Sure - I dont think this or any mechanical system will work all the time. If the markets were that easy... That doesnt mean that it will never work again. What I mean is there could well be year after year where the markets arent trending - or not enough of them to cover the losses from the false starts. CTA performance hasnt been great these last few years. It would be interesting to see for example if the method would have kept you in the CL decline. On a side note, an acquaintance of mine works for one of the lager CTA's. He said only around 2-3 out of 10 trades make money on their main fund.
Here's the sad story of another original turtle. http://turtletrader.com/curtis-faith-performance/ ounces world movement. 2012: Curtis Michael: “I am out of money. None at all. Well, $27 in my pocket.
Of course the Turtles worked. It's just a form of trend following. I hope that you are not arguing that trend following doesn't work.
I think he is arguing that the turtle trading system doesn't work and I would have to agree. I tried it on metastock years ago and it was horrendous, absolute rubbish strategy even when something was trending!
Eh? Curtis Faith was the most successful turtle. He made $30m for himself. Unfortunately he lost most of his money starting up tech companies. He's written some books which are worth reading.
man, that's rough. I wonder what happened to him? He was an active ET poster with the name inflector for years.