No. I am arguing against the idea that momentum in any direction increases your odds of profits prior to your entry. In other words if the market moves up 3 or whatever --are the odds greater than 50/50 thst the next whatever will be in the same direction??
The "cogent" answers are untestable platitudes, appeals to authority or personal anecdotes--- sorry those things don't work in my world. surf
Maybe you should look at this in another way. Are there trends one can observe after the fact in a broad array of markets? Of course. If so, can those random unpredictable trends (measured after the fact) be captured enough via simple robust systems and applied mechanically to give off a positive ME? Sure. Of course those simple robust systems might give off 60% losing trades as there is no one way to predict which of your entries will pan out. That means after the fact your winners must be significantly larger than those whipsawed losers.
Geeez-- that dude creeps me out. With that said, it sounds like random entries would produce the same results. Cut your losses mechanically and let your winners run with the "trend". I call this money management.
No evidence for more money. I saw this guy in the flesh circa 2001. It was easy to draw conclusions that there was no there there. The saddest aspect to his case are probably the numbers of people that attached to him thinking his "resume" would lead to gold (many are or were posters in ET). They never bothered to really look at that resume. They just assumed.
ES is no more or less quirky than VN! As they say in Asia, same same. They both happen to share very similar big picture econ views (which I admire).
TF trader David Harding on random: http://www.cnbc.com/2014/07/25/random-stock-picking-will-beat-sp-fund-manager.html http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000295763
Yeah. Maybe both quirky but the ed sex stuff is just plain weird-/ but thats my opinion -- google him to see what i mean. But no doubt, he is brilliant. surf
Bullshit. I gave you numbers based on your example. But go ahead, keep pretending like your question hasn't been answered. It's your M.O. when you don't like the truth. You're the same guy who said trends only exist in the past. So by your own admission, you can't find trends in the present. No cure for that liability.