I figured an anti-trend following guy like you would like this thread so far (at the least the stuff that is civil). Many pros and cons discussed about trend following.
My money is were the trend is. That was and always will be the best place to put it. And if there is no trend it is in the bank.
Yes, i think trend following is far from optimal but am open to and love to learn about all types of trading methods/history. I enjoy your perspective, keep up the good work. surf
But ya only know if the trend is your friend after u enter the trade. Before you enter, it is irrelevant imo.
One day we get VN on my podcast. Had Toby Crabel on. He was great. Gave high praise on my show for VN.
No, I enter only when there is already a trend. I don't anticipate, like you do. And the trend is ALWAYS my friend, that's because of the definition of trend. The trend always wins.
Even geometric brownian motion, which seems to be the best market model currently, produces patterns which look like trends, in hindsight.