hope anyone in japan long tocom gold has been able to hedge in some other market ... what a blood bath ! for that matter the music stopped for comex metals too ... market now trying to find support under the $500 level it initially held 500 in feb tonight and in spot last night but it looks like the smart money has been selling the rallies , just like it was buying the dips on the way up to 540 area
typical........... all they want is zero currency movement, zero interest rates, zero inflation, zero deflation, zero income growth, zero monetary growth............ so the TOCOM boyz couldn't handle the gold action so they double margin rates and kamakaze the market I have said before that the central bankers will do everything possible to keep gold from becoming money.......
www.tocom.or.jp/souba/gold I still don't get it ... Oct 2006 most active gold futures on TOCOM here in USA its FEB 2006 most active on comex and ecbot
new thoughts...the gold stocks are way stronger than i thought. thought they would correct hard amid the drop in gold and general weakness in the broad stock market. ha, well boy was i wrong. many started to break out to new highs. i'm long term bullish on gold and tried some shorts on the very morning of gold's peak mid december on the 12th. after showing some promise, lots of my shorts ended up being mild losses. it makes sense though, for these stocks. AUY for example is on track to produce 400,000 oz. if prices remain at the $500/oz level AUY will reap approximately 100,000,000 in profit. based on those earnings, a valuation of 30 times earnings (standard for the industry) would put the share price at $18. if gold manages a $600 average price for 2006, then $25 should be achievable. better yet, production is set to reach 650,000 oz in 2008.
Hey, just for shits and giggles, where is the current producer price breakeven for gold? Back in '92 or so it was about $420. I saw some yahoo state it was $250 - that guy didn't know crap. Anyone know the real number right now? THX
totally depends on the producer. a lot of companies list on the web sites and in their calls how much it costs to extract. i think Yamana (AUY) is aiming for about 250/oz. EGO is closer to 300-350. I have some of their estimated costs and production targets in a spread sheet somewhere...
where to begin..... Currently, gold fundamentals are good. Demand exceeds supply. Even at current prices - production is falling in most countries: South Africa, Australia and Germany. The US dollar is under pressure because of budget and trade deficits. To wit, the US is burning $10,000 per second financing it's current debt load of 8 trillion and change (that's 600k a minute, 3.6 million per hour, or 864 million per day). We are borrowing/printing a few billion a day to stay in business. The US has stopped publishing M3 data?? I hear a lot of rhetoric that we are going to stop raising rates a few more quater points down the road. WAKE UP!!! If our interest rates don't continue to go up, - the dollar is going to tank, Japanese and Asians stop financing America and we are no shit, Tapioca (tits up, out of business, fubed.....) People forget that in the 80's. Yes, not that long ago - interest rates were 19% (last time gold was $500). That means a $250.000 mortgage payment goes from say $1600 a month payment to $3995 a month. Over 80% of all Ammericans are on a fixed income . Over 60% of all mortgages in california last year were interest only mortgages. 23% of all real estate purchases in america were on spec. There is a glut of housing and a huge demograpic of people relying on current real estate valuations to finance their retirement ambitions. We are spending 200 million a day in Iraq in a war that makes no sense (now close to 250 billion spent on this liitle escapade). 50+% of americans hate it's current leader who has, incidentally, pissed off just about every country on the entire earth. The yield curve is inverted. A 10 year bond has a lower yield then a 2 year bond which can only mean big money is betting that locking in a shitty rate for 10 years (4.5%) is a better bet then having any money invested short term because the outlook for the near future is dismal. Oil is heading for a hundred bucks a barrel. GM is going bankrupt along with Ford. Apparently , paying 70$ per hour in wages/benefits and $2500 per car in legacy costs aint working. The annual savings rate of the average american is to my best recollection, negative. I am perplexed as to why equities are nearing highs. As far as I can tell, this could extend into the new year, but how could it possibly be sustainable?? Ladies and gentlemen. We are in deep doo doo in my opinion. When gold dipped back under 500$ into support, i backed the truck up...... I'll see you at $1000 an ounce. Buy as much silver and gold as you can fit in your mattress. Vote Quimby
"People forget that in the 80's. Yes, not that long ago - interest rates were 19% (last time gold was $500). That means a $250.000 mortgage payment goes from say $1600 a month payment to $3995 a month. Over 80% of all Ammericans are on a fixed income . Over 60% of all mortgages in california last year were interest only mortgages. 23% of all real estate purchases in america were on spec. There is a glut of housing and a huge demograpic of people relying on current real estate valuations to finance their retirement ambitions." That was an exceptional paragraph. Im convinced. Thats just the investment side of the market, some people rent..........