Why has the turtle trend-following system stop working?

Discussion in 'Professional Trading' started by helpme_please, Aug 8, 2015.

  1. Mtrader

    Mtrader

    At your age it is too late to start to learn what is needed. :eek: Especially because you should start from zero. The chapiter in the course where you should blow up your account you can skip. You did that already, with others people money apparently but we don't want to be too harsh on you, so we will pretend it was your money. :D
    But I know you are a believer and really motivated to become a succesful trendfollower. Maybe try it in your next life? :confused:



    And start more early of course.
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2015
    #111     Aug 14, 2015
  2. kut2k2

    kut2k2

    LOL. You keep asking the wrong questions. And at this point, given your attitude, nobody is overeager to tell you what the right ones are.

    Just remember: insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2015
    #112     Aug 14, 2015
  3. When i test the stock or index futures market, the tendency is clear to mean revert , not trend.

    I would like to know what you see to tell you that going with the prevailing direction at the time is edge creating rather than snide remarks.

    If u flip a coin 10 times and get heads 10 times, are u in a heads trend?

    surf
     
    #113     Aug 14, 2015
  4. Speculate

    Speculate

    Buying S&P when VIX > 25.

    Or,

    Buy the dow stocks, sell Dow futs for a market neutral position and sit and watch the dividends roll in. Income with almost no risk/price risk exposure.

    You can go get the data if you need to. Im sure its easy enough for a chap of your intellect and resources :)

    There are many more of course.

    Next question?...
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2015
    #114     Aug 14, 2015
  5. Speculate

    Speculate

    I thought the same. The guy has clearly lost it. Poor chap.

    Unfortunately, America has a bad history of locking up the insane with criminals. I really dont know much about this particular case, but perhaps we should consider the burglary or what ever it was that got him in jail was a result of insanity??

    Either way, as a trader, he probably made more money than most on this thread, so I guess those who live in glass houses....
     
    #115     Aug 14, 2015
  6. Mtrader

    Mtrader

    You should change your tests, they are not valid.

    Of course everybody would like to see that. But those who can show will not. Seems logic. You don't even want to give away in what matters your wife is a worldstar, but want others to give away the secret to their income.

    If you compare this with trading and trend then it is clear why you are not successful. You don't even understand the most basic about markets.
    You cannot optimize your changes in flipping coins, the only thing that you can do is flip the coin, waiting will change nothing. In trading you can wait to optimize your chances, that's a huge difference. And timing changes your chances, because prices move all the time. If you buy at the opening at 2000, or 10 minutes later at 2002 your chances change, so you can influence the outcome with timing. There will be a 2 points difference, that is undeniable proof. If you flip the coin at the opening or 10 minutes later the outcome will not change. So there is a HUGE difference between flipping coins and trading.
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2015
    #116     Aug 14, 2015
    dartmus likes this.
  7. kut2k2

    kut2k2

    LMAO! This is priceless.

    You keep asking the same stupid question over and over and over again, all the while ignoring cogent answers you've been given multiple times in the past.

    I couldn't make this stuff up if I tried my hardest. :D
     
    #117     Aug 14, 2015
    dartmus, justrading and samuel11 like this.
  8. Trend Following

    Trend Following Sponsor

    As a stand alone strategy trend following does not work? Not sure how that conclusion is drawn.
     
    #118     Aug 14, 2015
  9. Trend Following

    Trend Following Sponsor

    Are you arguing against the existence of momentum?
     
    #119     Aug 14, 2015

  10. ok, thank you for the compliment on annaland -- if these ideas work for you, then great. Peace. Surf
     
    #120     Aug 14, 2015