Too costly to short stocks, just more cost effective to sell index futures and hedge if timing was wrong. I only have 5% of stocks bought from 2009, dividends percentage wise wasn't making sense and hedging stocks with all recent sell signals to make pennies on dividends didn't add up. Still have oil company stocks with good dividends, although have started trying to find crude oil highs.
Shorting is difficult cause the timing needs to be very precise. Reward is also limited cause at most you can only get close to doubling in a trade but you risk losing it all if it doubles.
Are these the same studies that show how you can regain 20/20 sight with one simple trick? You know...a harvard professor got fired because he revealed the secret and banks hate it
Trend Following In Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Backtest, PHILOSOPHICAL ECONOMICS, January 2, 2016 and Trend Following in Focus, QR Capital Management, LLC, September 2018
Not significant at all. The only way to properly evaluate a trend following strategy is to measure it against autocorrelation in the specific assets. -> Asset autocorrelated -> You don't make money -> strategy sucks -> Asset not autocorrelated -> you don't make money - > market selection sucks Go ahead and find an asset that has a steady downtrend and is autocorrelated. Test a short only approach and you will find that you will make a profit. Your assumptions are way to simplistic since you only cover a specific scenario
%% WHEN something is true 80% or 93%+/ of the time , simply means many should avoid it but not all may avoid it......... Actually some inverse ETFs have paid dividends,[for sure] like TZA , in the past. And there are some key differences between short profit + inverse ETF profit. BUT like IBD founder notes \never buy something for the dividend. Amen/LOL+ true. [2] So polar bear trends[rubber band moves] may not be as profitable, so few funds do well, but some do. [3]I almost never trade inverse, same size[distraction] ,as longs\so few commercial funds do well shorting. [4] Repeating pattern, as IBD noted \NEVER buy for dividend/LOL. NOT sure any inverse ETF even pays a dividend now?