Why I Shorted MRK: The Math $1Trillion

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by fxpeculator, Aug 19, 2005.

Is Merck a short Here?

  1. Yes, this is a short, clear as day, this is a potent downside catalyst

    23 vote(s)
    39.0%
  2. Yes, shorted also, was a great trade

    6 vote(s)
    10.2%
  3. Not ashort, Dividend is worth the risk, I say Long

    8 vote(s)
    13.6%
  4. This is not a short, Normal Overreaction today

    7 vote(s)
    11.9%
  5. I am staying on the sidelines, no bias long or short

    9 vote(s)
    15.3%
  6. I would not be Greedy and take profits Monday morning

    6 vote(s)
    10.2%
  1. Sam123

    Sam123 Guest

    Well, I think Western society is doing fine. Not perfect, but fine. We would be fighting WW5 today if there were no nuclear weapons. Smog from industry was a lot worse 30-40 years ago than it is today. Yes, there are cities with bad air because of new growth in environments and climates that trap the smog, but it’s up to the people to organize and persuade their government to produce environmental incentives and regulation. It worked in a lot of states here in America, and the air is a hell of a lot cleaner all year long. If were you, I would move. I couldn’t live in a smoggy area.

    I am not condoning companies like Enron, and corporate corruption in general. But I think there are better ways to solve this problem than big government and the litigation industry. In the case of Vioxx, I wonder if the FDA and other governmental regulatory bodies in other countries were doing their job? If you think that companies have “bought out” the government agencies, then I would spend the time and money and effort to make it a hot issue to the public and shake it up. It costs less for society to do this.

    The government doesn’t get bigger, and money is not lost to litigation. Instead, you have more people in government looking out for YOU, rather than the corporation.

    As for whether or not this will destroy MRK, I don’t know. The market is global, and there are a lot of countries that don’t sue. Look what happened to Philip Morris.


     
    #41     Aug 21, 2005
  2. It may get a bounce from momo boys. Marsh and AIG did for example.

    Next trial up is in NJ next month - the company's home state. If they get popped in the first few, it's all over. The first one was big though. This is discussed in The King of Torts where the King signed up a gazillion victims and then blew out when some wild man lost the first trial. Grisham is the real deal on this stuff.

    Looks like a viable strategy is to shove the advertising up MRK's rear. Contrast that with this stunning article from Wired Magazine a while back on the heroin treatment no one has ever heard of.

    http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/13.04/bupe.html?pg=2&topic=bupe&topic_set=

    The story images are worth clicking on. It is an advertising campaign created not by the drug manufacturer but by The City of New York at its expense. :eek:

    Good thing for MRK this drug kills fast and thus doesn't run up big treatment costs otherwise the states would really get after them for medicaid/medicare reimbursement like with the tobacco.

    Geo.
     
    #42     Aug 21, 2005
  3. DUMB money BUYING, SMART MONEY DUMPING THIS AM!
     
    #43     Aug 22, 2005
  4. If in my quest to make profits I knowingly sold a dangerous product that killed people and made them sick I would get sued. Also if I lied and covered up the facts to protect myself and my profits that would only compound my legal problems and I would get punished even more with larger law suits and even jail time. And the amount of the suit would put me out of business. And the same would happen to any other individual or small company. Why should Merck receive protection you or I can't get? If people died because of their lies and cover ups then let them pay. If they go out of business then so be it, if they get punished hard enough maybe the other pharms wil take notice and work to put out safer products.
     
    #44     Aug 22, 2005
  5. Your logic is twisted. You cannot compare Enron and DAL to Merck. Merck does not cook their numbers (they dont need to) and is extremely profitable even after Vioxx being pulled. Merck's escapades are very similiar to Altria's, remember all the panic selling due to the public news and what happens afterwards.

    One measly verdict that is capped anyway and will probably be overturned in the appeals. Also, most of the cases are going to grand juries which are sooo squeaky clean.

    Institutions are dumping because THEY HAVE TO just like they dump on I-Bank downgrades and buy at upgrades.

    You either believe in the power of big corporates over this country or you believe some fairy tale. Big pharmas, aka the legit drug dealers have more control now than they did 10 years ago.

    BTW, the risks of these lawsuits are priced into the drugs when they are sold. Same went for asbestos & tobacco. This is taught in college risk management & insurance courses.
     
    #45     Aug 22, 2005

  6. Yeah, can't compare this mutt stock MRK to DAL and Enron yet, it has to drop further down to get to their level of downside.
     
    #46     Aug 22, 2005
  7. Dude get your facts straight. At least find comparable drug companies that have been bashed down by lawsuits instead of finding irrelevant cases. Airlines have barely ever been profitable while pharmas have made a killing from the get go. Enron is a completely different case of corruption, fraud and conspiracy. What Merck did is the same crap that PFE, AZN & GSK do with every drug.
     
    #47     Aug 22, 2005

  8. I am a winner, don't have time to debate these senseless arguments with some hack. The comparison was based on company implosion, there are over 50,000 cases internationally in the pipeline and evidence against this mutt stock is solid, look up the facts online, read the Merck emails, read what the FDA said about Vioxx, read about what witnesses will be called. If you like MRK long, go long. Don't get angry at me , I am just a trader coining on the short side. Dispute any of the facts I have presented vs your drivel.
     
    #48     Aug 22, 2005
  9. You're a winner? Yeah in your head, maybe. Im not the one getting angry and posting insults. Get out of the fairy tale world and you might see the real facts. I knew about Lipitor & Vioxx's problems before you even knew that these drugs were about to be released. Same shit, different year. Every so often the big boys get slapped on the wrist and joe shmoe panics and dumps the stock. I bet the braniacs that shorted MO in the 30s must still consider themselves the big winners.

    Maybe in the future the masses will get rid of their addiction to pharmaceuticals but it will take decades. For now the drug dealer is just laying low till the heat blows over.
     
    #49     Aug 22, 2005
  10. ElCubano

    ElCubano

    Themirosal in vaccines will be the one to bring this giant down....peace
     
    #50     Aug 22, 2005