You should delete the words "long term". Watch how the behaviour of the S&P changed. The last 15 years we had 2 huge drawdowns within 10 years. That never happened before. It took more than 8 years to make a new high after 2000, and only a few weeks later this position went in losses again with a drawdown of around 50%. It took 13 years after the high of 2000 before we really went higher. Long term trend following did not perform anything at all in these periods.
I think there is a language interpretation issue here. Fact 1 "Overnight" is not literal and commonly used to mean short term. Fact 2. Covels book referenced by you is proven history. It really did happened and is mostly verified. The book tells the story of these people and how they did it. Surf
I NEVER told these stories are not true, I just told that these were 23 amongst maybe 500 or more candidates. They were SELECTED, which means that not everybody or rather almost NOBODY fitted the required qualifications. In other words: what these 23 did cannot lead to the automatical reflection that EVERYBODY can do this. It is like telling daytrading is profitable. There also the majority will no succeed. But in that case you take the complete opposite vision.
Geez, dude, how dense are you? It's obvious I was talking about SAR, not TF in general. The claim was that Henry's strategy stopped working and I proposed that if indeed he was using SAR, that would explain what happened. No way could anybody interpret that as criticism of all TF unless he (i.e., you) was pushing an agenda. Still pretending to be an expert on TF, are you?
kut2k2, just ignore Covel. He's selling something that he doesn't actually believe in. Sort of like a used car salesman.
Ok fair enough--- and i agree with you that it is book selling hyperbole. Do u know that the publisher ( not the author) chooses the cover and the verbiage? Just saying
I guess that's a matter of opinion. I've read most of his books and don't recall many strategy specifics, but he did write a short piece "Trade trends successfully, here’s how" some years ago.
MrBrowser, he says that losing half your money is "useful". Presumably losing all your money is very "useful". What can you say to some one who says that?