The automation is engaged and as I said I won't claim anything yet as long as it is not finished although I can give an idea as already posted here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=26107 "Win/Loss ratio > 3 to 10+, only 3 points stop and %>75 with AUTOMATIC TRADE ? Yeah I know that seems totally impossible especially with 3 points of stop on dow yes you read it 3 absolute points not 3% of course . This is not a claim yet, what I will do is next year launch the programming of the Baby Trader, why the "Baby" because he will be capable to auto-learn. At the beginning the stop will be 10 points instead of 3 points but I know that statistically 3 points is possible, nevertheless I will let some room during his learning process as he will commit some errors at the beginning but as he will improve the stop will be tighten. Moreover he must be able to pick the exact top and or bottom let's say 50% of the time at the beginning of his learning and only the top or the bottom and over 70% of the time for both the top and bottom after a few weeks/months I don't know yet."
Financial industry is very retarded - by satisfying with such simplistic ratio as sharpe ratio - compared to real industries. For example FTA and FMEA are not known but will probably become a fashion in a few dozen years : that's the time it generally takes. Software industry used to have also a retard but is now more and more adopting quality methods used in traditional industries with some adaptations of course. As for finance I doubt that they can do more swiftly than software field. <IMG SRC=http://www.1stnclass.com/images/Image11.gif> Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) The first of these techniques is most commonly known by the terms Fault Tree Analysis or Failure Tree Analysis. It gets its names from the graphic construct used to guide the thought process to arrive at the cause(s) of a system's malfunction. The branching structure of this graphic aid resembles the structure of a tree or root system. A similar branching structure often used for stimulating the thought processes in team-oriented problem solving sessions, with which the reader may be more familiar, is the Cause and Effect diagram or "fish bone diagram." Fault Tree Analysis is inherently a top-down thought process. It starts with a single mode of malfunction or adverse outcome in the subject system, then works its way down through all the subsystems, components and conditions of the system which could contribute to this malfunction. A resulting solution (possible cause) at the end of one of the branches might be found to be a single component, environmental condition or functional characteristic, or it might be the interaction of a combination or plurality of any or all of these elements. More than one hypothetical solution usually results when a complex system is analyzed. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) The other commonly used technique for risk analysis is usually identified by the names Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) or Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA). The latter designation cites a key element of the technique, the assignment of relative measures of severity (criticality) to various modes of failure. In the automotive industry, the term Potential Failure Mode and Effects Analysis is used6 in recognition of the fact that this is a primarily predictive technique. The FMEA technique considers each item that comprises the total system. Analysis is made, based both on best expert opinion and historical information for similar items, of all the ways that each component or subsystem might fail to fulfill its intended function. Each of these potential failure modes is then assigned a relative ranking on a numeric classification scale. This ranking process takes into account three separate aspects of each failure mode. One ranking is assigned with regard to the relative probability that the particular failure mode being ranked will occur. The failure mode is also ranked for the relative severity of its worst potential resulting outcome regarding safety or functionality of the system. The third relative ranking number assigned is for the probability that the failure mode will be detected and/or corrected by the applicable controls. One of the most unique and powerful aspects of the FMEA process is the assignment of these relative measures of occurrence, severity and detection. These three numeric rankings are multiplied together for each failure mode to provide an overall relative risk factor for the subject failure mode. When this numeric measure of relative risk is considered for each predicted potential failure mode, we can quickly identify those features of the existing system design that are most likely to cause safety, reliability or quality problems.
Harry, Go and do your little Pi problem of a couple of weeks ago. When you're done, then humbly come back with modestly quoting great names like Lyapounov and Feynman and babbling about Nobel prizes. Right now you are a mathematical windbag. A scientific nobody. Stop making a fool of yourself by always quoting mathematician's books in the signature of your posts. nononsense
Harry: You forgot to give the source of this interesting article (James B. Elliott, PE, CQE on http://www.1stnclass.com/risk_analysis.htm) - if you forget, people might think this excellent summary is yours.
harrytrader wrote: > time, as for my equations is in fact an illusion or one can say that time is an artefact that comes from movement or activity. Yes, time is defined as the direction of increasing entropy. Now why do we remember (have memories of) the past and not the future? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from mujotrader: > http://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/9406028 ....
I didn't show you yet it does not only backward to the past but also into to future "Back to the Future" isn't that a film
Oh what a surprise market did correct right away at the opening from this forecasted top; the updated forecast today confirmed by giving LT=10734.5 ~ High of the day=open=10735.18~previous close Pure coïncidence of course <IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=430295>
See "Orthogonality and the DRY Principle" http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=430343#post430343
Have added something more visual <IMG SRC=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=430537> The merlin wizard gives the analysis. The man on the tea pot filled with gold transforms merlin's analysis into a trading plan. The snake represents the "poke yoke" (Luto's thread): http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...yoke#post422879 The engine is not finished yet: for example the target can be refined further but it gives an idea.