I don't know anything about ES, but if the 25 EMA doesn't provide strong S/R intraday, find out which one does.
Well I dont buy your statistical analysis on it too much since your approach was biased going into it. Also, as you know from trading, %prob of success is meaningless depending on risk/reward and trademanagement. If you have 20% rate of success but make 50 points on wins and lose 10 on losses you still are making money even though I dont like that rate of success. if you are simply 50-50 but have good stop losses and let the winners go to logical target then you still are well ahead. It all comes down to risk management more than anything.
It all comes down to risk management more than anything.--------->>>> Now this is where we agree. How you manage risk and how you manage your account are most important.
Patterns really come down to reading price action then simply looking for a geometrical shape you recognize. Like all technical indicator tools they just are a guide to read price action so you cannot follow them blindly as others have point out. If it fails you bail quickly and cut your losses. The more you studdy patterns the more you are trained to study price action on retracements and consolidations which is all patterns represent.
You really shuda have shorted at around 10:50 on the ma cross and rode the trend down to the cross up around an hour or so later and then left for the day....
Actually, the 5ma on the 5min chart per attached works pretty well for S/R. On that downtrend the MA served as solid resistance and now on the way up it's fairly good support. But, when you go into one of those consolidation areas like from 9am to 11am it lets you down. It doesn't work often enough for me to use it, although I'm sure someone would disagree with that. If find it useful as a supporting indicator of price action but not a primary one. Everything comes down to perspective I suppose. Just use what works.
Just asking. Then why trade when volume is so low, confirming that price is random or chaotic rather than trending?
If you're winning 25% of the time with a strategy, start doing the opposite and winning 75% of the time.
One of the things I look for is large deviations from the MA's, so they become useful in that sense. I actually look for noise to trade off of, while other traders want to get rid of noise. The lack of liquidity this week hasn't made that much of a difference, surprisingly.
I wasn't referring to the cumulative daily volume, but to the volume per minute at the time of the trade.