time. If the Fed tightens rates and credit, the markets and the economy will come crashing down. It's likely they won't do that because they don't want to be the "scapegoat" for the crash. So then.... if they can't find a "jumping off point".... they're left with running the inflation and money-print into oblivion and bankruptcy for nearly everybody. Which, BTW, has been the historical choice. Lots of examples, sadly.
How about you define what you mean by high inflation? Do you mean an average of 2-3% over the next 10 years? Something greater? And what do you think is going to drive inflation? Shocks to supply or to demand?
And we thought foreign buyers are the problem. LOL Oh well once they start dumping, there wouldn't be any inflation anymore. If they cornered the market too much, they won't have anybody to sell their inventory to and what would follow is a huge real estate market crash very much the same like the pump & dump schemes with penny stocks.