What the f*** are you talking man that is the stupidest thing I've ever heard volatility clustering is a well-known phenomenon have volatility leads to more volatility in long lulls can extend for arbitrary periods of time before they blow up this is volatility clustering in the thing that stochastic models capture nothing to do with a Bollinger band which is another low pass filter applied by idiots who don't know what you're doing. Might as well use the I ching to train
Dude you have to be one of the stupidest people on this forum just do yourself a favor shut the f****** up
The dude in question simply did not model the volatility properly . If you think that merely reaching a level indicates something that are foolish this is why you have to calibrate models or you have to understand the models well enough to calibrate them in your head
You clearly aren't understanding the concept. This is the problem when you learn options math, but you don't have a fundamental understanding of how they work. Reaching a certain level means everything. The fact that you don't realize that speaks volumes. Having volatility clusters is a flaw in the model. High volatility leading to higher volatility should result in lower relative option prices.
Yeah buddy you sure are right you got me there so when are you publishing your proof of the Riemann hypothesis? I was about to publish mine but then you just reminded me that I don't understand anything so I'm going to let you do it now please let me know when it's available. I will also cancel my implementation of the quadratic rough Heston model and completely disregard the demonstrable fact that this model calibrates perfectly with jointly calibrated prices for SPX and VIX even for arbitrarily short duration options to arbitrarily long and by perfect I mean all the projected prices were within the bid ask spread of the quoted price set it was regressed upon. The fact that I achieved 55% returns after taxes with no losses was pure luck and I am lying because that's impossible nobody does that so since your ego won't allow yourself To not understand that someone else does something awesome precludes you from ever achieving similar feats. In that sense you are a victim of yourself and your own mentality. I was trying to teach this punk one time how to trade and he was currently a real estate broker and anyway when I showed him the p&l for the day which was like plus 2K he said how much did you have to pay to make that and I pointed to the other column and he nearly passed out like he couldn't comprehend risking that but that's idiotic I don't know why someone would expect to get something for free Oh yeah and I achieved that while having two artificial disc replacements in my neck and being in chronic pain all the time but this will be just that much more fodder for the movie they inevitably make about me it'll be especially fun to talk about The childish pathetic disgraceful ad hominem personal attacks that people like poopy throw on which merely indicates the mirror of their mind upon which they reflect in the sense that the statements are really about themselves if they say I am profoundly weak he was in fact talking about himself. How hollow and shallow of a psyche must you have to post pictures of a Rolex on a forum with people you don't even know for some bizarre reason it indicates that some people do indeed have a deep seated psychosis rooted in the complete lack of any sort of real values. This probably results subconsciously from a neglect in their early upbringing of some sort or nature or some abuse hurled upon them which they feel they are exercising whenever they carry out behaviors predetermined by their inability to overcome their past and bring consciousness to their own activities
I don't know if I've mentioned this yet but I do have a (2008) Lambo...so you don't need math or an edge to make money....or to outperform the professionals. You just need to be the one running into the burning building while everyone else flees. What your math model is demonstrating and what I believe the Renaissance fund discovered is that the market is determined.
No it shouldn't it should be the exact opposite higher volatility means higher prices also same for volatility of volatility and this is because prices and probabilities are directly related and so what you're referring to is something involving the mean reversion effect involved here and so you're saying since you know it's going to go low again the market should go ahead and price in the future low and ignore the more imminent volatility high that will occur before the low. I believe this is the weak and strong zumbach effect, aka the price feedback effect. More uncertainty always means higher prices in the same way that options dated further into the future have more uncertainty due to them just having more time to travel whatever direction they end up traveling and naturally that's why I usually the futures term structure slopes upwards and when it doesn't it's called backwardation
I understand in Warren Buffett said that be greedy when the market is fearful and be fearful in the market is greedy I've known for the longest time and Taleb says in his book. Go hand out a stack of pennies to collection of 100 monkeys and set up a game where they flip in the winter advances and yada yada and then let them go a few hundred trials well inevitably due to the structure of the game some will end up on top some will end up on bottom The ones who end up on top inevitably and almost always attribute this to their prowess and their understanding and their special status and yada yada so I'm glad you got a badass car to enjoy it's probably a lot of fun I can see how you might conceptualize anything you don't comprehend to be somewhat that but that's merely an association in your mind Renaissance in fact suck the bunch of stodgy old coots and they didn't pay their IT people worth a damn just super cheap given what a massive operation that place supposedly was. Nobody knows how to make a graceful exit so they just smoke cigars and then die I guess. The breakthrough I'm facilitating in the field of Yang Mills theory is literally the probably penultimate theory of everything meaning the next to the last theory of everything the next inclusion of this and to relativity would probably be the ultimate theory of everything and it should actually lucidate the very reason why DNA is the way it is and this also has applications to stochastic processes which are DNA is and which are very beings are also as well so I would expect these developments to facilitate the complete computation of closed form wave functions for every element in the periodic table when presently only that is possible for hydrogen and thus I believe the ensuing advancements would literally allow for the construction of states of energy that when immersed in would result in your literal DNA expression having its copy number errors corrected because this is also a stochastic process in the way that Koenigs theorem in complex dynamics says that any iterated function system which has a geometrically attracting fixed point has a center or a disc around it of some finite radius where the dynamics is very simple and conjugate to a rotation around the center even though the true dynamics outside that disc is wildly chaotic and one would have no hope of ever expecting to predict anything of and so in this way this is the fundamental thing which has the concept of interior of the cell the centromere is an island of stability in a sea of entropy and chaos and it must be in order to exist and involve so the koenig's theorem actually applies to any dynamical system and by having a true model of space-time you can have the dynamical system by which the chromosomes actually exist in and thus one would be able to generate fields who's exposure to oscillations of would result in modulation of the way that the continual division process is continually unfolding that would result in the correction of previous copy number errors in essence providing an upgrade to nature's half-assed job. I'm proof that you don't need to go to an ivy League school to figure this s*** out and in fact this may hinder you