Well if there are to be biases in the numbers, then John's figures must lead away from BLS otherwise he would cease to exist, and the gov. bias will naturally lean away from wasting money on indexed people, particularly if they are unlikely to vote for them. However this group is growing too large to ignore and so a little bending of the figures must appear irresistible at times.
Agreed, bottom up is the only way to do it that would be free from media/govt bias. Personally, based on my specific sample (which I admit might not be represenatative), I have definitely seen evidence of food inflation and quite a bit of that. I have not witnessed the other stuff that you have mentioned here and previously. That could be due to the nature of my sample. Yep, so you have to make up your own mind on this. I think we all agree. What I don't like is people in govt succumbing to the media bias and quoting SGS as if it were the bible.
deflation is just the official 'excuse' for 0% interest rate and quantitative easing. so banks don't go bankrupt. from bad loans to real estate speculators etc. if banks go bankrupt the FDIC would go bankrupt and there goes the banking system. price for housing and many things in Japan are 'expensive' there is no deflation in japan or america. deflation is creation of the media. do you see people's wages going down or home prices dropping 30% from the 2007...maximum is only 20% from inflated bubble prices of 2006..a 10% discount is not even a discount. japanese banks are zombie banks like US banks after the real estate crash in their markets in the 90's.....
This is really sad. In the first paragraph you mention Taleb and in the second... well... I guess you should read him a couple of times...
I have read more than enough from him, I assure you... I suppose you think Taleb's the best thing since sliced bread or am I interpreting your comment wrongly?
I do not know what sliced bread means to you. So I'm not in a position to give any evaluation of your interpretation of my comment. The thing is, had you understood Taleb, it would have never crossed your mind to print your second paragraph. I guess here lies the difference between reading and understanding what one is reading.
How can this possibly be true? (1) deflation (assuming the world isn't also deflating) means a higher real rate in US vs the world, therefore a stronger dollar, therefore less competitive export. (2) deflation makes lending more expensive. Not sure what rock you may live under but competing globally requires all sorts of trade (as in ships and invoice date mismatches) financing. (3) deflation drives down domestic demand for consumption since we are all better off holding off purchases until tomorrow. So now we've eroded domestic demand for goods while a strong dollar makes us uncompetitive globally. Congratulations. Deflation looks awesome.