Why does TA not work (for you)?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Xspurt, Aug 4, 2012.

  1. Part of my OHLC progression, combined with a couple other factors, does identify these situations and exploits them. Friday was a good example. I went long at 3:41, after market participants were "leaning" short. Nice way to end the trading day :)

     
    #971     Aug 13, 2012
  2. cornix

    cornix

    No idea smarter or not, as I said I cannot post calls in format of a thread due to fast day-trading nature of my trades. But I'll shows you something around Christmas as I promised, so you can judge if that's plain stupid luck or not. :)

    P. S. Some other traders in this thread (won't point fingers, they will show up themselves if they want) post real-time calls on their own sites for YEARS, probably more years than I ever trade even... If you don't see something, doesn't mean it doesn't exist. :)
     
    #972     Aug 13, 2012
  3. cornix

    cornix

    Great. :)

    My logic is also: any game has two sides and what's great about the market, they cannot hide their actions. Everything they do is shown in price and volume history... And they don't invent the new trick every day, rather have "habits" which create a "market character"... which, consequently, can be read with some experience... Most people are simply too lazy to watch charts for years before starting to see those "habits" aka patterns which happen again and again...
     
    #973     Aug 13, 2012
  4. Fah Q

    Fah Q

    only 998 1/2 trades left to determine if the system is skill or luck.
     
    #974     Aug 13, 2012

  5. Faaaaaaaa Q. Fun with fonetics? Just follow the surf special situation journal to see price drivers in real time, or play in the TA sandbox with woulda coulda shoulda pretty hindsight chart art and bandwagon support. Surf
     
    #975     Aug 13, 2012
  6. Fah Q

    Fah Q

    no thanks. let me know when you have 1000 trades documented and then i'll consider your claims.
     
    #976     Aug 13, 2012
  7. Sure, faaaaaaa q. Read surf report starting in 2002---- way more than 1000 trades documented. Winners overall but some losers too!
    Surf
     
    #977     Aug 13, 2012
  8. Fah Q

    Fah Q

    but that's not the price driver method. 1000 price driver method trades. this method is still very unproven and untested, with a lot of mighty claims.
     
    #978     Aug 13, 2012
  9. dom993

    dom993

    This thread is full of opinions, which no-one really backs-up with anything tangible.


    The attached P&L curve is for a system which trades a specific market inefficiency ... I spotted that inefficiency in June 2011, designed & backtested the system using about 16 months of data, "forward"-tested it on the prior 18 months, and started trading it live right away.

    I recently bought quality historical data from TickData, which clearly shows this inefficiency came to life around July 2007. The trade count to date is about 820, P/F just 1.5.


    Interestingly, Jack Hershey mentioned 1/2 of the underlying market driver in one of his posts in this thread.


    Is 5-years long enough to qualify as "lasting" ?
     
    #979     Aug 13, 2012
  10. dom993

    dom993


    BTW, that market inefficiency has been very weak in the past few months ... the most likely reason for it is structural, and has really nothing to do with Surf's reasoning.
     
    #980     Aug 13, 2012