Why is listing reasons why I don't believe in TA being a negatron? There are many ways to trade, some simply make more sense than others. surf
XSPURT <b> To say TA doesn't work as a means of quantifying risk reward ratios is like saying no one can win at gambling. You might be a sore loser, but that doesn't mean there aren't happy winners.</b> You do this by looking at a chart? surf
surfer, I don't care if some traders don't believe in TA, at the end of the dyy there is no point arguing about TA, whether trading is a worthwile endeavour etc. I just wonder, if you don't use some TA, what do you do ? Are you an algo trader ? tape reader ? don't tell me you are a fundamental trader ! But I will say this the examples of TA you give tell me you either have an agenda to discredit TA (which I don't think is the case) or you haven' t done enough work to understand TA, or you just gave obvious examples of things that DON'T work. There are many things that don't work, a lot of TA is B.S it doesn't mean TA is worthless.
Asked Surf in his journal yesterday: if TA is not objective, then what is an objective, quantifiable method of market analysis?
I'll let the group answer this one, Cornix. Once again, a very insightful question. My thought is TA can be used in an objective manner but when it is, it fails to produce results that are any better than random. See David Aronson's book- Evidence Based TA-- When an edge is shown in TA ( usually over the long term) it is never enough to cover the costs of the trades over a statistically relevant time series. BUT TRADERS like yourself claim that you have 50 winning trades so that I should believe TA works? OR that you are profitable--- just like anything else, it's surviorship bias--- just like some gamblers beat the casino regardless of the known negative odds--- this is why you can't use your anecdotal evidence as evidence. Please define what you mean when you say TA. That would be a good place to start a useful discussion. surf
I am glad you understand that I do not religiously defend one analytical approach versus another, but rather seek for the truth. Would be interesting to read possible answers indeed and I even have one myself: arbitrage opportunities are completely objective and quantifiable as well as other "mispricing" phenomenons so to say. I used to exploit a couple of such edges myself back in 2005/6 (they soon disappeared though which is typical for this kind of an edge). Have one question to you in relation to Linda Raschke as far as LBRgroup was mentioned: she clearly states usefulness of TA and she's a legit trader. What do you think about this case: new market wizard openly saying she uses TA?