Shagi ..... Why didn't you comment on this May 29th thread if you knew silver was going to crash? Those $0.25 puts are now $37.00. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=219693 Instead you come out of the woodwork after the big move and rationalize it in hindsight, as if it could have been expected.
Of-course it was expected did you think it was going to $60? There really is no hindsight - I'm just not lazy about my work and I comment when I wish to do so.
By the way... a 2.5 sigma daily move happens approximately twice a year. That's what happened with silver, and is not a black swan. A 5 sigma daily move (assuming normal distribution) happens approximately once every 10,000 years... now that's a black swan.
SLV 28 by tuesday. Kinda hang there for a couple months. Should have bought those May 46 puts, last week. Stay away. EDIT: Eventually, we're headed back down to 18. Aug 09 to present is nothing but a lie, folks.
Look at ZSL, up nearly 100% in only a week!!!! Thats pretty crazy, now seeing Silver drop as hard as it did, it can rally really hard as well, however this time $50 might be out of question, if it were to get to $50 or even $60 or $70 how long would it be able to hold those levels? Again this was a given that a drop like this was going to occur, however I did not expect such a drop so quick, I thought the 40% correction like I predicted on April 29th would have come a lot later and would have taken a lot longer, weeks for that matter not 4 days! Im thinking of buying some AGQ when silver gets down to around $30-$32!
Another huge reason for the drop in Silver was the larger margin requirements, that being the case its going to be a lot harder to drive the price back to $50+
This was not meant to be a pissing match between longs and shorts. I just wanted to catalog my entry and exit. It was also meant to teach the newbs on the consistency of the 3 day margin phenomenon that I have seen so many times. Today still could end up RED but over the weekend and Monday is the really good bounce day imo.