Why I Don't Believe in TA

r-in · Feb 14, 2013

Nothing gambling about it. I could drive to a casino everyday, but I don't. I understand what I do and I make money from it. I go to my churches casino night and spend 3 hours on the tables and have more chips, but that does nothing for me. I win a prize when my name is drawn, whoopee. I enjoy trading and I guess I have learned various aspects of the job. I think those that suceed in a profession find they enjoy what they do, and that is where I am at.
I beat my head everyday trying to convey that to my kids in that I see what they enjoy, but they move in directions that sound good as opposed to what they would enjoy in life. I don't care if they make millions, I just want them to be happy. I trade because it makes me happy. I get that some days are losers, and if I hit the point where losers are ahead of winners, then I need to move on.

r-in · Feb 14, 2013

Quote from HurricaneUS:

that doesn't sound like TA based trading..sounds more like gambling...but hey if it works for you then by all means.....
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How long does gambling typically last? My experience is not very long. So please explain.

r-in · Feb 14, 2013

Actually too funny, Iam watching the curent "weatheman" and his forecast. I can document how wrong the are, but they are scientists, so they know beter than the rest of us. Wel,l no as a pilot I contradict the phony forecast daily, and am at a better than 50% forecast. Glad they get paid paid.

r-in · Feb 14, 2013

Sorry for the lack of obvious English issues, but I think you get it, and ry to cry about my lack of grammar,and I think you make the point more vaild

HurricaneUS · Feb 14, 2013

Quote from r-in:

I'll extend my thoughts, and probably will be chastised for invading a thread. I mainly trade futures intra day, and equities on a da, swing or even long term basis. I have CNBC on as they attract many successful, and largely succesful at one time traders. I listen when they are on, and look into what I hear. I llok for discrepancies, and complete failures. I trade on that, and to me that is also technical analysis. I will say, one of my favorites is Jim Cramer. I know he is a very intelligent individual, but at the same time I have made more money going against his calls, but again, that is in a shorter term than what he maybe looking at, but it has served me well in my IRA accounts.
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the above are your words not mine...now, what, in the above quote, entails a methodical and objective rules-based approach to trading

if I were to give the rules to my system to 10 different people, they would all come up with the exact same entries and exits

rt454 · Feb 14, 2013

Quote from HurricaneUS:

if I were to give the rules to my system to 10 different people, they would all come up with the exact same entries and exits
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People will generally do that at first but then the desire to "tweak" it and make it better overwhelms them. They start making changes and soon their system doesn't look much like yours anymore.

Eyez · Feb 14, 2013

Quote from TheMagican:

And you are an ardent TA screw up,aren`t you?Otherwise,you wouldn`t be so angry at those who got it.
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Got what exactly? Shit?

Challenge is open to anyone bashing the TA crowd.

Put up or shut up (in real-time); it's really that simple.

If you can't do it in real-time, You are full of shit.

The reluctance to do this in real-time only validates my point that you are all full of shit.

P.S. You're full of shit.

hard kore · Feb 14, 2013

category 5 shit storm under way.

Eyez · Feb 14, 2013

Quote from trader198:

TA is an after -fact anaylysis amusement. do not be obsessed with that.

TA traders are contrarians. when they saw price fell to a point it stops, then bounce, they say that is support, so when it falls to the low again, they predict: it will bounce again. he, that is nice. it is predictable.

or when it falls to the low again, it breaks through the low, they will say that is breakdown. so they predict: next time, if we see it falls to new low again, we sell. you see "I am smart", I can predict its breakdown.

can you predict the market? no.

some TA traders may argue: this setup can produce 80% chance of winning, and they rigiously backtested TA ideas. their prediction is 80% right. so in the long run, if we execute the system good enough time, we will win.

but they forget: their historical data is limited, plus new data forward is not tested, the probability so obtained is not correct, or serevely biaed.

I often laugh at how those geeks do trading like that. what I know is TA does not work at all. it is just a tool to measure facts.

just a ruler, used to measure height or length.

for example, put a EMA on a chart, you will see a smooth trend. beautiful math curve!! filter out lots of noises, make you see clear.

nothing more than that. a nice curve will not make you money.

in reality, they twist the facts with simple math, no wonder they lose.
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Would you like to back up your superior trading skills in real-time? Or are you full of shit aswell? (My TA is betting on the latter)

etfarb · Feb 14, 2013

Quote from marketsurfer:

You see it on the surf report regularly, in real time, before the fact. Are you afraid to post before the fact calls? Remember, you don't make the rules, the market does and it has no interest in you. Otherwise you wouldn't be following me around trying to get attention.
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Surf,

I clicked through 44 pages of this BS and this thread was nothing but bicker... I'm still waiting for the other 3 reasons you were going to provide from your original post...