Of course the person who is listening to his favourite tune playing inside his head will lose. But I do agree with you - markets are simple if we do not "over analyze" and see ghosts where they are not. I refer to traders who see retracements coming where they are not there and cut their profits and see support where thery are not and initiate a long position to "lost it all". Well, if this was not so, no one would do an honest day's work and leave all the H/R resource departments tearing their hair out !
Because the logarithm of a complex number has an infinite number of solutions. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Riemann_surface_log.jpg You think I am kidding?
I don't know what can be proved related to the market. I do know that any trader that has a formula that works hides it under their pillow each and every night. Why would anyone want to call attention to themselves if they actually have a golden goose?
Not even. Give to 100 traders the same golden goose formula and you will get 100 different results, probably normally distributed. Formula is not enough IMO. You got to be at the right place, at the right time, with the right people, have the right amount of money to trade and the right attitude. Just too many parameters must cooperate/cointegrate for success.
What's really funny is what happens when 100 traders trade random systems. Go to the account simulator below, change the Lines Qty to 100 and you will get 100 different outcomes. It's not hard to imagine that the guy with the best line is saying "I have the HG" and the guy with the worst line is saying "trading is rigged, 95% lose".... http://www.hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html 8