Why Gold has to go down...

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by PohPoh, Feb 11, 2009.

  1. Daal

    Daal

    Good point. I think this comes from the trader ideology that 'contrarian' equals free money
     
    #71     Feb 15, 2009
  2. Did any of you read any of the analysis that we posted in the Gold's Action forum? There are three of them.

    it's not a question of just being contrarian and shorting gold. It's a question of studying all information available including the charts. The bearish divergences on the chart tell me that gold will have a pullback. As I stated in my analysis (see link above) the last few times we've had the same situation (RSI on the verge of being oversold, bearish divergence) gold went down 100-200 pts.
     
    #72     Feb 15, 2009
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    #73     Feb 15, 2009
  4. Is that a promise? Should I follow your analysis and go short GC or GLD?

    Tell me fast, I'm eager to pull the trigger mate...
     
    #74     Feb 16, 2009
  5. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES TRADING. Those using this information are responsible for their own actions.
     
    #75     Feb 16, 2009
  6. Subdude

    Subdude

    What asset classes are you talking about here? In FX, a 100:1 leverage will earn you 100% of your investment on any move of 1%, long or short. In futures, you can't have that high a leverage, but the logic is similar. No need to let your hair go gray waiting for 50% decline, or gold doubling in price.
     
    #76     Feb 17, 2009
  7. sumosam

    sumosam

    My analysis is also short gold....the gold/oil ratio and the silver/gold ratio is way, way out of wack.....reversion to the mean is what comes next.
     
    #77     Feb 17, 2009
  8. Subdude

    Subdude

    And look at where the dollar is in relation to other currencies - a total disconnect with gold. This gap is unsustainable.
     
    #78     Feb 17, 2009
  9. Disagree. It's the factor decomposition of the assets in the asset-pricing models that count here.

    Silver and oil probably have heavier industrial components than gold and less of a safe-haven component, so the ratio is supposed to go out of wack. Anyone pricing this based on the decomposition of factors and fundamental models knows that gold is worth more. Mean reversion may happen with regard to one factor, but not all factors.

    I hate to antagonize people, so don't take this personally: you shorts are going to lose your shirts on gold. I'll revisit my assessment if I see in dramatic shifts coming out of the factor decompositions.
     
    #79     Feb 17, 2009
  10. Lucrum

    Lucrum

    A lot could happen to derail the current ST trend. But IF it continues, based on the weekly chart, I won't be surprised to see GC around 1080.
     
    #80     Feb 17, 2009