Too many small specs are long... They just can't possibly be right, can they? I know they are cheering here, with gold prices essentially unch year over year... But still... I just can't fathom a time in history when this many people were on the same side of a trade and were right.. Don't get me wrong...I am LONG TERM BULLISH gold...very bullish...but still feel that we will have a day in the next few months where gold falls $200 plus...whether it's from 900 or 1000 is irrelevant...
I would say the outlook on gold has never been more bulish these last 100 years. Be short at your own peril.
I sure hope you are right. As soon as we get that correction, I am going to buy all the gold and silver I can afford. We are expecting someone to buy trillions of dollars of our treasuries that we will never be able to repay. Eventually, the idiots buying them will wise up and stop doing so. Then our bond market will collapse, along with the value of the US dollar. I hope to have my money in gold and silver, rather than worthless greenbacks when that happens. Unfortunately, I'm afraid that the cat is out of the bag and we may not get such a large correction in gold and silver.
That's exactly what i'm saying... I'm long a little bit of physical, and bought some Ap and June puts today...small position.. When something is at 100 year bullish levels, that's generally a good time to sell....
You are suffering from traders paranoia. I have probably lost more money listening to contrarian indicators than any other way
Gold went up more then 2000% in the seventies from what 35$ to 850$? I remember reading how Jim Rogers went short at 600$ then as he perceived gold as a bubble and it still went up 250$ more... Also I believe to have read during bullmarkets in the past each individual commodity reaches a new inflation adjusted high... That should take gold to at least 2200$ an ounce? Also how about gold and the DOW historicaly always reaching near parity during the bottom of the stockmarket etc etc etc Ok maybe I'm to bulish tommorow I will sell some.:eek:
Big risk of inflation in long run. In short run risk of deflation. Everyday I am seeing Obama and Geithner in action I am thinking wow - we really might have a serious depression. Soup lines all over, the whole depression deal. That Obama is letting Pelosi and Reid craft the most important stimulus package since the Great depression is disgusting. If he were a man of lesser intelligence fine. But that is serious abdication of responsibility and we we got is shit. It is not targeted to be the most effective plan he could have made. Instead of fixing the banking system and helping create a workout we are just throwing cash around. Risk of further bank collapse - growing by the day. If all this goes negative - why would I want to hold gold. I am not saying Obama won't save the day and we won't quickly transition to growth and inflation... I am just saying depression is looming larger and larger.
most of these gold buyers are institution as for retail small investors they are better off buying gold coins or jewellry.